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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Oct-2014
21-Oct-14 World View -- Tensions grow with China over Indonesia's Natuna Islands

Web Log - October, 2014

21-Oct-14 World View -- Tensions grow with China over Indonesia's Natuna Islands

Reversing policies, Turkey and U.S. escalate involvement in Kobani

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Tensions grow with China over Indonesia's Natuna Islands
Reversing policies, Turkey and U.S. escalate involvement in Kobani

Tensions grow with China over Indonesia's Natuna Islands

Senoa Island, in the Natuna island chain

Senoa Island, in the Natuna island chain

Indonesia has tried to stay out of the fight that China was having with Vietnam and the Philippines over the former's annexation of the latter's territories. Indonesia could do that because, even though China was claiming Indonesia's Natuna Islands in its annexation of the entire South China Sea, China's navy was too far away from Indonesia to be of concern.

There's little doubt that China would like to annex Indonesia's Natuna Islands, whose waters are rich with fish and which is adjacent to the East Natuna gas field, one of the world's largest untapped reserves.

China's increased belligerence, and the substantial growth of its naval and air power in the South China Sea, have caused Indonesia to speed its naval buildup, although so far it's still far more modest than the buildup in Vietnam and the Philippines, and it has improved its relations with Japan and the United States.

In fact, the last few years have seen an "amphibious forces creep," a growth in naval capabilities of several south Asian countries, including Burma (Myanmar), Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia. One major trigger for this buildup was the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which exposed these countries as woefully unequipped to engage in disaster relief operations. Although much of the naval buildup has been labeled as being for humanitarian reasons, the last few years have seen a buildup of offensive naval forces to counter China's belligerence. The Diplomat and Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) and Reuters (25-Aug)

Reversing policies, Turkey and U.S. escalate involvement in Kobani

Turkey's government on Monday may a surprise announcement that it will allow Kurdish peshmerga fighters from Iraq travel through Turkey to Kobani, Syria, to fight against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL).

Note: Peshmerga = Kurdish militias in Iraq. PYD = Kurdish militias in Syria. PKK = Kurdish anti-government insurgents in Turkey.

On Sunday evening, the White House announced that it was air-dropping weapons to the Kurdish militias fighting in Kobani:

"So as you know, this evening, our time, overnight in Syria, the United States military delivered weapons, ammunition and medical supplies to the forces fighting against ISIL on the ground in Kobani. These supplies were provided by Kurdish authorities in Iraq, and they were focused on enabling forces -- including, of course, Kurdish forces in Syria -- to continue their fight against ISIL."

The U.S. announcement appears to be an escalation, though the White House that it's within the scope of previous announcements.

However, Turkey's announcement is a clear reversal of policy, as the government has recently said that it would provide no help whatsoever to the PYD, equating them to the terrorist PKK.

The two announcements appear to be a face-saving way for both sides to provide aid to the Kurdish militants in Kobani. The U.S. isn't shipping American weapons to Kobani; it's shipping weapons obtained from the Iraqi peshmerga. Turkey isn't allowing Turkish Kurds into Kobani; it's allowing Iraqi Kurds into Kobani. Hurriyet (Ankara) and White House

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Oct-14 World View -- Tensions grow with China over Indonesia's Natuna Islands thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (21-Oct-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Oct-2014
21-Oct-14 World View -- Tensions grow with China over Indonesia's Natuna Islands