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 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-Mar-2015
31-Mar-15 World View -- President Obama to update George Bush's 'Roadmap to Mideast Peace'

Web Log - March, 2015

31-Mar-15 World View -- President Obama to update George Bush's 'Roadmap to Mideast Peace'

Desperate John Kerry looks for a nuclear deal with Iran on Tuesday

This morning's key headlines from

Desperate John Kerry looks for a nuclear deal with Iran on Tuesday

Western negotiating team in Lausanne
Western negotiating team in Lausanne

As an American, it's embarrassing to see Secretary of State so desperate to get a nuclear deal with Iran that he's willing to concede anything. The deadline is today (Tuesday) at midnight Switzerland time. It's thought that Kerry doesn't want the negotiations to past midnight, because then it would be called an "April Fool's Nuclear Deal."

Many people believe that Kerry's lack of restraint is his desire to win a Nobel Peace Prize. That may in fact be his motive, but to be fair, there's another reason: It there's no agreement with Iran, then the status quo remains: the sanctions continue while Iran continues to develop a nuclear weapons. What's not clear to me is why this is better than having a deal where the sanctions come off, and Iran continues to develop a nuclear weapon anyway.

According to an analysis by Memri, Iran has not backed down in any way from its positions at the start of the talks. As I reported yesterday, Iran has reversed a previous agreement to ship their stockpile of enriched uranium to Russia. Now they intend to keep it, so that it can be refined and developed into a nuclear weapon.

Memri lists the following Iranian positions that remain unchanged:

So it looks like Iran is going to get a nuclear weapon either way.

This is a good time to remind readers that we've been predicting for years, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, that Iran was going to get a nuclear weapon, because Iran's public is demanding it for defense. They've already been a victim of Saddam Hussein's WMDs, and the public believes that with Pakistan, Russia and Israel having nuclear weapons, they must have one too.

Still, with President Obama's and John Kerry's foreign policy record of an unbroken string of catastrophes, it cannot do the United States any good to see a servile John Kerry begging for a deal, just to see him later beg for a reward from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Iran's Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei is demanding that all Western sanctions be removed completely immediately, or there will be no deal. In February, Khamenei made a statement affirming this, but also accused the West of duplicity:

"A scenario of agreement on general principles, and shortly thereafter agreement on the details, is not recommended, because our experience with the opposite side's conduct [in the negotiations shows] that a framework agreement will serve [them] as a tool for inventing a series of excuses in [the negotiations on] the details. If an agreement is to be reached, it must be a single-stage agreement, and it must include the general framework as well as the details. The agreement's content must be clear, and not open to interpretation. The agreement's sections must not be such that the opposing side, which is used to bargaining, will search for excuses on the various issues. The sanctions must be completely removed."

This paragraph may be alluding to a 2013 interim agreement between Iran and the west. The full text of that agreement was never published. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that under the agreement Iran had no right to enrich uranium, while Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif gloated that Iran had preserved its right to enrich uranium. The White House published a "summary," but Iran completely rejected the White House summary as "not true." Then, in January 2014, Iran disclosed that there was a secret side agreement to the nuclear agreement. The White House first confirmed this, saying that the side agreement would be made public, and then denied that there was a secret side agreement

So Khamenei is demanding that any new agreement be published in full, that there be no side agreements, that there be no ambiguities, and that sanctions be removed completely, immediately.

So here are two questions: Is Khamenei so resolute that he won't compromise on any principle? Is Kerry so servile that he'll compromise on every principle? Perhaps we'll have an answer by April Fool's Day. Memri and VOA and AEI Iran Tracker

President Obama to update George Bush's 'Roadmap to Mideast Peace'

The Washington Post is saying that President Obama plans to create a new Israeli-Palestinian peace proposal, and to impose it on Israel and the Palestinians by mandating it through the UN Security Council. The "new" proposal would be an update of UN Resolution 242, whose latest incarnation is President George Bush's May 2003 "Roadmap to Mideast Peace," which the Obama administration has been trying and failing to impose on Israel and the Palestinians through negotiations.

Obama has already laid the groundwork by means of his vitriolic criticisms of Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Although the details of the "new" proposal are not publicly known, it's expected that it will try to impose a Palestinian state based on the pre-1967 borders with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Most likely it would declare that Jerusalem would be the capital of both nations.

The plan would be silent on the means for protecting Israel from terrorist attacks from the West Bank and Gaza. The plan would also be silent on the question of Palestinian refugees and the "right to return," except to say that those details would be agreed on later. In other words, the "peace plan" would meet the Palestinians' demands, but would not even address Israel's concerns.

As in the case of the Iran nuclear negotiations, all I can do is shake my head at how laughably ridiculous this is. When George Bush proposed something similar, I wrote in May 2003 in "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?" that it would never work, because Generational Dynamics predicts that Arabs and Jews would be refighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.

So President Obama, the smartest guy in every room, is about to launch into his next foreign policy catastrophe by regurgitating George Bush's old Roadmap to Mideast Peace plan with a new title and a shiny new cover. But this time it will not be a "proposal," but a "mandate," which will make no difference whatsoever, except that it will probably infuriate everyone, and may even start another war. Washington Post

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-Mar-15 World View -- President Obama to update George Bush's 'Roadmap to Mideast Peace' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (31-Mar-2015) Permanent Link
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