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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Sep-2014
13-Sep-14 World View -- Palestinians divided over taking Israel to International Criminal Court

Web Log - September, 2014

13-Sep-14 World View -- Palestinians divided over taking Israel to International Criminal Court

Little visible support for American coalition to fight ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Israel to investigate its own possible war crimes in Gaza war
Palestinians divided over taking Israel to International Criminal Court
Little visible support for American coalition to fight ISIS

Israel to investigate its own possible war crimes in Gaza war

Silhouettes of Israeli soldiers in Gaza, July 12, 2014 (DPA)

Silhouettes of Israeli soldiers in Gaza, July 12, 2014 (DPA)

Israel's Defense Force (IDF) has launched criminal problems over several incidents involving it soldiers during the Gaza war. In a July 16 incident, Israeli forces fired on a beach in Gaza City, killing four children who were playing there. Just over a week later, a UN school in the northern city of Beit Hanun was shelled by the Israelis, killing at least 15 people.

This will be part of an overall review by IDF. There will be 12 main review teams, each headed by a high-level IDF officer. Among the issues being reviewed are: the use of firepower during the operation; the maneuvering of ground forces; the IDF's readiness to deal with the tunnel threat; the decision to amass forces at a staging ground despite it being within range of mortar fire; the use of obsolete armored personnel carriers in fighting; intelligence; air defense; and coordination between the air, ground and naval forces.

Pro-Hamas activists are condemning the investigations as a "masquerade" that will lead to a "whitewash."

Another motive attributed to Israel is to head off an investigation by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Generally speaking, the ICC can gain jurisdiction over war crimes cases only if the country involved is unwilling or unable to investigate itself. Deutsche Welle and Israel Hayom

Palestinians divided over taking Israel to International Criminal Court

Senior Hamas official Ismail Haniyeh is pressuring Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority (PA/Fatah), to sign a document that would give the International Criminal Court (ICC) jurisdiction to investigate alleged war crimes by Israel in the recent Gaza war. In a press statement, Haniyeh said:

"The Palestinian factions and Palestinian community all agree on the need for Abbas to go to the ICC and sign the Rome Statute in order to prosecute the leaders of the Zionist enemy for their crimes committed against the Palestinian people. ...
Hamas signed the document urging Abbas to sign the Rome Statute, and the signing of this is the right of all the victims. Stalling the signing of the Statute is considered a concession of their rights and offensive to the Palestinian people and their struggle."

Haniyeh's remarks come as pro-Hamas officials and activists express puzzlement and outrage that Abbas in August explicity refused to sign the document that would give ICC jurisdiction over Israel's alleged war crimes. Abbas is the head of the Hamas-Fatah unity government, and so his approval is required before the ICC can act on any document provided by the Palestinians.

Various reports give several possible reasons for Abbas's refusal:

One analyst suggested that the ICC submission was a major piece of leverage that Abbas holds in negotiations with the Israelis, and that Abbas wants to hold it back until it can be used with maximum effect.

Several analysts suggested that Abbas had made an under-the-table deal with Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This is possible, and not as sinister as it seems, because an ICC submission would probably mean the end of all negotiations, and Abbas would really like to restart the "peace process" negotiations.

Opening an ICC investigation against Israel would also trigger an ICC investigation against war crimes by Hamas, and it's believed that Israel has collected a great deal of unpublished evidence of Hamas shooting rockets indiscriminately into Israel from heavily populated Gaza neighborhoods, which would itself be a war crime. As we reported in July, Palestinian lawyers have expressed concern that Hamas would be found guilty of war crimes, while Israel would escape because the Israeli army warned Gaza people to evacuate their homes before they were bombed.

Another reason is related to the Mideast realignment following the Gaza war that we've written about in several articles. There is a growing fault line separating Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus PA/Fatah versus Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey. To put it bluntly, Abbas considers Hamas to be his enemy, and does not want to empower Hamas in a way that would happen if Abbas enabled an ICC war crime investigation of Israel. Ma'aN News (Bethlehem) and Middle East Eye and Middle East Monitor and Israel National News

Little visible support for American coalition to fight ISIS

The plans announced in President Obama's Wednesday speech to form a "coalition of the willing" to fight the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) have been running into some roadblocks.

Turkey made a surprise announcement on Thursday that it would not be participating, and would not allow American warplanes to use its air bases. Turkey has internal political considerations, and ISIS is holding 49 Turkish diplomats as hostages.

Arab states, including Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, are reluctant to participate because they would face retaliation by jihadist terrorist groups. Nato allies Britain and Germany are also reluctant, and France is completely ruling out participation. Politicians in many countries note that President Obama has reneged on commitments before, and so many of these countries are reluctant to commit their own resources when it's not clear that Obama is fully committed.

It's possible that some of these countries will provide "quiet cooperation," but right now it looks like America will be the only country performing air strikes, and no country except Iraq will provide combat troops. I have not heard any analyst indicate that the project will be successful without substantially more cooperation, and right now there are few signs that that cooperation is coming. It's possible that officials in some countries will change their minds once the operation begins. CNN and Debka

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Sep-14 World View -- Palestinians divided over taking Israel to International Criminal Court thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (13-Sep-2014) Permanent Link
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Israel to investigate its own possible war crimes in Gaza war

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Little visible support for American coalition to fight ISIS

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Sep-2014
13-Sep-14 World View -- Palestinians divided over taking Israel to International Criminal Court