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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Jun-2018
1-Jun-18 World View -- Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now

Web Log - June, 2018

1-Jun-18 World View -- Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now

Egypt mediates a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now
Egypt mediates a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas

Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now

Hamas rally in Gaza

Hamas rally in Gaza

As another round of Gaza border violence after Friday prayers is possible again today, Israeli officials are hoping that a ceasefire mediated by Egypt will hold.

For weeks, starting on March 30, there would be clash between Palestinian protesters and the Israeli army on the border between Gaza and Israel. The clashes peaked on May 14, when 62 Gazans were killed, and hundreds of injured. According to Hamas, 50 of the 62 killed were members of Hamas, while the other 12 were civilians.

The latest burst of violence began on Tuesday evening of this week when, according to Israel's military, 180 Iranian-made rockets and mortar shells were fired from Gaza into Israel, reaching over six miles into Israeli territory. The rocket attack continued through Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Seven Israelis were reported wounded by shrapnel in the rocket and mortar attack.

Hamas is the governing authority in Gaza, but it's believed that the rockets and mortars were launched not by Hamas but by another Gaza terror group, Islamic Jihad. It's not clear whether Hamas knew about the attacks in advance.

Israeli warplanes retaliated for the attacks by striking by striking 65 Hamas and Islamic Jihad targets throughout Gaza, according to the Israeli military. These targets included a tunnel that traversed Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and penetrated half a mile into Israel. No casualties were reported in Gaza. Israeli forces targeted encampments that appeared to have been vacated in anticipation of attack. AFP and Israel National News (16-May) and Haaretz

Egypt mediates a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas

The events on Tuesday and Wednesday were a major escalation of violence, the worst since the 67-day summer war between Israel and Gaza in 2014. United Nations officials expressed concern that the Gaza war would be restarted in full force.

The fighting stopped on both sides on Wednesday morning, thanks to a ceasefire agreement mediated by Egypt. The ceasefire agreement also included a new attempt to reconcile the differences between the two political factions, Hamas in Gaza, and the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank, led by Mahmoud Abbas. Israeli officials are hoping that the ceasefire will hold, but new demonstrations are planned for next week on Tuesday, June 5.

After the 2014 Gaza War, Egypt brokered a reconciliation agreement between Hamas and the PA, to form a "unity government". The new government would contain ministers and MPs from both Hamas and Fatah, and would govern both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

The concept of a Palestinian unity government has never been more than a delusional fantasy. After several decades of living separately in the Gaza and the West Bank, they are no longer a single Palestinian people. The two groups are as different as the French and the English.

Hamas has repeatedly refused to relinquish any of its control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority. Mahmoud Abbas has tried squeezing Hamas economically in several ways, such as by cutting payments to Israel for the electricity that Israel supplies to Gaza. This led to sharp reductions in power in Gaza, less than four hours on many days.

Hamas is facing its worst crisis in years, with a severe cash shortage, living conditions being compared to an "open air prison," and unemployment rate of 40%. Hamas has lost several former allies -- the Muslim Brotherhood, Syria and Iran -- because of the coup in Egypt, and because Mideast wars in Syria and Yemen have dried up resources by former donors.

Hamas became so desperate that last year it agreed to some of the terms of the proposed unity government, including giving the PA some governing authority in Gaza. However, these attempts at reconciliation fizzled as quickly as they started.

However, the core differences are insurmountable without war. Hamas and PA will never reconcile, just as Hamas and Israel will never reconcile. The two-state solution is a fantasy.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Jews and the Arabs will have a major new war, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Egypt Today and RTE (Ireland) and Washington Post

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Jun-18 World View -- Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (1-Jun-2018) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Jun-2018 1-Jun-18 World View -- Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now

Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now

Egypt mediates a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Jun-2018
1-Jun-18 World View -- Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now