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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-Aug-2014
31-Aug-14 World View -- Coup possible in Pakistan after night of violence

Web Log - August, 2014

31-Aug-14 World View -- Coup possible in Pakistan after night of violence

Russian troops threaten Ukraine's entire coastline

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Hong Kong threatened with riots as China reneges on democracy
Coup possible in Pakistan after night of violence
Russian troops threaten Ukraine's entire coastline
Colleges preparing to screen incoming students for Ebola

Hong Kong threatened with riots as China reneges on democracy

On 1 July tens of thousands marched against candidate restrictions in the territory. Tens of thousands held pro-Beijing rallies on August 17. (AP)

On 1 July tens of thousands marched against candidate restrictions in the territory. Tens of thousands held pro-Beijing rallies on August 17. (AP)

Tens of thousands of activists in Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement are threatening an "Occupy Central" civil disobedience protest on Sunday. Threatened actions could include a boycott of university classes, wildcat street protests, strikes and a mass refusal to pay taxes.

They are objecting to China's apparent reneging on the 1997 agreement under which Hong Kong as a British colony reverted to Chinese control. The deal was known as "one country, two systems," meaning that Beijing would pursue Communism and Socialism, while Hong Kong would retain its democracy, its capitalist system, and its way of life. According to the agreement, this policy would be in effect for 50 years, until 2047.

However, now China is demanding that the schedule 2017 elections be tightly controlled. They will be "free" elections, but the only candidates who will be permitted to be run have to be approved a "nominating committee" completely controlled by Beijing. The city's population is split between the pro and anti-Beijing protesters, which could result in violence. Thousands of police are expected to be on hand on Sunday.

China says that it has "comprehensive jurisdiction" over Hong Kong, and that any attempt to implement "international standards" of democracy would only cause economic and social chaos, without bringing any benefit to the interests of the Hong Kong people. Reuters and BBC and Xinhua (Beijing)

Coup possible in Pakistan after night of violence

Hundreds of people were injured in Islamabad on Saturday, as tens of thousands of supporters of political opposition leaders Imran Khan and cleric Tahirul Qadri continued the protest that began several weeks ago. ( "20-Aug-14 World View -- Pakistan's army called to quell massive anti-government protest")

The protesters began by storming Pakistan's parliament building, and then changed directions towards the house of prime minister Nawaz Sharif. At tis point, the police turned against the protesters, with the result of the worst violence in Pakistan's 67 year history.

It's suspected, though not proven, that army chief Gen. Raheel Sharif is supporting the demonstrations. The army chief has publicly taken a central role in the political crisis by offering to mediate, and the army chief is known to be furious at the prime minister for the latter's prosecution of former prime minister Pervez Musharraf for "high treason." Musharaff was an army general who became prime minister in 1999 by means of a coup that deposed and exiled the current prime minister Nawaz Sharif. After Musharaff stepped down, Sharif became prime minister again and imprisoned Musharaff, who is still under house arrest.

Saturday's riots raise concerns that Nawaz Sharif will now be forced to step down again, and the army will once again be in control of Pakistan's government, in what would essentially be an army coup. BBC and Dawn (Pakistan) and Guardian (London) and BBC

Russian troops threaten Ukraine's entire coastline

Ukraine - thousands of Russian troops have crossed the border and appear poised for an attack on the port city of Mariupol. It's feared that Russian troops will join with troops already in Crimea, continue all the way to Odessa, and connect with separatist Moldovans in Transnistria in eastern Moldova

Ukraine - thousands of Russian troops have crossed the border and appear poised for an attack on the port city of Mariupol. It's feared that Russian troops will join with troops already in Crimea, continue all the way to Odessa, and connect with separatist Moldovans in Transnistria in eastern Moldova

Ukraine's army is bracing itself for an assault by Russian forces on the coastal port city of Mariupol. Russian separatist forces in Ukraine, bolstered by an invasion of thousands of Russian soldiers that have crossed the border from Russia, are established about halfway between Mariupol and the Russian border. Ukrainian forces are are reinforcing checkpoints and digging trenches in anticipation of an attack.

With thousands of Russian troops already taking part, European leaders are warning about an escalation. Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko calls it a "full-scale invasion."

Lithuania's President Dalia Grybauskaite said, "Russia is at war against Ukraine and that is against a country which wants to be part of Europe. Russia is practically in war against Europe." European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso says that the situation "has worsened considerably," and added:

"We may see a situation where we reach the point of no return. If the escalation of the conflict continues, this point of no return can come."

However, Russia's president Vladimir Putin appeared to be mocking and threatening Europe with these comments on Friday when he said:

"Russia is far from being involved in any large-scale conflicts. We don't want that and don't plan on it. But naturally, we should always be ready to repel any aggression towards Russia.
Russia's partners ... should understand it's best not to mess with us. Thank God, I think no one is thinking of unleashing a large-scale conflict with Russia. I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers."

Putin's message is simple: Russian forces have already attacked and annexed Crimea, Russian forces are preparing to launch an attack on Mariupol, and Russian forces will continue to whatever he wants them to do, and no one will stop them.

Barroso's comment about a "point of no return" is quite real. Putin is crossing one red line after another, and keeps getting away with it. But if he keeps doing that, then at some point he's going trigger what in generational theory is called a "regeneracy," a kind of panic that causes the population to put politics aside and unite, usually behind a military leader. A financial panic is similar. The panic is triggered because of a sudden fear that the society or its way of life is facing an existential threat that must be conquered.

This kind of panic could not have happened during the 1980s or 1990s, because survivors of World War II were still running the world, and when survivors of the previous generational crisis war are still in charge, then the society is resilient to this panic. But as the WW II survivors disappear, the society becomes less resilient, and the right kind of event can trigger a panic and a war. That will be the "point of no return" that Barroso is referring to.

I used to think that it would be China or the Mideast that would trigger the next world war. But as Putin crosses one red line after another in Ukraine and Syria as the world goes deeper into a generational Crisis era, it may well be that Putin is the one that history will blame for starting World War III. CNN and BBC and Reuters

Colleges preparing to screen incoming students for Ebola

Thousands of college students from West Africa, especially the countries of Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Nigeria, where the Ebola pandemic is out of control in some areas, may be subjected to screening for Ebola when they arrive at their colleges in the next couple of weeks. The odds any arriving students having Ebola, or of infecting anyone else, are almost nonexistent, but the screening process is considered a necessary precaution. "Parents are comforted to know that there is a screening process, that we are alert for it, that we are prepared for it," according to one college official. AP and Boston Public Health Commission (PDF)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-Aug-14 World View -- Coup possible in Pakistan after night of violence thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (31-Aug-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-Aug-2014 31-Aug-14 World View -- Coup possible in Pakistan after night of violence

Hong Kong threatened with riots as China reneges on democracy

Coup possible in Pakistan after night of violence

Russian troops threaten Ukraine's entire coastline

Colleges preparing to screen incoming students for Ebola

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-Aug-2014
31-Aug-14 World View -- Coup possible in Pakistan after night of violence