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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Nov-2014
20-Nov-14 World View -- Jerusalem becomes a city of fear, in a torrent of mutual hostility

Web Log - November, 2014

20-Nov-14 World View -- Jerusalem becomes a city of fear, in a torrent of mutual hostility

Israel approves construction of 78 new homes in Jerusalem

This morning's key headlines from

Global warming and climate change strike Buffalo NY

Buffalo man digs out his car on Wednesday
Buffalo man digs out his car on Wednesday

Israel demolishes apartment of terrorist

On Wednesday, Israeli forces demolished the home of Abdelrahman Shaludi, who had purposely plowed his car into pedestrians on October 22, killing two people. This was done following a policy revived by Benjamin Netanyahu of demolishing the homes of terrorists as a method of deterrence. Netanyahu has promised to do the same to the homes of the two perpetrators of Tuesday's synagogue attack. However, Palestinians claim that the policy is a violation of international law because it uses "collective punishment" of many people for the crimes of one person.

The Israelis point out that they didn't demolish the entire apartment building in which Shaludi lived, but only demolished Shaludi's individual apartment.

A reporter on al-Jazeera on Wednesday described the history of using home demolishing as deterrence. According to the reporter, the policy was used during British rule of Palestine prior to World War II in order to inhibit Jewish insurgents. Israel began using the home demolition policy starting in 1967, and it was continued until 2005, when it was ended because it was considered ineffective. However, Netanyahu reinstated the policy earlier this year after the three teenagers were abducted and killed in the West Bank. Israel National News

Jerusalem becomes a city of fear, in a torrent of mutual hostility

Following Tuesday's terrorist attack on a synagogue in Jerusalem, both Israelis and Palestinians are afraid to walk the streets. Israelis are afraid that any passing car driven by a Palestinian might change direction and kill pedestrians. Palestinians are afraid of revenge attacks from Israeli settlers.

Several analysts have pointed out that the conflict between Arabs and Israelis has shifted. It used to be a political conflict over land, but now it's become a conflict over religion, and a religious war is much more dangerous than a political war.

Former Senator George Mitchell, who was President Obama's "Special Envoy for the Mideast," said the following on the BBC on Wednesday (my transcription):

"I think one thing that the parties should consider is the potential that this could spread and branch out in ways that were unlikely in the past. There have been two Palestinian uprisings. at that time, there was a relatively stable and quiet region around the Israeli Palestinian conflict. That no longer exists. Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya -- you go down the list of turmoil and conflict, intersecting, overlapping different routes, different branches, so many competing organizations that the average person has trouble keeping track of them, and an outbreak of violence this time could spread in ways that was not possible in the past, and we may not fully comprehend yet."

This is exactly the kind of point that Generational Dynamics makes. As I've been saying since 2003, Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a new war between Arabs and Israelis, refighting the 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that following the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The mechanism that all these crisis wars follow is that a crisis war is so horrible that the traumatized survivors -- both "winners" and "losers" -- vow to make sure that the same thing never happens again, to their children or grandchildren. And they succeed, until they all disappear (retire or die), all at once, leaving behind generations of children and grandchildren who have no personal memory of those horrors, and willing to cross any line, even if it risks another crisis war, which happens sooner or later. Pretty much the only important survivor of the 1948 war still left is Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, who is undoubtedly well aware of what's coming, but can't do anything to stop it.

Mitchell continued:

"And there is a further fact. Of all the difficult issues between Palestinians and Israelis, none is more difficult or important than Jerusalem. In part because Jerusalem is not just a Palestinian issue. Jerusalem is Muslim issue. Today of the 7 1/2 billion people in the world, 1 in 5 is Muslim, about a billion and a half. In the middle of this century, when the world's population gets past 9 1/2 billion, 1 in 3 will be Muslim. They all have an interest in Jerusalem, and it's in everyone's interest not to let this get out of control and dominate the issue. So the dangers are greater. The potential losses on all sides are greater. And to me the incentives of doing something about it should be greater. Will that be persuasive to the participants, I can't say that with certainty, but I believe that's the case we should be making to them."

Mitchell is making a fundamental error here. He was born in 1933, so he remembers well the horrors of World War II, and would do anything to keep them from happening again. But he assumes that because he doesn't want war, then nobody wants war. However, that's patently untrue, as history is replete with leaders who wanted war, thinking that they would win easily, and living to regret it. In fact, there are plenty of people in the Mideast, including both Palestinians and Israelis, who are itching for a war.

I've been writing for years that Sunni jihadists are doing everything possible to trigger a war. These groups, affiliated with al-Qaeda and lately the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), see one shining event that's guiding their lives -- the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution that turned Iran from a secular state into a Shia Islamic state. Al-Qaeda and ISIS would like to repeat that "success," and they've tried to trigger a war in numerous countries, and are still trying in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

There are plenty of young radical Israelis and Palestinians who would like to trigger a war because they hate each other and because each side thinks they would win. That day is coming, and there will be no winners. Reuters

Israel approves construction of 78 new homes in Jerusalem

Jerusalemís municipal planning committee approved the construction of 78 settlements on Wednesday, provoking further fury among the Palestinians. Jerusalem Post

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Nov-14 World View -- Jerusalem becomes a city of fear, in a torrent of mutual hostility thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (20-Nov-2014) Permanent Link
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