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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Aug-2015
24-Aug-15 World View -- Asian stock markets in freefall, with China in full-scale panic

Web Log - August, 2015

24-Aug-15 World View -- Asian stock markets in freefall, with China in full-scale panic

North and South Korea negotiate as both sides prepare for war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

North Korea mobilizes its troops and submarines
North and South Korea negotiate as both sides prepare for war
Flood of Syrian migrants into Europe continues to grow
Asian stock markets in freefall, with China in full-scale panic

North Korea mobilizes its troops and submarines

South Korean soldiers near the DMZ on Sunday (Yonhap)

South Korean soldiers near the DMZ on Sunday (Yonhap)

Although peace negotiations between North Korea and South Korea are ongoing, the North has mobilized thousands of its troops near the DMZ, the border with the South, and 50 North Korean submarines, about 70% of its fleet, have left port and remain undetected by South Korean radar. This is the highest level of North Korean military activity in years.

In response, the South Korean military is maintaining full readiness and mobilizing more antisubmarine assets such as destroyers, P-3C patrol planes and Lynx antisubmarine helicopters.

These activities come in the midst of long-scheduled joint military exercises between South Korea and the U.S. Arirang (Seoul) and Yonhap (Korea) and Korea Herald

North and South Korea negotiate as both sides prepare for war

It's very hard for me to get excited about the threats of war from North Korea's child dictator, Kim Jong-un, that have been going on almost daily for years, or for South Korea's empty expressions of outrage over any hostile action that the North Koreans take.

In April 2010, North Korea launched a torpedo that sank the Cheonan, a South Korean navy warship, in South Korean waters, drowning 46 people. Then in November 2010, North Korea launched an artillery attack on on South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island, killing civilians. ( "26-Nov-10 News -- South Korea in chaos over North's attack")

In those and other cases, South Korea responded by carefully avoiding officially blaming the North Koreans, even though there was never any doubt that the North Koreans were to blame. The reason for the reticence was that to blame the North Koreans would force South Korea to respond military, resulting in a war.

(As an aside, the Chinese have conducted massive cyber attacks against the US government, and the US government uses every possible wording to avoid blaming the Chinese. The reason is the same -- blaming the Chinese for an act of war would require American retaliation.)

Although South Korea did not retaliate, there was a substantial increase in public nationalism, and hostility to the North. The South Korean government promised that the next military provocation by the North would be met with a military response.

Earlier this month, two South Korean soldiers were wounded by land mines planted in the so-called demilitarized zone (DMZ) that separates the two countries, and was defined in 1953 by the armistice that ended the active fighting in the Korean War.

Once again, South Korea decided not to take military retaliation. Instead, the South Koreans began broadcasting anti-North propaganda via loudspeakers on the end of the DMZ into North Korea.

As mild as this form of retaliation seems to be, it appears to have completely infuriated the child dictator, who threatened war if the loudspeakers were not turned off.

The South Koreans offered to turn them off only if the North Koreans apologize for the landmine in the DMZ earlier this month. The North refused to do so, and set a deadline of 5 pm on Saturday for the South to turn off the loudspeakers or face war.

However, peace talks began on Saturday, and are apparently continuing into Monday.

So the question remains whether North Korea will actually use those troops and submarines it's mobilized. Analysts are suggesting that the negotiations will succeed with the North expressing regret for the landmine but not apologizing, and the South turning off the loudspeakers. Arirang (Seoul) and Reuters

Flood of Syrian migrants into Europe continues to grow

Migrants from Syria and Afghanistan travel to Turkey, through Istanbul to Greece, through Greece to Macedonia, where they take the train to Belgrade Serbia, and then walk or hitchhike 100 miles to Hungary's border.

Migrants from Syria and Afghanistan travel to Turkey, through Istanbul to Greece, through Greece to Macedonia, where they take the train to Belgrade Serbia, and then walk or hitchhike 100 miles to Hungary's border.

Because of the weather, this is probably the peak season for migrants from the Mideast and Africa attempting to reach Europe.

On Saturday, there were some 5,000 migrants in Greece on the border with Macedonia. Macedonian police officers tried to prevent them from entering their country, but more than 1,500 pushed through the barbed wire, with the police trying to stop them with batons and stun grenades.

In the meantime, the Greek passenger ship "Eleftherios Venizelos" is traveling back and forth carrying 2000-2500 migrants each trip from the islands of Lesbos, Kos and Chios to the Port of Piraeus. Many of them will take buses to Thessaloniki, and from there join the throng trying to pass into Macedonia.

The Macedonians are now letting most of them into the country, since they're only going to pass through to Serbia. From there, they'll try to pass through to Hungary, which would put them into the Schengen zone, allowing visa-free travel from country to country. They want to get through the border as quickly as possible, since Hungary is building a double-fence to keep them out, and it's supposed to be completed within a couple of weeks.

The other route taken by Syrian refugees is overland to Libya, where human traffickers pack them into rubber boats and push them out into the Mediterranean Sea, where the migrants hope that European naval vessels will rescue them before the rubber boats sink, drowning them all.

Italy's coast guard rescued 4,400 migrants on Sunday, the biggest single-day operation mounted to date. The increase in rescues prompted criticism from an Italian government official:

"This must be a joke. We are using our own forces to do the people smugglers' business for them and ensure we are invaded."

Greek Reporter and BBC

Asian stock markets in freefall, with China in full-scale panic

As of this writing on Sunday evening ET (Monday morning in Asia), Asian markets are down 1-3% in different countries, that is being called a "broad-based meltdown."

An hour after the Shanghai stock market opened, the index was down over 7%. It seems pretty clear that China's stock markets are in a state of full-scale panic.

Futures in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are down 220.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Aug-15 World View -- Asian stock markets in freefall, with China in full-scale panic thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (24-Aug-2015) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Aug-2015 24-Aug-15 World View -- Asian stock markets in freefall, with China in full-scale panic

North Korea mobilizes its troops and submarines

North and South Korea negotiate as both sides prepare for war

Flood of Syrian migrants into Europe continues to grow

Asian stock markets in freefall, with China in full-scale panic

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Aug-2015
24-Aug-15 World View -- Asian stock markets in freefall, with China in full-scale panic