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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Nov-2014
7-Nov-14 World View -- Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall

Web Log - November, 2014

7-Nov-14 World View -- Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall

France adopts new law to stop young people from going to Syria to be jihadists

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall
Russia loses influence in East Ukraine as economy weakens
France adopts new law to stop young people from going to Syria to be jihadists

Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall

Underground gas storage facility in Ukraine (Bloomberg)

Underground gas storage facility in Ukraine (Bloomberg)

Oil markets fell sharply again on Thursday, with U.S. crude falling to $78 per barrel, and North Sea Brent Crude falling to $83 per barrel. Oil prices have been falling because of a combination of increased supply and decreased demand. Oil demand is falling because of a potential European recession and slowing Chinese growth. World oil production has been growing, particularly in the United States where oil from fracking has been surging. Saudi Arabia has been cutting prices and increasing production, apparently with the intention of trying to make U.S. oil production unprofitable, but in doing so they're pushing oil prices down further. Some analysts are predicting that it will reach $70 per barrel.

This is good news for people will cars, but it's bad news for Russia's government, which depends on oil income. Russia has budgeted for oil to be priced at $114 per barrel or more, an assumption that seemed fairly reasonably only a few months ago.

The value of the Russian ruble has also been plummeting, and fell 3.6% on Thursday, the biggest drop in six years. The fall in the ruble is mostly due to the fall in oil prices, but also due to the sanctions imposed by the West for Russia's invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea. Reuters and Bloomberg and Citibank

Russia loses influence in East Ukraine as economy weakens

The election last week by the East Ukraine Russians of leaders of the self-designated Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, is just one sign that Russia's president Vladimir Putin is losing influence in East Ukraine. Because of its own economic problems, Russia is unable to provide much financial aid to Donetsk and Lugansk, where the economic situation is critical.

Schoolteachers and other government officials have not been paid since July, when Ukraine's government in Kiev cut off funding. State-owned companies in Donetsk and Lugansk have no idea how they're going to survive. In many villages there's no power, little water, and few medications. The real test will come in winter.

Even worse, disputes between leaders in Donetsk and Lugansk are growing, the citizen militias are disintegrating. Today, there's no real leader with whom anyone -- Moscow, Kiev, Nato -- can negotiate. Der Spiegel

France adopts new law to stop young people from going to Syria to be jihadists

More than 1,000 young people from France have joined jihadist groups in Syria and Iraq, more than from any other country. Entire families have joined jihadist movements, including about 100 young French women. Even upper class families are shocked when their children suddenly disappear and are later discovered in Syria, the boys to be used as cannon fodder and the girls to marry the jihadists.

France on Tuesday adopted an anti-terrorism law that will impose a travel ban on anyone suspected of planning to wage jihad. It also brings in punishment for “lone wolves” who plan terrorist attacks on their own, and allows authorities to block entry to any EU citizen or their relatives if their presence in France constitutes a threat. Al Arabiya and Der Spiegel

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Nov-14 World View -- Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (7-Nov-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Nov-2014 7-Nov-14 World View -- Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall

Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall

Russia loses influence in East Ukraine as economy weakens

France adopts new law to stop young people from going to Syria to be jihadists

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Nov-2014
7-Nov-14 World View -- Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall