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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Sep-2016
23-Sep-16 World View -- US and Turkey headed for collision in Syria

Web Log - September, 2016

23-Sep-16 World View -- US and Turkey headed for collision in Syria

A major new flood of refugees starting to flee from Mosul in Iraq

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Turkey's Erdogan blames the EU for reneging on the refugee deal
With Turkey 'left alone,' Erdogan announces refugee plan conflicting with US plans
A major new flood of refugees starting to flee from Mosul in Iraq

Turkey's Erdogan blames the EU for reneging on the refugee deal

Refugees in a refugee center south of Mosul, February 14, 2016 (Reuters)

Refugees in a refugee center south of Mosul, February 14, 2016 (Reuters)

In his speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan blamed the European Union for not fulfilling its commitments in the EU-Turkey refugee deal:

"As a response to this, the promises made by the EU to Turkey were unfortunately not been kept. ...
Turkey was left alone since the beginning of Syrian conflict and once again I think we are facing the same consequence. ...
As Turkey, with a humanitarian-centered approach, we have kept our borders wide open to those fleeing tyranny and oppression. ...
In a world, where babies are murdered, no one can remain innocent. We should immediately, promptly and resolutely take action to stop this crisis, otherwise we won't have the opportunity to explain to the future generations why we were delayed in our actions."

Erdogan's point is that Turkey is hosting three million refugees from Syria and Iraq, but European Union promises of aid have not been kept, leaving Turkey to solve this overwhelming problem on its own, despite the help that Turkey has given to Europe in dramatically slowing the flow of refugees across the Aegean Sea to Europe. Anadolu (Ankara) and Al Monitor

With Turkey 'left alone,' Erdogan announces refugee plan conflicting with US plans

In his UN speech, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey has been "left alone," and he made it clear that Turkey is now going to solve its overwhelming refugee problem in its own way, but that way could put it into direct conflict with US plans in Syria.

Turkey's invasion of Syria, called "Operation Euphrates Shield," has created a "safe zone" of about 900 square kilometers (560 square miles).

In his speech, Erdogan announced plans to increase the size of the "safe zone" to 5,000 square kilometers (3,100 square miles), and he stated three goals:

A "no-fly zone" over northern Syria to prevent the regime’s aircraft from attacking;
A "safe zone" where displaced Syrians could be resettled;
Cooperation with the United States to train and equip the Syrian opposition fighting against the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.

The expanded safe zone would be controlled by Turkey, and would achieve another major objective not mentioned: preventing the Kurds from controlling a long strip of land along Turkey's border, stretching almost all the way from the Mediterranean in the west to Iraq in the east. The safe zone would push the Kurds south and east, keeping them far from Turkey's border.

Erdogan's objectives would appear to be well coordinated with the US, but drilling down into the details reveals big conflicts.

The city of Raqqa in Syria is the de facto capital of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). The US military is preparing a campaign to be launched in October to recapture Raqqa from ISIS. The US plans to directly arm the Syrian Kurds to fight ISIS in Raqqa.

However, Turkey considers the Syrian Kurdish militias to be terrorist groups, linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The PKK has conducted several large terrorist attacks in Turkey in the last year, they are considered a terror group by the US and the EU. So Turkey wants nothing to do with the Kurdish militias in Syria, and strongly opposes the US plan to arm them. ARA News (Syria-Kurdish) and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters

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A major new flood of refugees starting to flee from Mosul in Iraq

A major new humanitarian disaster appears to be imminent in Iraq, as over a million refugees may flee Mosul as Iraqi forces begin an extremely bloody battle to evict ISIS from Mosul.

Many of the refugees are expected to flee to Kurdistan, the Kurdish-controlled area of Iraq. Kurdistan currently hosts more than 1.8 million refugees, and another half-million or more refugees pouring into Kurdistan would completely overwhelm its ability to feed and provide shelter. The UK has already promised to give $52 million to Iraq, ahead of the Mosul offensive, to prepare for the influx, but Kurdish officials say that billions more in aid are needed. Fox News and ARA News and Al Arabiya

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Sep-16 World View -- US and Turkey headed for collision in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (23-Sep-2016) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Sep-2016 23-Sep-16 World View -- US and Turkey headed for collision in Syria

Turkey's Erdogan blames the EU for reneging on the refugee deal

With Turkey 'left alone,' Erdogan announces refugee plan conflicting with US plans

A major new flood of refugees starting to flee from Mosul in Iraq

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Sep-2016
23-Sep-16 World View -- US and Turkey headed for collision in Syria