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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Mar-2018
22-Mar-18 World View -- How China would lose a war with the United States

Web Log - March, 2018

22-Mar-18 World View -- How China would lose a war with the United States

ISIS-linked terrorists in Afghanistan kill 32 in bombing of Shia Shrine in Kabul

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Massive earth fissure suddenly opens up in mid-Kenya, signaling an eventual split in all of Africa
How China would lose a war with the United States
ISIS-linked terrorists in Afghanistan kill 32 in bombing of Shia Shrine in Kabul

Massive earth fissure suddenly opens up in mid-Kenya, signaling an eventual split in all of Africa

A portion of the fissure where a gap was opened in a highway (Mwakilishi)

A portion of the fissure where a gap was opened in a highway (Mwakilishi)

A massive crack in the earth suddenly opened up two weeks ago, apparently triggered by large rainstorms that caused dangerous flooding. The fissure is already several miles long and is growing.

The fissure opened up a gap in major road, but engineers from the China Communications Construction Company immediately began major repairs of the road, building a bridge across the fissure.

There have been no reports of casualties, but one family reported that their house split in two while they were eating dinner, forcing them to flee.

Geologists say that Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania and half of Ethiopia could separate from the African continent to form a new continent dubbed the Somali Plate in the next 50 million years. Kenya Broadcasting and The Nation (Kenya) and Mwakilishi (Kenya)

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How China would lose a war with the United States

For over ten years I've been writing, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, that the China and the United States would be opposed to each other in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war.

As I've indicated many times in the past, China is expected to repeat the situation in World War II, when it faced an external enemy (Japan) and also had a major internal rebellion, Mao Zedong's Communist Revolution.

Although in the grand scheme of things, there's never a guarantee that the US will survive such a war, in the past few years it's seemed increasingly likely that the US will not only survive, but will actually win this war. This is because China's belligerent actions have turned much of the world against China, and China would be facing multiple enemies besides the US.

An analysis by the Indian think tank SAAG has outlined China's strategic vulnerabilities:

Estimates of China's "strategic and military might have been overblown both on scale and magnitude."

"What the United States could not achieve through diplomacy for decades," China has handed to the US through its military belligerence. Many Asian nations that have been neutral or even inimical to the United States are now US allies.

Pacific nations are in varying stages of military alliance with the United States because of China's South China Sea military aggression. Japan, South Korea, India and Australia are strongly allied with the US.

Russia may be in a strategic nexus with China, but it is only a tactical expedient.

China is friendless in sub-regions of Asia. Among East Asian nations, China cannot count on anyone but Cambodia and to some extent Thailand.

In South Asia, the China-Pakistan axis presents a "Two-Front military threat" to India, and China appears to have gained ground in Nepal, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Bhutan and Bangladesh through the use of "economic doles." But the influence of China in these countries is fraying, even in Pakistan, where the "average Pakistani is questioning the Pakistan Army’s furthering China’s gains at the expense of China’s ‘colonization’ of Pakistan."

Since Narendra Modi came to power, India's war preparedness has been increased, after "abject neglect" in the previous government.

China's internal security has been worsening, with border regions like Xinjiang and Tibet in a state of unrest. With China's economy slowing down, domestic discontent is bound to grow.

There are likely to be violent disturbances generated by thousands of senior Party officials, Army Generals and others whom Xi Jinping has removed by using false charges of corruption, in order to become an unchallenged dictator. There is an explosive mix of internal security and domestic unrest waiting to be ignited by a solitary incendiary spark originating externally or internally, or both.

I would add one more item to this list: I've been comparing the path that China is following to the path that Nazi Germany followed -- Xi Jinping's "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" is the same as Hitler's "National Socialism," Xi's blaming Britain and the Opium Wars for humiliating China is the same as Hitler's blaming the Jews and World War I for humiliating Germany. Xi and Hitler both became total dictators after winning elections.

Another big similarity is that the Chinese believe that they're superior not only to Americans but to any other group on earth, and that they can defeat any of them quickly in a war. China isn't using the phrase "Master Race" that Hitler used, but reading news stories from China conveys the same feeling. So the item that I would add to the list is vast overconfidence.

Friedrich Nietzsche said, "Insanity in individuals is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule." In 1860, America's southern states started the Civil War, even though they had no chance against the North, which was three times the size. In 1941, Japan started the Pacific war, even though they had no chance against the US, which was five times the size. Overconfidence leads absolute dictators to make catastrophically bad decisions.

Assuming that the analysis is correct that China would be likely to lose such a war, that doesn't mean that the war won't occur, or that the war won't be disastrous for the entire world, as well as China, or that billions of people won't die from nuclear weapons, conventional weapons, ground war, famine and disease. China's actions are going to lead to a world war, and historians will look back on the Chinese as being worse than the Nazis. South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG - India)

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ISIS-linked terrorists in Afghanistan kill 32 in bombing of Shia Shrine in Kabul

A suicide bomber killed at least 32 people on Wednesday by exploding near a historic Shia shrine in Kabul, where worshippers had gathered to mark Ashura, the holiest day in the Shia calendar. The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed credit.

The target was Shia ethnic Hazaras, which have been the target of almost a dozen terror attacks in the last two years. The Taliban, who are mostly ethnic Sunni Pashtuns, fought against Hazaras in the extremely bloody Afghan civil war of the early 1990s, climaxing in 1996. Many of these attacks are revenge attacks from that war.

ISIS claimed credit for the attack on the web site of its Amaq public relations agency. With the defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, tens of thousands of ISIS fighters have been returning to their home countries. The perpetrators of Wednesday's attack may have been an existing Taliban group that pledged allegiance to ISIS, or they may have been veteran terrorists returning from ISIS.

As I've written many times, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there is absolutely no possibility whatsoever that the Afghan will be resolved peacefully. The younger generations that grew up after the Afghan civil war are now coming of age, and are anxious to exact revenge for atrocities that occurred during the war. As more of these youngsters grow older, the violence will only increase and occur more frequently. Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Washington Post

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Mar-18 World View -- How China would lose a war with the United States thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (22-Mar-2018) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Mar-2018 22-Mar-18 World View -- How China would lose a war with the United States

Massive earth fissure suddenly opens up in mid-Kenya, signaling an eventual split in all of Africa

How China would lose a war with the United States

ISIS-linked terrorists in Afghanistan kill 32 in bombing of Shia Shrine in Kabul

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Mar-2018
22-Mar-18 World View -- How China would lose a war with the United States