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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Oct-2014
23-Oct-14 World View -- Canada in shock over Ottawa shootings

Web Log - October, 2014

23-Oct-14 World View -- Canada in shock over Ottawa shootings

Turkey's military options in Syria are restricted by limited capability

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Canada in shock over Ottawa shootings
Egypt supports the anti-ISIS coalition in principle only
Turkey and Qatar officials meet to discuss Syria strategy
Turkey's military options in Syria are restricted by limited capability

Canada in shock over Ottawa shootings

A Twitter user took this photo moments before the shooting. He tweeted: 'Ok so we were on a tour at that war monument in Ottawa a few minutes ago, a few seconds later there was a shooting.' Is one of these guards the soldier who was killed? (@Evanem/Toronto Star)

A Twitter user took this photo moments before the shooting. He tweeted: 'Ok so we were on a tour at that war monument in Ottawa a few minutes ago, a few seconds later there was a shooting.' Is one of these guards the soldier who was killed? (@Evanem/Toronto Star)

A gunman shot and killed a soldier at a war memorial in Ottawa on Wednesday, then ran into the parliament building where he exchanged gunfire with police. At this writing on Wednesday evening ET, police are hunting for additional suspects. It's suspected, not confirmed, that it was a "lone wolf" attack inspired by the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL).

Canadians are known to have the feeling that this sort of thing happens elsewhere, not in Canada, so Canadians are in shock over these terrorist attacks. Much of Ottawa is still locked down, as are parliament buildings, military installations, and other potential targets all across the country. American military installations are also on high alert.

It was just a few hours earlier, on Tuesday, that Canada had raised its terror level in response to intelligence reports of "general chatter" from groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda.

And it was just two days earlier, on Monday, that a self-radicalized "lone wolf" Canadian man ran down two soldiers, killing one. It's believed that both the Monday and Wednesday perpetrators were Muslim converts. Both perpetrators had previously been identified by Canadian authorities as potential terrorists.

Last month, in mid-September, ISIS issued statements encouraging exactly this kind of lone wolf attack. One statement called for attacks against Egyptian security forces, who are "the guards of the Jews, the soldiers of [Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi], the new Pharaoh of Egypt":

"Rig the roads with explosives for them. Attack their bases. Raid their homes. Cut off their heads. Do not let them feel secure."

A similar statement called for lone wolf attacks on other countries, including Australia, France, Canada, the United States, and others:

"If you can kill a disbelieving American or European — especially the spiteful and filthy French — or an Australian, or a Canadian, or any other disbeliever from the disbelievers waging war, including the citizens of the countries that entered into a coalition against the Islamic State ... kill him in any manner or way however it may be."

Wednesday's attack is expected cause some level of panic among ordinary Canadians. According to one commentator, "Canada will be a different country on Thursday than it was on Wednesday." BBC and Globe and Mail (Toronto) and Willmiot (22-Sep) and Toronto Star

Egypt supports the anti-ISIS coalition in principle only

Egypt has politically expressed its complete commitment to the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), saying that "the symbolism of a united coalition is very important," but has declared that it will not dispatch military forces to participate in its operations, nor participate in air strikes.

There are several reasons:

Egypt opposes limiting the war to ISIS alone, and wants U.S. support for internal fight against the Muslim Brotherhood, and other terror organizations on its own soil.

Egypt also wants to support the struggle of Libyan authorities in Tobruk against terrorist forces in the country, which are also threatening the Egyptian border.

Unlike other Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, that want to topple the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, Egypt does not explicitly oppose al-Assad.

Many media op-ed articles in Egypt are strongly opposed to the anti-ISIS coalition. The main argument made in the articles is that the real goals of the war against ISIS are to weaken the Arab countries, so as to give Israel supremacy in the region, restore the Muslim Brotherhood rule in Egypt, and guarantee the supply of oil from the Middle East to the U.S. and its allies.

Egypt is angry that the U.S. expects it to take part in the international struggle against terrorism while, for over a year, it opposed Egypt's own struggle against the Muslim Brotherhood and denied it the financial and military aid that it had given it prior to the coup that ousted Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government. This included delaying the transfer of the Apache helicopters that Egypt needs for its domestic fight against terrorism. For this reason, Foreign Minister Shoukry said: "Egypt supports the coalition against terrorism... but it makes no sense for us to mobilize our resources to defeat ISIS while we are being denied these resources..."

Egypt is taking a neutral stance against the al-Assad regime, while Saudi Arabia says that the al-Assad regime is illegitimate and must be removed. Memri

Turkey and Qatar officials meet to discuss Syria strategy

In an article last month ( "3-Sep-14 World View -- Mideast realignment continues following the Gaza war"), I used a Generational Dynamics analysis to outline how the Mideast is realigning itself around a growing fault line separating Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus the United Arab Emirates (UAE) plus Bahrain versus the Palestinians plus Qatar plus Turkey, with vitriolicly anti-American Iran increasingly aligning itself with America and the West.

Although Turkey and the Arab countries on both sides are all nominally part of the anti-ISIS coalition, Turkey and Qatar have not been participating actively because they have completely different objectives from the other countries:

Qatar and Turkey are strong supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Saudi Arabia and UAE consider to be terrorists. In fact, Qatar and Turkey have each given sanctuary to Egyptian members of the Brotherhood after they were ousted from power last year.
Although all coalition members say that they support the "moderate" Free Syrian Army (FSA), Turkey and Qatar have also supported, al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), many of whose members have joined the ranks of ISIS.

Qatar and Turkey are currently engaging in intense talks on "Issues of security cooperation between the two countries and enhancing coordination between ministries." It's not known whether major changes in policy are being discussed. Hurriyet (Ankara)

Turkey's military options in Syria are restricted by limited capability

Even if it wanted to, it's doubtful that Turkey could mount an effective cross-border operation against ISIS forces around Kobani or anywhere else for that matter. The first problem is that the army is very top heavy, and has not carried out any significant restructuring or reforms for over 50 years.

Also, Turkey's army is tied down on other fronts:

The Turkish 1st Army has 28,000 personnel deployed in northern Cyprus, since the 1974 war with Greece.
The Turkish 2nd Army is strung out along the Syrian border but importantly also tied down by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in southeastern Turkey. Turkey has been fighting a PKK insurgency for three decades.
The Turkish 3rd Army, installed on Turkey's eastern border with Iran, Armenia and Georgia, also has to contend with the PKK as well.

So, it's highly likely that Turkey's support for the US-led coalition will remain rhetorical, especially if there is no agreement regarding Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's removal from power. Today's Zaman (Ankara)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Oct-14 World View -- Canada in shock over Ottawa shootings thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (23-Oct-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Oct-2014 23-Oct-14 World View -- Canada in shock over Ottawa shootings

Canada in shock over Ottawa shootings

Egypt supports the anti-ISIS coalition in principle only

Turkey and Qatar officials meet to discuss Syria strategy

Turkey's military options in Syria are restricted by limited capability

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Oct-2014
23-Oct-14 World View -- Canada in shock over Ottawa shootings