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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Dec-2014
18-Dec-14 World View -- Cuba's shift is similar to E. Germany, Hungary, Poland, others

Web Log - December, 2014

18-Dec-14 World View -- Cuba's shift is similar to E. Germany, Hungary, Poland, others

US officials say that North Korea is responsible for Sony hack

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

US officials say that North Korea is responsible for Sony hack
Cuba's shift is similar to E. Germany, Hungary, Poland, others

US officials say that North Korea is responsible for Sony hack

Screen shot from the Sony Pictures movie 'Annie', which hackers stole and made available on the internet

Screen shot from the Sony Pictures movie 'Annie', which hackers stole and made available on the internet

As I wrote two weeks ago, Sony Pictures suffered a serious hacker attack that's so widespread and destructive that Sony Pictures may not survive. ( "6-Dec-14 World View -- Sony suffers catastrophic breach, possibly from North Korean hackers")

US officials are now saying on background that US intelligence and the FBI have pulled out all the stops to track down the hackers, and they've pieced together the evidence that North Korea ordered the attack, although the individual or group behind the attack were not in North Korea. Analysts have been speculating what the U.S. can do in retaliation.

However, I haven't yet heard mentioned by these analysts what is possibly a more significant point. Sony Pictures may be an American corporation, but it's a subsidiary of a Japanese corporation, Sony Inc. It will not be missed by the people of Japan that North Korea has launched a major attack on a Japanese company, and their retaliation may be a lot more serious. ABC News and AP

Cuba's shift is similar to E. Germany, Hungary, Poland, others

On Wednesday, US president Barack Obama and Cuba's president Raul Castro simultaneously announced the restoration of diplomatic relations, for the first time since the Cuban Revolution of 1960 and the Bay of Pigs invasion of 1961. Although politicians are crowing about this and taking credit, it has nothing to do with politicians, but with generational changes in Cuba itself.

This wasn't even the most important change in Cuba. The major change occurred in 2010, when Cuba announced the end of its Communist economy. (See "16-Sep-10 News -- Cuba's seismic shift has global implications") Wednesday's restoration of relations was just the next step in a process that Cuba is still undergoing.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the 2010 announcement was an "Awakening climax," which means that a generational conflict has been settled. The announcement occurred 50 years after the end of Cuba's last generational crisis war, the Cuban Revolution.

All countries follow a similar pattern following the end of a generational crisis war:

When the war ends, the country enters a 15-year Recovery Era. The traumatized survivors of the war vow to make sure that no such horrors should ever be inflicted on their children and grandchildren, so they impose harsh rules and develop austere institutions designed to prevent it from happening again.

After 15 years, the kids who grew up after the war begin to make themselves heard, and this is an Awakening era (like America in the 1960s-70s). They rebel against the harsh rules and institutions imposed by their parents, creating a "generation gap," a harsh political struggle between the crisis war survivors versus the kids who grew up after the crisis war.

After 20 more years, the country enters an Unraveling Era (like America in the 1980s-90s). The harsh rules and austere institutions unravel.

Sometime during the Awakening and Unraveling eras, usually 40-50 years after the end of the last crisis war, there's an Awakening climax that settles the generational conflict in favor of either the older or younger generation. Usually the younger generation wins since, after all, the older generation dies off. But if the older generation wins, it means that a highly repressive regime is in charge, and that there'll be a civil war two or three decades later when the next generational crisis war begins.

For many countries (not Cuba), the last crisis war was World War II, which ended in 1945. Here are some examples of Awakening climaxes following WW II:

Germany - 1991=1945+46 -- the reunification of Germany.

Poland - 1989=1945+44 -- the fall of the Communist government, following Lech Walesa's Solidarity movement.

Hungary 1989=1945+44 -- the fall of the Communist government. Note that the 1956 Hungarian revolution failed, as Hungary was in a generational Recovery era.

South Africa - 1990=1945+45 -- the end of apartheid.

South Korea - 1987=1945+42 -- Following the 1980 Kwangu Massacre, the young "Kwangju generation" defeated the older "April 19" generation, through a bloodless coup in 1987.

Here are some additional examples of Awakening climaxes that illustrate different possibilities:

United States - 1974=1945+29. America's Awakening climax, the resignation of Richard Nixon, came only 29 years after the end of WW II. Additional research is needed, but I believe that this early Awakening climax is possible because of America's exceptionally free political system. The theory is that the more repressive the regime, the later the Awakening climax.

China - 1989=1949+40. China's Communist Revolution ended in 1949. The Awakening climax 40 years later was the Tiananmen Square massacre that occurred in 1989, which was a clear victory of the older generation over the younger generation.

Weimar Germany - 1918=1871+47 -- Weimar Germany fell at the end of World War I, 47 years after the end of the previous crisis war, the German unification wars.

Burma (Myanmar) - 2010=1958+52: Burma's ethnic civil war ended in 1958. In 2010, junta leaders freed Aung San Suu Kyi after being imprisoned for 21 years, signaling a general political opening.

Really, none of this should be surprising. Fidel Castro ruled for decades by demanding that the Cuban people suffer because of the evil United States. Now Fidel and his brother Raul are in their 80s, and they're simply too old and tired to continue to drive the anti-US fervor, especially because the younger Cubans couldn't care less about the Revolution. And so, Raul agreed to renewing diplomatic relations with the US.

In many ways, Iran is similar to Cuba. Iran's last generational crisis war was the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, followed by the Iran/Iraq war that ended in 1988. Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has been trying to maintain revolutionary fervor by citing threats from the evil United States, just like Cuba. If Iran follows the usual pattern for an Awakening climax, then the hardline Iranian regime will collapse 40-50 years later, or within 2008-2018, which would be within the next four years. [Correction: Sorry, but apparently I can't add. This computation is all wrong. 1988+40 = 2028, not 2008. So the time range should be 2028-2038.](Paragraph modified. 18-Dec)

Havana Times and Miami Herald/AP

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Dec-14 World View -- Cuba's shift is similar to E. Germany, Hungary, Poland, others thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (18-Dec-2014) Permanent Link
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US officials say that North Korea is responsible for Sony hack

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Dec-2014
18-Dec-14 World View -- Cuba's shift is similar to E. Germany, Hungary, Poland, others