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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Nov-2018
17-Nov-18 World View -- North Korea 'Charm Offensive' appears to have run its course

Web Log - November, 2018

17-Nov-18 World View -- North Korea 'Charm Offensive' appears to have run its course

North Korea announces a 'Newly Developed Tactical Weapon'

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

North Korea announces a 'Newly Developed Tactical Weapon'
The 'Charm Offensive' has almost run its course

North Korea announces a 'Newly Developed Tactical Weapon'

Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, North Korea, on 19-Sep-2018 (AP)

Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, North Korea, on 19-Sep-2018 (AP)

As the charm offensive involving the Koreas and the United States continues, the North Koreans have made their next move, with an announcement in North Korean media that "Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un Supervises Newly Developed Tactical Weapon Test."

The news report describes the weapon as an "ultramodern tactical weapon", and combines a description of the child dictator's glee with claims that his father Kim Jong-il had the engineering skill to have personally directed the new weapon's development:

"After seeing the power of the tactical weapon, Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un was so excited to say that another great work was done by the defense scientists and munitions industrial workers to increase the defense capability of the country and the weapon system whose development Chairman Kim Jong-il had chosen personally and directed step by step with his special attention paid to it was born at last. He added that the weapon is just like a posthumous weapon and he missed Kim Jong-il very much while seeing the great success of its test. ...
He expressed great satisfaction, saying the great success serves as another striking demonstration of the validity of the Party policy of prioritizing defense science and technology and the rapidly developing defense capability of the country and as a decisive turn in bolstering the fighting capacity of the Korean People's Army."

No further description was given of the weapon. It's described as a "tactical weapon," and one online definition of that phrase says that "Tactical weapons are designed for offensive or defensive use at relatively short range with relatively immediate consequences." We assume then that the word "tactical" was used purposely to imply that the weapon would not be used against the United States, but could be used against South Korea.

We further assume that therefore this announcement was meant as a warning to South Korea's president Moon Jae-in. We take note of the fact that North Korea has never repudiated its primary mission of using military force to reunite North and South Korea under North Korean control.

So one purpose of the announcement is to reassure the North Korean domestic audience that weapons development is continuing, and preparations for an invasion of the South are continuing.

A second purpose might be retaliation for the resumption by the US and South Korea earlier this month of some minor joint military marine drills.

Third, we can assume that Kim's announcement was intended as a threat of war to South Korea, unless Moon Jae-in meets Kim's demands, including declaring an end to the Korean War, and convincing President Trump to agree to reduce sanctions. DPRK Today and Reuters and ABC News

The 'Charm Offensive' has almost run its course

A year ago at this time, it appeared that the United States and North Korea were close to war, after multiple nuclear and ballistic missile tests by the North Koreans.

The climate changed dramatically early in January, when Kim Jong-un began his "charm offensive," based on North Korea's participation in the Olympics games in Seoul, South Korea.

Donald Trump and Moon Jae-in immediately responded with their own "charm counter-offensive." All sides stood down from threats and threatening actions, and had a sort of love-in, with various summit meetings and actions like clearing land mines along the South-North border.

It was quickly apparent to everyone that North Korea had no intention to denuclearize under any circumstances. Nonetheless, the charm offensive/counter-offensive has been a great convenience that has met the needs for all sides:

North Korea has been able to continue nuclear and ballistic message development in secret, with only the restriction that no open testing would be possible.

North Korea could use the charm offensive to pressure the the US to agree to remove sanctions without denuclearization. North Korea was partially successful in this objective in the sense that China, Russia and other countries are trading with North Korea in violation of the sanctions, thus mitigating their effectiveness.

Moon Jae-in used the charm offensive to pursue a policy of normalizing relations with the North, in order to satisfy his domestic constituency.

Donald Trump used the charm offensive to be able to claim throughout the campaigning for the midterm elections that he was keeping the North from testing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

It was pretty clear to everyone (except the news media and the general public) within a month from the beginning of the charm offensive that it was all a show -- that North Korea would never denuclearize, and that Trump would never agree to reduce the sanctions. But all sides kept it up because it solve their immediate political problems by "kicking the can down the road" -- that is, masking and hiding problems and postponing them until later.

The charm offensive has been going on for almost a year. Could it go on for another year? Maybe. That's the kind of chaotic political decision that cannot be predicted.

President Trump has said that he's in no hurry, implying that he's willing to continue the charm offensive indefinitely if necessary. However, it's the North that is suffering under the sanctions, Kim Jong-un seems to be increasingly impatient about the sanctions.

So it's really up to Kim how long the charm offensive / counter-offensive will last. He may decide that sanctions will never be lifted anyway, and so there's no point in waiting. He may take action next week, next month or next year. All we can do is wait. Yonhap (S. Korea) and Reuters and Defense News

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Nov-18 World View -- North Korea 'Charm Offensive' appears to have run its course thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (17-Nov-2018) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Nov-2018 17-Nov-18 World View -- North Korea 'Charm Offensive' appears to have run its course

North Korea announces a 'Newly Developed Tactical Weapon'

The 'Charm Offensive' has almost run its course

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