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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Jul-2015
15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal

Web Log - July, 2015

15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal

Generational Dynamics view of Iran nuclear deal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Arab views of Iran nuclear deal
Another Arab view of Iran's nuclear deal
Generational Dynamics view of Iran nuclear deal
Congratulations to my readers for sticking with all this

Arab views of Iran nuclear deal

Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a vocal critic of the Iran nuclear deal (Politico)

Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a vocal critic of the Iran nuclear deal (Politico)

Media from Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries were completely silent on Tuesday, following the announcement of the Iran nuclear deal. According to one Israeli analyst: "There’s an [Arab] sense of disappointment mixed with shock. These countries, and especially Saudi Arabia, are trying to come to terms with the materialization of their worst fears."

There was a brief statement from the Saudi Press Agency:

"The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has always believed in the importance of reaching a deal regarding Iran's nuclear program that ensures preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and at the same time includes a specific, strict and permanent mechanism for inspecting all sites - including military ones - along with a mechanism for rapidly and effectively re-imposing sanctions in case Iran violates the deal, an official source said in a statement following the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 group. ...
Under the nuclear deal, Iran has to use its resources in serving its internal development and improving the conditions of the Iranian people, rather than using these resources in destabilizing the region which is an act that will be strictly faced by the region's countries."

The statement emphasizes two major areas of Arab concern: That Iran may develop a nuclear weapon for use on the Arabs, and that Iran will use the money from lifting sanctions to further destabilize the region.

Frank Gardner, the BBC security correspondent, listed three major area of concerns for Arabs:

The fear that Iran will obtain nuclear weapons and use them, not on Israel, but on Arab countries.

The major fear: That the unfrozen billions of dollars will be used for malevolent purposes in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, and for fomenting trouble in Bahrain and eastern Saudi Arabia.

Iran will replace Saudi Arabia as America's big strategic partner in the middle east, in the long term.

The Saudis recall that under the Shah of Iran, prior to the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, Iran was the big US ally in the Middle East. After 1979, the Saudis became the big ally, and now Iran is returning to its prior role.

According to Gardner: "What I fear is that Sunni hardliners will say, right, OK, we need to now support Sunni extremists in the Middle East, as a bulwark against Shia extremists and Shia militias, which will extend and prolong the wars and conflicts in Iraq and Syria." Saudi Press Agency and Times of Israel

Another Arab view of Iran's nuclear deal

Marwan Bishara is the senior political analyst for the Qatar-based al-Jazeera, and he appears on both the English and Arabic channels. He's a good analyst, though he's consistent with Qatar's policies in that he's stridently anti-American, anti-Israeli, and anti-Palestinian Authority, while he's pro-Hamas. Thus, he provides a good overview of Arab opinion (my transcription):

"It's important for everyone, and I'll add that it will affect everything in the Middle East, and everything in terms of western relations to the Middle East, in so many ways.
Everything from the energy markets to the arms race - the economic well-being of citizens in Iran to the elections in the United States, from security in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf region, to the war in Yemen. from ISIS, and the developments in Iraq and Syria, to what's going on in Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, Egypt, North Africa, and so forth.
So I think probably every aspect of the political strategic life of the Middle East region will change, and the world's approach to the Middle East region will change with it."

BBC correspondent Frank Gardner, quoted above, said that a Saudi concern is that Iran will replace Saudi Arabia as America's big strategic partner. Bishara expressed the same concern in a more colorful way:

"My idea is that we're going to be seeing slowly the phasing out of Iran as the bogeyman and the phasing in of ISIS.
For our viewers around the world, it's good to remind everyone that for the last 5 or 6 decades, every 10 years, Washington and the West in general have had a bogeyman in the region. So in '58 it was Nasser of Egypt, in '68 it was Yasser Arafat of Palestine, '78 it was Ayatollah Khomeini, in '88 it was Saddam Hussein, in '98 it was Osama Bin Laden, back in 2009 it was again Iran's Ahmadinejad, and now we're going to al-Baghdadi and ISIS.
The Saudis and the rest of the Arab world in general are probably happy that Iran's nuclear program has been verifiably limited to civilian development. But everyone is worried about what the rest of the deal means in terms of a strategic opening for Iran."

Bishara's colorful description doesn't have all the dates right, but it expresses the view that the "bogeyman" target will move from Iran to ISIS, and implies that, at the same time, Iran will be the US partner, while the Saudis may be blamed for ISIS.

What's most interesting about Bishara statements is that he foresees major changes throughout the Mideast because of the Iran nuclear deal. He doesn't detail what those changes are, but it's easy to guess what he means: Iran will use the billions of dollars that Iran will now receive, to worsen the wars in Yemen, as well as the conflicts in Syria and Iraq; Iran will support terrorist organizations throughout the region, from North Africa to Bahrain. Bishara sees these and other changes as having major effects in the Mideast, far broader than anyone is saying. Politico and DPA

Generational Dynamics view of Iran nuclear deal

As long-time readers know, I've been saying for almost ten years that Iran would be our ally in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. This has actually been pretty obvious since the early 2000s, when Iranian college students were holding pro-West and pro-American demonstrations. Those college students are today increasingly in positions of power.

Ten years ago, the prediction seemed preposterous to most people, but we've all watched it coming true in the last couple of years, as those college students are now in their 30s. The Iran nuclear deal is a big step forward in that prediction, for the reasons outlined above by Frank Gardner and Marwan Bishara.

In recent weeks, as it's becoming more and more apparent that the Generational Dynamics analyses are coming to pass, I've been getting a lot more questions. I've been discussing these issues at length for years, but here's a summary:

China is preparing for a preemptive missile attack on the United States, at a time of its choosing. China has been developing and deploying hundreds or perhaps thousands of missiles with no other purpose than to attack American aircraft carriers, military bases, and cities. This will lead to a world war. There's no guarantee that the US will survive, but it's more likely that a devastated US will survive, and that China will be destitute and destroyed.

China will be allied with its close ally, Pakistan.

China will also attack India. India is preparing for a two-front war with China and Pakistan. India will be ally of the United States and the West.

Iran is in a generational Awakening era, and appears to be very close to an Awakening era climax. (The last time this happened in the United States was the 1974 resignation of Richard Nixon.) This will signal a complete generational victory of the generation that grew up after the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution over the old geezers from the war who are still alive. There are people who are predicting regime change in Iran, and this is how it will occur. The younger post-war generations are pro-Western and have no desire to push Israel into the ocean. However, they do want to build a nuclear weapon, as protection from Israel and Pakistan.

Furthermore, Shia Muslims and Hindus have been allied in wars against Sunni Muslims since the seminal Battle of Karbala in 680, and so Iran and India will be allies against Pakistan, China, and the Sunni Arab states.

Ethnic Russians are highly xenophobic towards Sunni Muslims, and many would like to see the North Caucasus Muslims be gone, one way or another. Russians also hate the Mongols and the Chinese, after centuries of wars, and love the Europeans, despite wars. Russia is also a close ally of India. So Russia will be the ally of Iran, India and the West against the Sunni Muslims and Pakistan and Turkey.

Anyone who says that Russia represents an existential threat to the United States, as one American General did last week, is completely out of touch with reality, in my opinion, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis. Those who believe that Russia could never be an ally of the United States should recall that Stalin was a bitter enemy of the United States before and after World War II, and a close ally of the United States during WW II. The political choices that politicians make become completely irrelevant during an existential generational crisis war.

Putting all this together, America will be allied with India, Iran, and Russia against China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Arab states.

So I agree with Marwan Bishara when he says that there will be massive changes throughout the Mideast following the Iran nuclear deal, from regime change in Iran to bigger sectarian Sunni-Shia conflicts throughout the region, finally ending up in all-out war.

Congratulations to my readers for sticking with all this

Every once in a while I receive a very nice e-mail message, and would like to share it with everyone:

"Every few months I feel compelled to write you. First and foremost I thank you for your HARD WORK. I see what you do collecting, sorting, packaging and sending out a concise snapshot of what's really going on in the world. I don't waste my time watching news on television since they are always chasing the cheap and easy stories that come in the form of press releases from the White House. Because of your e-mails, I knew about Syria two years before ABC, NBC, or CBS talked about what was going on. Just now, people are taking notice of China's financial problems."

The writer is one of the almost 500 people who receive the daily Generational Dynamics World View article by subscribing to the daily e-mail message. Others subscribe to the RSS Feed. Some tens of thousands read it on the Generational Dynamics web site or the Breitbart National Security web site.

I'd also like to congratulate you, Dear Reader, for sticking with this. It's not easy going to read these articles, since the news isn't good. I can tell you that there are many people who couldn't find Iran on a map if their lives depended on it, and who go to their happy places when someone gives them bad news. You, Dear Reader, are definitely not in that category.

The American mainstream media just slavishly prints whatever the White House tells them to print, and so it's almost always good news, even if it almost always turns out to be wrong. But I issued a challenge in 2005 to anyone to find any web site, any politician, any analyst, or any journalist that has a more successful predictive record than my web site. Several people have taken up that challenge, but none has succeeded because no such web site or politician or journalist exists. The Generational Dynamics methodology is a major breakthrough in analyzing and relating historical events to current events, and its predictions have been almost 100% correct over 12 years.

So I hope that you will continue reading the daily World View articles, and that you will use the information to take whatever actions you can to protect yourself, your family, your community and your nation. That's the only thing that can make this effort worthwhile.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (15-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Jul-2015 15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal

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Congratulations to my readers for sticking with all this

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Jul-2015
15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal