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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Jul-2018
28-Jul-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houthi missile strikes tanker

Web Log - July, 2018

28-Jul-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houthi missile strikes tanker

Saudis renew airstrikes on Houthis in Yemen's Hodeidah seaport

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houthi missile strikes tanker
Saudis renew airstrikes on Houthis in Yemen's Hodeidah seaport

Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houthi missile strikes tanker

File photo of vessels sailing in Bab al-Mandeb Strait

File photo of vessels sailing in Bab al-Mandeb Strait

Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, temporarily suspended all oil shipments through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which controls access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal from the Indian Ocean.

The announcement was made after Saudi oil tankers were attacked by missiles launched by the Houthis in Yemen. It's believed that the missiles were supplied by Iran. The Iran-backed Shia Houthis, which represent about 15% of Yemen's population, invaded and took control of Yemen's capital city Sanaa in late 2014, driving out the Saudi-supported Sunni government. A war began in March 2015, which the Saudis claimed they would win quickly. However, the war is still going on three years later, with no end in sight.

On Wednesday, the Saudi oil company Saudi Aramco issued the following statement:

"As confirmed a short while ago by the Saudi Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, H.E. Khalid Al-Falih, two Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), each with a two million barrels capacity, operated by the Saudi National Shipping Company, Bahri, and transporting Saudi Aramco crude oil were attacked by terrorist Houthi militia this morning in the Red Sea. One of the ships sustained minimal damage. No injuries nor oil spill have been reported.
In the interest of the safety of ships and their crews and to avoid the risk of oil spill, Saudi Aramco has temporarily halted all oil shipments through Bab El-Mandeb with immediate effect. The Company is carefully assessing the situation and will take further action as prudence demands."

Saudi Arabia has been sending 600,000 barrels a day of crude oil from the Persian Gulf to buyers in Europe and North America.

Saudi Arabia says that the closure is temporary, and there are currently no plans to permanently close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, but if it were closed then tankers would have to take a much longer trip by traveling around the southern tip of Africa. For example, a voyage from Saudi Arabia to Rotterdam takes about 22 days via the Bab el-Mandeb and Suez Canal, compared with 39 days around Africa, According to one analyst, the announcement had already added $1 to the cost of a barrel of oil on stock markets.

Bab al-Mandeb is a very important shipping lane, and permanent closure would have much greater consequences than just the price of oil. Egypt, Europe and the United States would have to intervene, according to one analyst:

"They have significant interests in protecting the freedom of the seas through the passageway. An international intervention against the Houthis may be just what Saudi Arabia wants."

The Houthis have also claimed that on Thursday they struck Abu Dhabi international airport in United Arab Emirates (UAE) with a drone. However, UAE officials deny that such an attack occurred. Saudi Aramco and Bloomberg and Al-Jazeera and Press TV (Iran)

Saudis renew airstrikes on Houthis in Yemen's Hodeidah seaport

The Saudi-led coalition launched heavy air strikes on Houthi targets in Hodeidah seaport in Yemen on Friday. The Saudis had agreed to stop the airstrikes on July 1, at the request of the United Nations, to give the UN envoy an opportunity to negotiate with both sides and reach a ceasefire.

On June 13, Saudi Arabia and UAE launched a "catastrophic" assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen, to regain control of it from the Houthis, who had captured it in 2015. The Saudis expressed the hope that the attack on Hodeidah could convince the Houthis to sue for peace in the proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

However now, six weeks later, the battle for Hodeidah has ground to a halt. The Houthis had been much better prepared for the battle than the Saudis had expected. The Houthis had heavily planted landmines, and positioned snipers everywhere. The Saudis had simply underestimated the Houthis.

The Houthi missile attack on the Saudi oil tankers has changed the scope of the war somewhat, since it's now a more international war than it had been. The Saudi-UAE coalition is using the missile attack as justification to resume the airstrikes on Hodeidah, and by closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait, they may hope to receive additional international support for the war. Al-Jazeera and Reuters and Middle East Eye

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Jul-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houthi missile strikes tanker thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (28-Jul-2018) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Jul-2018 28-Jul-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houthi missile strikes tanker

Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houthi missile strikes tanker

Saudis renew airstrikes on Houthis in Yemen's Hodeidah seaport

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Jul-2018
28-Jul-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houthi missile strikes tanker