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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Sep-2017
15-Sep-17 World View -- Burma's (Myanmar's) ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas leading to humanitarian catastrophe

Web Log - September, 2017

15-Sep-17 World View -- Burma's (Myanmar's) ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas leading to humanitarian catastrophe

Rohingya genocide forces India to choose between Burma and Bangladesh

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Burma's (Myanmar's) ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas leading to humanitarian catastrophe
At press conference, Boris Johnson and Rex Tillerson make delusional statements
Rohingya genocide forces India to choose between Burma and Bangladesh
North Korea fires another ballistic missile over Japan

Burma's (Myanmar's) ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas leading to humanitarian catastrophe

Aung San Suu Kyi giving her ironic Nobel Peace Prize lecture in 2012, wherein she called for international protection of refugees

Aung San Suu Kyi giving her ironic Nobel Peace Prize lecture in 2012, wherein she called for international protection of refugees

Genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Rohingyas in northern Rakhine state by Burma's Buddhist army continues.

According to the United nations, 389,000 Rohingyas have fled into Bangladesh since August 25, 10,000 in just the last 24 hours. 60% of those arriving are children. Dozens are being killed or losing limbs by tripping land mines placed by Burma's army on the border with Bangladesh.

Within Bangladesh, there's a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. Bangladesh officials are restricting NGOs from delivering food, water and other humanitarian aid to the hundreds of thousands of Rohingyas, because that would only encourage them to stay. Bangladesh officials are insisting that Burma must take back all the Rohingyas that have fled across the border. Burmese officials are refusing, or saying that they'll only take back the ones who have papers proving Burmese citizenship -- which none of them have.

Starting in 2011, Buddhists have been attacking Muslims in villages across Burma, particularly the 1.1 million ethnic Rohingyas in Rakhine State. Mobs of Buddhists have attacked Muslims, conducting atrocities including torture and rape, killing hundreds and forcing hundreds of thousands to leave their homes to flee from the attacks. Buddhist civilians have joined the Burmese army in burning down entire Rohingya villages to the ground. On August 25, Rohingya activists retaliated with carried out coordinated attacks against 30 Burma police outposts. This triggered massive violence by Buddhist civilians and the Buddhist army.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said that the attacks by Burmese security forces on Rohingyas are "completely unacceptable." He told reporters:

"The humanitarian situation it is catastrophic. When we met last week there was 125,000 Rohingya refugees who had fled into Bangladesh. That number has now tripled to nearly 380,000. Many are staying in makeshift settlements or with those communities who are generously sharing what they have. But women and children are arriving hungry and malnourished.
[Question: Is this ethnic cleansing?]
A third of the [Rohingya] population had to flee the country - can you find a better word to describe it?"

BBC and AP

At press conference, Boris Johnson and Rex Tillerson make delusional statements

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the word "catastrophic" certainly does apply to this situation, not just because of the humanitarian aspects, but because of the explosive nature of this event for entire region.

Long-time readers are aware that I keep pointing out that it's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people. So, for example, the Holocaust and World War II would have occurred with or without Adolf Hitler. It was the masses of German people who brought about the Holocaust, not Adolf Hitler.

So it's true that Burmese officials, including Aung San Suu Kyi, are to be condemned for supporting and conducting genocide and ethnic cleansing targeting the Rohingyas. But it's the masses of Buddhist Burman people who are bringing about the genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas, as we described last week, as acts of revenge for what happened in World War II. At that time, the Buddhists were on the side of the Imperial Japanese, fighting the British colonists and the Rohingyas. There were massive atrocities committed on all sides, and those atrocities by the Buddhist Burmans, by the Muslim Rohingyas, and by the Christian British, are now being paid back. As that article describes, the murderous Buddhist hatred for the Rohingyas is deep and entrenched, and cannot be changed by some vote in the UN Security Council.

So that's why statements by Britain's Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson at a press conference in London on Thursday are naïve to the point of being delusional.

Boris Johnson said (my transcription):

"To answer directly your point about Daw Suu state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi - let's be clear. She led Burma after a period of decades of repression by a military junta. And I yield to no one in my admiration of what she stood for, and the way she fought for democracy. I think many people around the world share that admiration. But I think it's now vital for her to use that moral capital and that authority to make the point about the suffering of the people of Rakhine.
And I think - nobody wants to see a return to military rule in Burma. Nobody wants to see a return of the generals. But it's also vital that the civilian government and that is Daw Suu - for whom as I say I have a great deal of administration - but it is vital for her now to make clear that this is an abomination, and that those people will be allowed back, to Burma - and that preparation is being made, and that the abuse of their human rights and the killings hundreds, perhaps even thousands, the killings will stop."

For an example of very deep historical irony, read Aung San Suu Kyi' "Nobel Peace Prize Lecture" when she won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012: Nobel Prize Foundation

Boris Johnson obviously has great affection for Aung San Suu Kyi, whom he calls by a familiar name Daw Suu, but if Daw Suu were suddenly to express any sympathy for the Rohingyas, and for the atrocities, rapes and murders that her government is perpetrating on the Rohingyas, she would probably raped or murdered herself. As Leo Tolstoy says, describing Napoleon's invasion of Russia, where "millions of Christian men killed and tortured each other": "Had Napoleon then forbidden [his soldiers] to fight the Russians, they would have killed him and have proceeded to fight the Russians because it was inevitable."

So now let's turn to Rex Tillerson's statement:

"With respect to the horrors that we are witnessing, occurring in Burma, I think it is a defining moment in many ways for this new emerging democracy - although it is a power sharing arrangement - we all clearly understand that - and so we appreciate the difficult and complex situation Aung San Suu Kyi finds herself in, and I think it is important that the global community speak out in support of what we all know is the expectation is towards the treatment of people, regardless of their ethnicity, and that this violence must STOP, this persecution must STOP, it's been characterized by many as ethnic cleansing - that must STOP. And we need to support Aung San Suu Kyi and her leadership, but also be very clear and unequivocal to the military power sharing in that government that this is unacceptable, and this is going to many ways define the direction that Burma will take. They need our strong support, we should give them our strong support."

This statement is just a delusional as Boris Johnson's statement. The violence will not stop, the persecution will not stop, and the ethnic cleansing will not stop. Even if some agreement could be reached for a ceasefire, it would be only a temporary ceasefire.

Except for North Korea, the situation with the Rohingyas is probably the most dangerous in the world right now, the most likely to trigger a major war.

It's expected that hundreds of thousands more Rohingyas will flee Burma for Bangladesh, where they're not wanted. This is going to bring about a great deal more Rohingya activism, and terrorist attacks in Burma. At some point, Bangladesh may feel it necessary to take military action to force the Rohingyas back to Burma, the only alternative being to set up huge new refugee camps. Jihadists from Saudi Arabia to Indonesia are taking notice of the atrocities that the Buddhists in Burma are perpetrating on the Muslim Rohingyas, and it's almost certain that there will be backlash from al-Qaeda. Telegraph (London) and AFP and Reuters

Rohingya genocide forces India to choose between Burma and Bangladesh

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi initially took a position completely on the side of Burma, with the foreign ministry saying that India stands firmly with Myanmar in its "fight against terrorism."

This came on the heels of an announcement by the home office that India would deport its entire Rohingya population, thought to number about 40,000.

According to an Indian analysis, there are several reasons why Modi sided so heavily with Burma, and against Bangladesh and the Rohingyas:

One, Myanmar helps India tackle insurgency threats in the latter’s northeastern states.

Two, Myanmar is key to the success of India’s Act East policy. The purpose of this policy, announced in 2014, is to promote security, stability and prosperity of the northeastern states of India, and this requires cooperation with Myanmar. (However, it also requires cooperation with Bangladesh.).

Three, a public condemnation of Myanmar will only push it closer to China. Myanmar is anyway dependent on Beijing’s veto in the UN Security Council should the Rohingyas issue reach there.

Four, India is also aware of the possible role of Pakistan-based terror groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) in the 25 August terrorist attacks by Rohingya activists.

It's significant that Myanmar has announced categorically that its territory will not be allowed to be used for militant activities against India.

However, Narendra Modi has had to slightly modify his policy, by acknowledging the seriousness of the situation caused by the flow or refugees. The reasons are:

Like Myanmar, Bangladesh too is important to India’s counter-insurgency efforts and Act East policy.

Bangladesh's pro-India government is threatened by a domestic backlash because of the massive rush of refugees, and this backlash would be strengthened by India's full support for Myanmar.

India's full support for Myanmar's policies would strengthen the cooperation between anti-India elements in both Bangladesh and Pakistan.

India is walking a tightrope between Myanmar and Bangladesh, but has not yet been able to condemn Myanmar’s excessive use of force in the Rakhine state. Live Mint (India) and Swarajya (India) and BBC (5-Sep)

North Korea fires another ballistic missile over Japan

Map showing that the new missile test is considerably more powerful than the previous one on August 29, and that Guam is now within reach (Korea Times)

Map showing that the new missile test is considerably more powerful than the previous one on August 29, and that Guam is now within reach (Korea Times)

As I'm writing this on Thursday evening ET, North Korea has launched another ballistic missile.

Several leaders and analysts have come out with strong hard-hitting statements like, "This is completely unacceptable," and "No one's going to tolerate this sort of thing."

The United Nations Security Council will have another emergency meeting on Friday. Korea Times

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Sep-17 World View -- Burma's (Myanmar's) ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas leading to humanitarian catastrophe thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (15-Sep-2017) Permanent Link
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