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 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Jun-2015
20-Jun-15 World View -- The Gathering Storm: The accelerating surge in refugees, slaves and terrorists

Web Log - June, 2015

20-Jun-15 World View -- The Gathering Storm: The accelerating surge in refugees, slaves and terrorists

Human slavery at the highest level in human history

This morning's key headlines from

The Gathering Storm

Accelerating growth in refugees and displaced persons (UNHCR)
Accelerating growth in refugees and displaced persons (UNHCR)

When Winston Churchill wrote his monumental six-volume history of World War II, he titled the first volume The Gathering Storm, he described the signs that a world war was approaching. He particularly focused on the Nazis in Germany, and their massive increase in military power, particularly in air power, which Churchill foresaw would put Britain at existential risk.

I've written many articles about China's massive growth in military power, particularly in ballistic and hypersonic missiles, whose only purpose is to destroy American cities, military bases, and aircraft carriers. China is preparing to launch a war against the United States today, just as Hitler was preparing to attack Britain, and that's part of the Gathering Storm today.

But there's another aspect to the gathering storm -- the sudden accelerating world growth in refugees, slaves and terrorists. This is a major trend that's destabilizing the world, and brings us closer to the beginning of the Clash of Civilizations world war.

The sudden accelerating growth in refugees and displaced persons

As the above graph shows, the number of people forced to flee their homes was fairly steady throughout the 2000s, but since 2010, and especially since the Arab Awakening in the Mideast, the number has rapidly accelerated, growing exponentially. From 2000-2010, the number was around 40 million. But then the number started rapidly accelerating, reaching 60 million in 2014.

This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who's been watching the news for the last year, as there's one refugee crisis after another, whether in Europe, in southeast Asia or the southern border of the United States.

The sources of these refugees and displaced persons are mainly the wars in Syria, Iraq, Sudan and Afghanistan.

A small percentage are Christian, such as those from Central America or Central African Republic, but most are Muslim, whether it's Muslims killing Muslims in the Mideast or Africa, or Buddhists killing Muslims in Myanmar (Burma).

I've mentioned this several times in the past, because it's quite remarkable. Most people focus on Muslim militias or jihadists killing people, but I believe that the most important fact is that Muslims are seemingly under attack around the world, usually by other Muslims. And this has led to millions more Muslim refugees around the world as well.

According to the UNHCR report, at least 15 conflicts have erupted or reignited in the past five years: eight in Africa (Côte d'Ivoire, Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, northeastern Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan and this year in Burundi); three in the Middle East (Syria, Iraq, and Yemen); one in Europe (Ukraine) and three in Asia (Kyrgyzstan, and in several areas of Myanmar and Pakistan).

According to UN High Commissioner for Refugees António Guterres:

"We are witnessing a paradigm change, an unchecked slide into an era in which the scale of global forced displacement as well as the response required is now clearly dwarfing anything seen before.

It is terrifying that on the one hand there is more and more impunity for those starting conflicts, and on the other there is seeming utter inability of the international community to work together to stop wars and build and preserve peace."

There's an irony to this. After World War II, the United Nations, along with the United States as Policeman of the World, was set up to try to "stop wars and preserve peace."

But today, the "utter inability of the international community" is caused on the one hand because two of the worst criminal nations -- China for annexing other countries' territories in the South China Sea, and Russia for invading and annexing parts of Ukraine, and also supplying weapons for Bashar al-Assad's genocide in Syria -- are on the UN Security Council, with veto power that prevents the UN from even attempting to stop conflicts. Working together and supporting each other, the criminal nations Russia and China have crippled the United Nations and made it a laughingstock.

As for the United States, Barack Obama is the first president to repudiate President Harry Truman's 1947 Truman Doctrine, which did much to preserve peace for decades, with the most damaging example being the flip-flop about the "red line" of al-Assad's use of chemical weapons.

In his book, "The Gathering Storm," Churchill tells his response to Hitler's occupation of Austria in March 1938:

"Europe is confronted with a programme of aggression, nicely calculated and timed, unfolding stage by stage, and there is only one choice open... either to submit, like Austria, or else to take effective measures while time remains to ward off danger. ...

If a number of States were assembled around Great Britain and France in solemn treaty for mutual defense against aggression; ...and if it were done in the year 1938... then I say that you might even now arrest this approaching war."

This is exactly what's happening today in Ukraine, the South China Sea and the Mideast. There's a Gathering Storm today, just as there was in 1938, and the result is going to be catastrophic. UNHCR and CS Monitor and National Churchill Museum

Human slavery at the highest level in human history

Countries with the highest numbers of slaves, by percentage of population (Washington Post)
Countries with the highest numbers of slaves, by percentage of population (Washington Post)

There's been a lot of nonsense written this week following the Charleston SC terrorist killing, as if the United States invented slavery. Slavery has existed since the start of the human race, and it still exists today. It's estimated that there are 30-40 million slaves in the world today, the highest number in history.

According to Free the Slaves, the African country Mauritania has the highest percentage of slavery in its population: 4%. India has the largest number of people in slavery: 14 million.

There's also slavery in the United States: it's estimated that there are 60,000 slaves in the US today. Would you like to own a slave? Well, you could travel to Mauritania and buy one there, as some people have done.

The most common forms of slavery are:

Other terms that describe slavery are: debt bondage, bonded labor, attached labor, restavec (a child in Haiti sent by her parents to work for someone else), forced labor, indentured servitude and human trafficking.

Today, the world has the highest number of refugees in history, and the highest number of slaves in history. I haven't seen any figures that relate these, there have been a number of news stories that describe the connection.

These stories describe how Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) have been enslaving many of the people they capture in Syria and Iraq, such as the sexual slavery of Yazidi girls and women. Also, refugees fleeing from countries like Syria or Eritrea or Myanmar often promise to pay money to human traffickers to take them to other places, such as Indonesia, Australia or Europe. At some point during the journey, the traffickers may demand that the refugee call home to ask his family for money, and if that's not possible, then the refugee is sold into slavery.

Although slavery is illegal in every country in the world, slave owners, whether in the US or elsewhere, have very effective techniques for keeping control of their slaves, usually by telling them that their families will be killed if they cause trouble. Slaves in America are often forced to work as prostitutes or as migrant laborers.

India, with 14 million slaves, suffers from all forms of slavery. Although the caste system has become illegal, there are still many children who are born into slavery. Girls from underprivileged classes are particularly vulnerable to sexual slavery, sometimes under the guise of "child marriages." Washington Post and Free The Slaves and Walk Free

State Dept: Dramatic rise in terrorism from 2013 to 2014

According to a new report by the State Dept., the number of terrorist attacks increased 35% from 2013 to 2014, and the number of people killed by terrorist grew 81%.

More than 60 percent of all attacks took place in five countries: Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, and Nigeria. And 78% of all fatalities due to terrorist attacks also took place in five countries: Iraq, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Syria.

According to the report, the world's biggest national sponsor of terrorism is Iran. Iran has continued support for radical Palestinian groups in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and various groups in Iraq, including a Shiite militia designated as a terrorist group. According to the report, "In 2014, Iran continued to provide arms, financing, training, and the facilitation of primarily Iraqi Shia and Afghan fighters to support the Assad regime’s brutal crackdown that has resulted in the deaths of at least 191,000 people in Syria."

The report also singled out Boko Haram in northern Nigeria, with "a penchant for the use of brutal tactics, which included stonings, indiscriminate mass casualty attacks, and kidnapping children for enslavement."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the world is going deeper and deeper into a generational Crisis era, and headed for a Clash of Civilizations world war. And as I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni Arab countries will be enemies of the West, including the U.S., India, Russia and Iran.

In this article, we've described three major trends -- the accelerating growth in the number of refugees, and the historically high numbers of slaves and terrorist acts -- that are contributing to the Gathering Storm that will lead to this war. We can't predict when it will start (or maybe, with the entire Mideast already in flames, it's started already), but we can be certain that it's coming. Washington Post and US State Dept.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Jun-15 World View -- The Gathering Storm: The accelerating surge in refugees, slaves and terrorists thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (20-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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