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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Oct-2014
20-Oct-14 World View -- Vladimir Putin: Global economy will collapse with oil at $80 per barrel

Web Log - October, 2014

20-Oct-14 World View -- Vladimir Putin: Global economy will collapse with oil at $80 per barrel

China blames Hong Kong protests on 'external forces'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

China blames Hong Kong protests on 'external forces'
Vladimir Putin: Global economy will collapse with oil at $80 per barrel

China blames Hong Kong protests on 'external forces'

Hong Kong protesters raise their hands in a symbolic show of peace and non-violence on Sunday (EPA)

Hong Kong protesters raise their hands in a symbolic show of peace and non-violence on Sunday (EPA)

China's hand-picked Hong Kong leader, Leung Chun-ying, is saying that the pro-democracy protests are "out of control," and that they're being supported by "external forces," echoing Chinese state media that "anti-China forces" such as the United States are manipulating the protesters.

A week ago, the protesters and the government were going to have talks to determine a political solution, and the demonstrators, who had previously numbered in the tens of thousands, had dwindled down to only a few hundred. It looked like the demonstrations would fizzle out completely.

However, then the talks broke down, and Leung announced that there was zero probability that China would back down and allow free, open elections in 2017. This brought thousands of protesters back out -- not as many as before, but still a sizeable number. Although the three weeks of protests have been mostly peaceful, there have been clashes with police for the last four nights, Protesters accused the police of using "deadly" force, with some demonstrators suffering head wounds, fractures and bruising, and others carried away on stretchers.

On Sunday night, Leung blamed infiltration of the protest movement by forces outside of Hong Kong:

"I shan’t go into details, but this is not entirely a domestic movement.
The Hong Kong government and the police force have exercised extreme tolerance and patience. That’s what we have done and what we will continue to do."

But he also vowed to "restore law and order in Hong Kong as soon as possible."

However, protesters claim that the protests are "purely by citizens, purely by those who live in Hong Kong." According to a protest leader:

"To make a statement that there are foreign powers infiltrating this movement right before the discussions, is evidence that [Leung] is hoping to crack down on the entire movement.
As the chief executive of Hong Kong, he should probably have solid evidence before making such a statement. He can't just say there is foreign infiltration and this is really irresponsible."

Despite the protests, talks between the government and protesters are set to resume on Tuesday.

More broadly, China's government is increasingly cracking down on dissent throughout China, what it calls "subversive ideas." In a memo, the Communist Party warned of "seven perils" that were taking root in the country, including the following five:

"Western constitutional democracy";
"promoting universal values of human rights";
"Western-inspired notions of media independence and civil society";
"ardently pro-market neo-liberalism";
"nihilist" criticisms of the party's traumatic past.

Australian/AFP and BBC and Nation Multimedia

Vladimir Putin: Global economy will collapse with oil at $80 per barrel

In recent months, the price of a barrel of oil has fallen from about $110 down to $80-85. Global economies have been softening, reducing the demand for oil. And the supply of oil has been surging, with U.S. shale oil production ("fracking") and supplies from other countries growing.

Oil revenues have been a major source of foreign reserves for Russia, and the falling oil prices have affected Russia's economy. According to Russia's president Vladimir Putin:

"If oil prices remain at $80 per barrel, it will lead to production collapse. Budgets of all major oil-producing countries are based on the price of more than $80, close to $90 per barrel."

Russia is not the only economy suffering because of low oil prices. Many Mideast countries have hugely increased public spending after growing instability from the Arab spring. Venezuela and Iran similarly depend on high oil prices.

The U.S. economy is also affected. It's true that low oil prices translate into lower gas/petrol prices, but it's also true that much U.S. oil production becomes unprofitable as oil prices fall to $80.

This reality is affecting politics in 12 member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Smaller producers want Saudi Arabia to cut oil production, in order to force prices back up. But the Saudis are actually increasing oil production, because they want to try to put America's oil fracking production out of business. Ria Novosti (Moscow) and Guardian (London) and Forbes

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Oct-14 World View -- Vladimir Putin: Global economy will collapse with oil at $80 per barrel thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (20-Oct-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Oct-2014 20-Oct-14 World View -- Vladimir Putin: Global economy will collapse with oil at $80 per barrel

China blames Hong Kong protests on 'external forces'

Vladimir Putin: Global economy will collapse with oil at $80 per barrel

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Oct-2014
20-Oct-14 World View -- Vladimir Putin: Global economy will collapse with oil at $80 per barrel