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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Oct-2018
18-Oct-18 World View -- Ukraine counters Russia's military buildup in the Sea of Azov

Web Log - October, 2018

18-Oct-18 World View -- Ukraine counters Russia's military buildup in the Sea of Azov

Violent school massacre in occupied Crimea kills 19 people

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Ukraine counters Russia's military buildup in the Sea of Azov
Ukraine prepares to challenge Russia in the Sea of Azov
Violent school massacre in occupied Crimea kills 19 people

Ukraine counters Russia's military buildup in the Sea of Azov

Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov.

Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov.

Readers who remember ancient history (2014) may recall a war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia invaded Donbas (eastern Ukraine) and is still occupying it, and then Russia invaded, occupied and annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula.

The war in Donbas has not ended, as there have been regular clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces. These clashes have occasionally been severe enough for observers to raise concerns that Russia was planning a new offensive for Russian forces to attack and occupy the seaports at Mariupol and Berdyansk, and then continue to move west in order to create a land bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea.

That hasn't happened, but many observers believe that Russia is making preparations to accomplish the same objective through a naval attack from the Sea of Azov. In the last three years, the Russians have been doing the following:

Built a bridge from Russia to occupied Crimea over the Kerch Strait.

Use this bridge to control access of commercial ships to Ukraine ports along the Sea of Azov.

Relocate an armada of Russian ships into the Sea of Azov.

Constantly harrass international shipping through the Kerch Strait and in the Sea of Azov. According to the US State Department, Russia has blocked dozens of commercial ships trying to reach Ukrainian ports.

Many observers believe that these steps are all in preparation for a naval assault on Mariupol, Berdyansk, and other Ukrainian ports along the Sea of Azov, with the objective of creating a land bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea, and to taking full military control of the entire Sea of Azov. US State Dept. and RFE/RL and RFE/RL (7-Aug)

Ukraine prepares to challenge Russia in the Sea of Azov

Following years of neglect, Ukraine is hurriedly tying to reinforce its naval capabilities in the Sea of Azov. Ukraine is considering buying three Danish Standard Flex 300 patrol vessels for $117 million, and has received two Island-class Coast Guard cutters from the United States. These vessels will be upgraded and deployed in the Sea of Azov.

However, this attempt to stand up an "Azov Flotilla" will not be enough to challenge Russia's overwhelming naval presence, consisting of around 50-70 Russian "coast guard" vessels.

For that reason, Ukraine is also formulating a diplomatic and political strategy to challenge Russia. This would include seeking support from Nato and the European Union, and lodging a complaint against Russia at the Permanent Court of Arbitration.

With both Ukraine and Russia becoming increasingly aggressive, the Sea of Asov is becoming an increasingly important flash point that could lead to a new conflict.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, both Russia and Ukraine are in a generational Crisis era. In 1932-33, millions of innocent Ukrainians – men, women, and children – starved to death as a result of the deliberate policies of the regime of Joseph Stalin. The genocidal atrocity is known as the Holodomor, which means "death by hunger." Stalin's regime seized crops and farms across Ukraine, leaving the population to starve to death. It's quite possible that Russia's president Vladimir Putin would like to find a way to repeat Stalin's achievement. Jamestown and Daily Signal and Sputnik News and Government of Ukraine and (Trans)

Related Articles:

Violent school massacre in occupied Crimea kills 19 people

CCTV image of shooter Vladislav Roslyakov on Wednesday at school. His outfit is similar to that of Columbine High School killer Eric Harris

CCTV image of shooter Vladislav Roslyakov on Wednesday at school. His outfit is similar to that of Columbine High School killer Eric Harris

An 18-year-old Russian student, Vladislav Roslyakov, on Wednesday exploded a homemade nail bomb and then went on a shooting rampage, killing 19 others before killing himself in the school library.

The mass school shooting at occurred at the Kerch Polytechnic College, in the city of Kerch in occupied Crimea. The city is located on the eastern shore of Crimea on the Black Sea near the Kerch Strait.

Russian officials initially went into their usual spin and deception mode, trying to hide what happened, or put the blame on anyone but themselves. They first reported it as a gas explosion, and then said it was a terrorist bombing.

Russian politicians in Crimea's parliament then tried to put the blame on Ukrainian nationalists, saying, "The entire evil inflicted on the land of Crimea is coming from the official Ukrainian authorities." But friends of the shooter said that the teenager hated the school and that he wanted revenge against his teachers.

There are similarities between this school shooting and the April 20, 1999, massacre at Columbine High School, in Columbine Colorado that killed 13 people. Roslyakov was dressed in an outfit similar to that of Eric Harris, one of the killers in the Columbine massacre. Furthermore Roslyakov killed himself in the school library, just as Harris and his partner killed themselves in the school library. CBS News and Daily Mail (London) and AP

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Oct-18 World View -- Ukraine counters Russia's military buildup in the Sea of Azov thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (18-Oct-2018) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Oct-2018 18-Oct-18 World View -- Ukraine counters Russia's military buildup in the Sea of Azov

Ukraine counters Russia's military buildup in the Sea of Azov

Ukraine prepares to challenge Russia in the Sea of Azov

Violent school massacre in occupied Crimea kills 19 people

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Oct-2018
18-Oct-18 World View -- Ukraine counters Russia's military buildup in the Sea of Azov