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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Nov-2014
1-Nov-14 World View -- Burkina Faso, critical U.S. ally, in government meltdown

Web Log - November, 2014

1-Nov-14 World View -- Burkina Faso, critical U.S. ally, in government meltdown

U.N. report says that jihadists are flooding into Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Burkina Faso, critical U.S. ally, in government meltdown
U.N. report says that jihadists are flooding into Syria

Burkina Faso, critical U.S. ally, in government meltdown

Burkina Faso is a strategically located U.S. ally

Burkina Faso is a strategically located U.S. ally

After several days of violent anti-government protests, including burning down the parliament and several government buildings in the capital city Ouagadougou, protesters are cheering euphorically following the announcement that president Blaise Compaoré finally agreed to step down after 27 years in power. Compaoré issued a statement:

"In order to preserve the democratic gains, as well as social peace, I declare a power vacuum to allow the establishment of a transition leading to free and fair elections within a maximum of 90 days. For my part, I think I have fulfilled my duty."

Compaoré's whereabouts are unknown. Since there's no clear-cut constitutional successor, army chief Gen. Honoré Nabéré Traoré announced that he would take power. There are suspicions that the army may have engineered the resignation so that the army could take power.

Burkina Faso is an important U.S. ally, hosting a U.S. base in Ouagadougou, operating since 2007, which serves as a hub for a U.S spying network in the region, with spy planes departing from the base to fly over Mali, Mauritania and the Sahara, tracking fighters from the al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).

What triggered the riots was the plan by Compaoré to amend Burkina Faso's constitution so that he could continue in power past the current term limit date of 2015. It's thought that Compaoré's ouster will serve as a warning to Africa's other military leaders who have stayed in power for decades, and who are also considering revising the constitution. These include Teodoro Obiang Nguema of Equatorial Guinea, José Eduardo dos Santos, president of Angola, Paul Biya, president of Cameroon, Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, and Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, all of whom have been power since the 1980s.

Note: If any reader is familiar with the history of Burkina Faso and can help me identify the major tribal wars (generational crisis wars) of the last century or two, I would appreciate the help.

ABC News and Washington Post and Nigerian Guardian News

U.N. report says that jihadists are flooding into Syria

According to a new United Nations report, foreign jihadists are flooding into Syria and Iraq to join jihadist terror groups at the rate of over 1,000 per month, which about 15,000 there already. They're arriving from over 80 countries around the world, and they're joining the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) and the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), as well as other al-Qaeda linked terrorist groups.

As I wrote a couple of weeks ago ( "19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame and Global Risk"), my view is that the Syria/Iraq conflicts have passed the point of no return, and that they will not be settled before they spiral into a larger regional war between Sunni and Shia Muslims. This is in contrast to other brief Mideast wars of the past few years, such as the recent Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza.

As I've been writing for two years, the reason that Sunni jihadists are flooding into Syria is that Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad has flattened entire Sunni villages with Russia's heavy weapons, he's killed children by sending missiles into exam rooms and bedrooms, he's killed dozens with sarin gas, and he's killed countless more with barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas. In addition, he's used electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation, and beating on tens of thousands of prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale, and does with complete impunity, and in fact with encouragement and support from Russia and Iran.

Also to blame is Russia's president Vladimir Putin, who has been supplying al-Assad with the heavy weapons he needs to continue his genocide of the Sunni civilians. This makes Putin a war criminal.

However, many analysts are blaming U.S. president Barack Obama for the rise of ISIS. According to these analysts, the Obama administration made three fundamental mistakes:

The withdrawal of all American troops from Iraq without leaving a smaller force behind, thus throwing away all the gains that Americans had fought for in the Iraq war.

The lack of a major effort to supply arms to Syria's moderate anti-Assad rebels, such as the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

The damage to U.S. credibility by setting a "red line" for al-Assad on the use of chemical weapons, and then humiliatingly backing down when al-Assad used sarin gas on his own people. Al-Assad continues to use chemical weapons to this day -- chlorine gas is packed into barrel bombs along with metals and explosives.

Guardian (London) and Reuters and The National (UAE)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Nov-14 World View -- Burkina Faso, critical U.S. ally, in government meltdown thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (1-Nov-2014) Permanent Link
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U.N. report says that jihadists are flooding into Syria

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1-Nov-14 World View -- Burkina Faso, critical U.S. ally, in government meltdown