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 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Nov-2014
18-Nov-14 World View -- More Pakistan jihadist groups swear allegiance to ISIS

Web Log - November, 2014

18-Nov-14 World View -- More Pakistan jihadist groups swear allegiance to ISIS

Japan in shock as economy plunges into recession

This morning's key headlines from

Germany's friendly relations with Russia turn hostile

Putin wags his finger at Merkel at the 70th anniversary of D-Day commemoration in June (Reuters)
Putin wags his finger at Merkel at the 70th anniversary of D-Day commemoration in June (Reuters)

Russia's president Vladimir Putin has long had a soft spot for Germany, even developing a love for the German language when he was stationed in the East German city of Dresden as an office of the KGB in the late 1980s.

For her part, Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has always promoted good relations with Russia, and for solving problems with dialogue. The business lobby in Germany is both more powerful and more sympathetic toward Russia than any major European state, and the German electorate has generally favored a neutral stance on foreign policy.

But that's changed dramatically in the last few months. Thanks to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, annexation of Crimea, and the Russians' shooting down of airline flight MH17, Putin's reputation among the German public has been plummeting. In a nationwide survey conducted in August, a German pollster reportedly found that 82% of Germans do not believe that Russia can be trusted, while 70% called for tougher sanctions against the Russian economy.

Over the weekend, Merkel said, "Truly, the Ukraine crisis is in no way a regional issue. It affects all of us." She said that she was particularly concerned that Russia would not stop with the invasion of Ukraine, but would go to the Balkans.

She warned that the EU will not yield to Moscow like East Germany once did:

"Otherwise, one would have to say: We are too weak, be careful, we can't accept any others, we have to first ask Moscow if it is possible. That's how things were for 40 years; I never really wanted to return to that situation.

And that doesn't just apply to Ukraine. It applies to Moldova, it applies to Georgia. If the situation continues ... we'd have to ask about Serbia, we'd have to ask about the western Balkan countries. ...

After the horrors of two world wars and the end of the Cold War, [the Ukraine crisis] has challenged the peaceful order in Europe."

With the loss of Merkel as an ally, Russia is now almost completely estranged from Europe and the West, and further confrontations are sure to follow. Der Spiegel and Time and Europe Online

More Pakistan jihadist groups swear allegiance to ISIS

The black ISIS flag is beginning to appear all across Pakistan, from the south of Punjab province north to Islamabad, and in Balochistan and in the Afghan-Pakistan tribal region. At least 330 Pakistani terrorists are already known to be fighting alongside ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

ISIS has been recruiting heavily in Pakistan and Afghanistan, anticipating a gain of territory as American military forces withdraw. After meeting a three-man delegation from ISIS, the Jundullah terrorist group pledged allegiance to ISIS last week. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi is also considering allegiance. What these two groups have in common is that they're committed to exterminating Shia Muslims wherever possible, and have committed numerous bombings of mosques and marketplaces in Balochistan and Iran to accomplish this. Analysts say that so far IS has mainly attracted sectarian (anti-Shia) groups rather than anti-state militants like the Taliban.

In response, al-Qaeda has announced a new umbrella organization, Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) that has made deep inroads into Pakistan. On September 3, 2014, al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, in a 55-minute video posted on the Internet, announced the launch of AQIS to spread Islamic rule and "raise the flag of jihad" across the Indian subcontinent, including Pakistan. South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and Reuters

Japan in shock as economy plunges into recession

Economists were expecting Japan's economy to grow by 2% in the third (most current) quarter, after having plunged a historic 7.6% in the second quarter. Instead, the GDP fell an additional 1.6% in the third quarter. And since the GDP has now fallen for two months in a row, Japan's economy is officially in a recession. The fall into recession is being blamed on a sales tax increase from 5% to 8% in April, which caused consumers to stop spending.

Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe will put any further planned tax increases on hold, and will dissolve the Lower House and hold a "snap election" in December.

Japan's economy has been in a deflationary spiral since the early 1990s, following a huge real estate and stock market bubble in the 1980s, and a huge crash that began in January, 1990. In the spring of 2013, Shinzo Abe launched something called "Abenomics," involving a huge quantitative easing program. Japan's central bank "printed" hundreds of billions of dollars and used it to buy bonds. This is similar to America's recent quantitative easing program which, at its peak, put $85 billion per month into the banking system.

The objective of Abenomics was to end deflation once and for all. But instead of stimulating spending, all the money just poured into the stock market, benefiting only a minority of rich people. The vast majority of Japanese people have incomes that are stagnant or falling.

This has also been a criticism of America's quantitative easing program. In the U.S., the median income has been falling, but the stock market has been pushed up into bubble levels, with the S&P Price/Earnings ratio (stock valuations) close to 19, an astronomically high level, much higher than the historical average of 14. Asahi Shimbun (Tokyo) and BBC

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Nov-14 World View -- More Pakistan jihadist groups swear allegiance to ISIS thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (18-Nov-2014) Permanent Link
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