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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Aug-2014
10-Aug-14 World View -- New Delhi TV accidentally gets video of Hamas rocket launch in Gaza

Web Log - August, 2014

10-Aug-14 World View -- New Delhi TV accidentally gets video of Hamas rocket launch in Gaza

'Salami slicing tactics' by Russia and China risk wider war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Georgia / Armenia ethnic hatreds spiral after church incident
'Salami slicing tactics' by Russia and China risk wider war
New Delhi TV accidentally gets video of Hamas rocket launch in Gaza

Georgia / Armenia ethnic hatreds spiral after church incident

Surb Etchmiadzin Armenian Church in Tbilisi, Georgia

Surb Etchmiadzin Armenian Church in Tbilisi, Georgia

Long-standing conflicts between Georgia and Armenia were inflamed two weeks ago over a parking incident, when a Georgian woman's complaint -- that her car was blocked by an Armenian clergyman's car -- turned into an ethnically and racially charged clash involving some 50 people. The clash occurred at the Surb Etchmiadzin Armenian Church, located in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. The Georgian Orthodox Church and the Armenian Apostolic Church are among the most ancient in the world, going back to the dawn of Christianity, and have played a part in the formation of their respective nations, so it's not surprising that the Churches easily become involved in ethnic hatreds. The countries fought a major border war in 1918 in the aftermath of World War I, and discords have been particularly severe since 1989, when a Georgian cathedral in Tbilisi was built on land that the Armenians claim was an Armenian cemetery. In the latest incident, an investigation concluded that the parking incident was a purely personal matter, and had not risen to the level of hate crime. Asbarez (Armenia) and Jamestown

'Salami slicing tactics' by Russia and China risk wider war

Both Russia and China have been practicing a "salami slicing strategy" to annex territories belonging to other countries. Russia has already annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, and is threatening to annex eastern Ukraine and Moldova's Transnistria region.

China has annexed several islands and shoals in the South China Sea belonging to Vietnam and the Philippines, and is threatening to annex other territories belonging to Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Japan.

In each case, the aggressor nation is counting on the fact that the annexation action is sufficiently small, that it can count on the West's weakness to do nothing about it. In the long run, the purpose of the strategy is annex larger and larger regions, based on the assumption that the West will just look on helplessly.

This assumption, however, is based on a misreading of how democratic politics interacts with security dynamics. Aggressors perceive -- correctly, in the short run -- that pluralism renders democracies risk-averse. Citizens tend to be apathetic towards distant events which appear to have little relevance to their lives. For democratic leaders, the political costs of firm action thus tend to prevent firm strategy. Initial successes in the salami slicing strategy encourage aggressor leaders to confuse apathy among democratic publics with an unwillingness to react to perceived security threats.

However, democratic public opinion can shift very quickly. Incorrect assumptions and initial successes may lead an aggressor to walk blindly into actions which, retrospectively, turn out to have crossed a line that's too threatening for the democratic public to ignore.

The shooting down of Malaysia Airlines 17 (MH17) illustrates how things can go wrong. The shootdown didn't lead to a wider war, but it might have. The salami slicing tactics might, at any time, have an unexpected consequence that spirals into full scale war. Lowy Interpreter

New Delhi TV accidentally gets video of Hamas rocket launch in Gaza

On the day before the beginning of last week's ceasefire in the Gaza war, a team of reporters from New Delhi TV (NDTV) in Gaza noticed a mysterious tent with a blue canopy that popped up just outside their hotel window. They surmised that the three men around the tent were constructing a rocket to be launched into Israel. They filmed the entire activity, from setup to launch. The launch was in a heavily populated area in Gaza city, and the activity put in danger the reporters themselves, as well as anyone living in the area, from Israeli missile retaliation. The reporters noted that there were several open areas nearby, so putting the launch site into a heavily populated area unnecessarily risked the lives of innocent Palestinians. The reporters decided that the story was too important not to air, even though they risked retaliation from Hamas. They also received severe condemnation from other journalists and officials who accused them of helping Israel. New Delhi TV and YouTube

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Aug-14 World View -- New Delhi TV accidentally gets video of Hamas rocket launch in Gaza thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (10-Aug-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Aug-2014 10-Aug-14 World View -- New Delhi TV accidentally gets video of Hamas rocket launch in Gaza

Georgia / Armenia ethnic hatreds spiral after church incident

'Salami slicing tactics' by Russia and China risk wider war

New Delhi TV accidentally gets video of Hamas rocket launch in Gaza

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Aug-2014
10-Aug-14 World View -- New Delhi TV accidentally gets video of Hamas rocket launch in Gaza