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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Oct-2014
1-Oct-14 World View -- Russia's ruble currency drops to record low against the dollar

Web Log - October, 2014

1-Oct-14 World View -- Russia's ruble currency drops to record low against the dollar

Taiwan officials split on reaction to Hong Kong protests

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Russia's ruble currency drops to record low against the dollar
Taiwan officials split on reaction to Hong Kong protests
Polio cases surging in Pakistan to record-breaking levels

Russia's ruble currency drops to record low against the dollar

Russian 500 ruble note

Russian 500 ruble note

Apparently the European and American sanctions on Russia for the latters invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea are having some effect after all. The value of the ruble currency has fallen over 20% against the dollar this year. The ruble is now at the lowest point since it was restructured during Moscow's traumatic 1998 debt default.

This comes at a time when Russia's economy is suffering for other reasons, particularly the falling price of oil. Libya has massively increased production, and OPEC is producing more than forecast. Iraq, Nigeria, and Angola and Saudi Arabia have each boosted output. These increased supplies of oil have pushed the price of oil down to $97 per barrel on Tuesday, which reduces the price of all forms of energy, which is Russia's main export.

The fall in the ruble is causing Russia to consider adopting capital controls in order to stop the fall of the ruble. Possible capital controls could include taxes, tariffs, and legislation banning or regulating certain activities, such as owning foreign assets. Russia's Central Bank spent over $72 billion in the first three months of this year to prop up the ruble, as Russia's seizure of Crimea caused a huge currency selloff. Moscow Times and MarketWatch and Reuters

Taiwan officials split on reaction to Hong Kong protests

The size of the Hong Kong protests grew on Tuesday, although there was no violence by either the police or the protesters. Hong Kong's chief executive, Leung Chun-ying, "The central government will not rescind its decision." Both he and Beijing officials demanded that the protesters go home immediately, suggesting that their patience was ebbing. The biggest protests are expected on Wednesday and Thursday, since those are public holidays celebrating the 45th anniversary of Mao Zedong's Communist revolution.

Taiwanese officials are watching the events in Hong Kong closely for hints about how the Beijing government would treat Taiwan if its government came under direct control of China.

Taiwan's president Ma Ying-jou, of the Kuomingtang (KMT) political party, asked the mainland authorities and the demonstrators to show tolerance and self-restraint in handling the matter. Ma noted that as the mainland authorities have promised Hong Kong self-administration and a high degree of autonomy, the KMT believes that both Hong Kong and China stand to benefit if these promises are fulfilled.

The Kuomingtang (KMT) is the modern day incarnation of Chiang Kai-shek's original nationalist party that fought against Mao Zedong and lost, and fled to Hong Kong, then a British colony, and from there to Formosa (Taiwan) in 1949, at the conclusion of the civil war. The KMT position has always been that Taiwan is part of China, and that one day they'll be fully reunited.

Joseph Wu, the head of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), said that the Hong Kong and China governments should be more open and receptive to the voices of the people and the wisdom of its citizens, and that the government should reassess its position.

The people of Taiwan watched the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing with horror, and it led to the Wild Lily student rebellion in 1990. By 2000, the student rebellion had morphed into the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which, in contrast to the KMT, was committed to Taiwan's complete independence from China. DPP has moderated that opinion in the face of military threats from Beijing.

With regard to the Hong Kong demonstrations, both political parties said that the outcome of the demonstrations would affect Taiwan's relations with China. Depending on the response by Chinese authorities, the DPP did not rule out a "drastic" change in policy. USA Today / AP and China Post (Taipei)

Polio cases surging in Pakistan to record-breaking levels

Pakistan's health officials have confirmed another 10 polio cases on Monday. Pakistan is now only 15 cases short of breaking its own 14-year-old record of 199 polio cases in the year 2000. This is a major setback for a country that as recently as 2005 saw just 28 cases, and seemed on track for polio eradication.

Most of the polio cases are in Pakistan's tribal area and northwest provinces, where the Taliban has the greatest strength. Pakistan has been a particular problem because the Taliban have been murdering health care workers in Pakistan involved in polio providing vaccines, ever since the administration bragged in 2011 that a vaccination program in Pakistan was used as a cover to locate and capture Osama bin Laden. In a recent day-long national campaign, over 16,000 children could not be vaccinated due to their parents' resistance. Many parents refuse vaccinations due to fear of Taliban who say that the polio medicine is a conspiracy by the West to sterile Muslims. The Taliban have attacked and killed health workers who provide the vaccines, as well has parents who permit their children to be vaccinated.

Nigeria, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the three remaining countries where polio is endemic. The News (Islamabad) and IRIN (United Nations) and Business Standard (India)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Oct-14 World View -- Russia's ruble currency drops to record low against the dollar thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (1-Oct-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Oct-2014 1-Oct-14 World View -- Russia's ruble currency drops to record low against the dollar

Russia's ruble currency drops to record low against the dollar

Taiwan officials split on reaction to Hong Kong protests

Polio cases surging in Pakistan to record-breaking levels

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Oct-2014
1-Oct-14 World View -- Russia's ruble currency drops to record low against the dollar