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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Aug-2019
10-Aug-19 World View -- Pakistan-India relations downgraded as Kashmir is locked down

Web Log - August, 2019

10-Aug-19 World View -- Pakistan-India relations downgraded as Kashmir is locked down

Pakistan furious at the revocation of Article 370

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Kashmir locked down and isolated, as India changes its status
Modi says revoking Article 370 will benefit Kashmir and all of India
Pakistan furious at the revocation of Article 370

Kashmir locked down and isolated, as India changes its status

Street protests in Srinigar, the capital city of the Indian-government portion of Kashmir, after Friday prayers (AP)

Street protests in Srinigar, the capital city of the Indian-government portion of Kashmir, after Friday prayers (AP)

Kashmir is a bitterly disputed region on the border between India and Pakistan. It's one of the four or five extremely volatile regions in the world where a local war could quickly spread into a larger regional war or even a world war. So a large surge in tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir in the last week is capturing worldwide attention.

Two weeks ago, India sent tens or hundreds of thousands of troops into the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir with no explanation.

It turned out that India deployed the vast army of troops to Kashmir in anticipation of violence that was likely to occur after last week's revocation of Article 370 of India's constitution, which makes Kashmir a semi-autonomous state of India.

India did much more than send in troops. For the last few days, Kashmir has been locked down and isolated. The streets are deserted all day long, because of a strict curfew that requires everyone to stay at home. All phone and internet lines have been shut down, in order to prevent Kashmiris from communicating and planning a riot.

Indian officials are concerned about a large backlash, once the curfew is lifted, and the events that occurred on Friday illustrate those concerns. The curfew was temporarily lifted for Friday prayers. Indian police used tear gas, pellets and live fire to fight back at least 10,000 anti-Indian protesters in Srinagar, Kashmir's capital city.

Indian officials are concerned about what will happen on Monday, when there is a major Muslim festival of Eid Ul Azha. Eid Ul Azha ("Festival of the Sacrifice") is one of the holiest days on the Muslim calendar, and it commemorates the willingness of Abraham to sacrifice his son in obedience to Allah's command.

Modi says revoking Article 370 will benefit Kashmir and all of India

The region's last generational crisis war was the massive 1947 Partition War between Muslims and Hindus that followed the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.

An outcome of that war was that Kashmir was split into two, government respectively by Pakistan and India. Indian-governed Kashmir is populated mostly by Muslims. As a condition for giving control to India, Article 370 was added to India's constitution, giving Kashmir substantial autonomy over its own affairs. Importantly, another article — 35a — also barred people outside the state from buying property there to prevent India’s majority-Hindu population from moving into Jammu and Kashmir and displacing the Muslims who live there.

A possibly unintended consequence of these laws was that girls from Kashmir could not marry men from outside Kashmir. The reason was that residents of Jammu and Kashmir had exclusive rights to property and state government jobs, among other privileges, and women marrying non-residents stood to lose those benefits.

With the revocation of those laws, Kashmir is just another state within India, equivalent to all the other states. Girls can now freely marry outside of Kashmir, but the larger picture is Kashmir's affairs are now decided in New Delhi rather than in Srinigar.

India's prime minister Narendra Modi has justified the revocation of Article 370 by saying that it's harmed the people of Kashmir in the last 70 years, and and that all it has done is to bring nepotism, separatism, and terrorism. He said that the "historic" decision would benefit all the people of Kashmir, and would benefit all of India.

It's not surprising that Modi revoked Article 370, since he has wanted to do so for years, but many analysts are wondering about the timing - why now?

According to some analysts, it's because of the Donald Trump administration. The US is negotiating to remove all of its troops from Afghanistan, and Modi may fear that this will fre up a new wave of terrorists to flood into Kashmir, and saw a need to act preemptively. Modi also may have been concerned by Trump's July meeting with Inran Khan, at which Trump offered to mediate the Kashmir problem for Pakistan and India.

Pakistan furious at the revocation of Article 370

Some 8,000 supporters of the Pakistani political party Jammat-e-Islami demonstrated in Islamabad, Pakistan's capital city (Sky News)

Some 8,000 supporters of the Pakistani political party Jammat-e-Islami demonstrated in Islamabad, Pakistan's capital city (Sky News)

Pakistani officials were caught by surprise by the revocation of Article 370, and have been expressing fury. Officials in Pakistan particularly point to the removal of restrictions on ownership of land and property by outsiders, which were embedded in Article 370. Removing these restrictions might lead to an influx of Hindu immigration into Kashmir, diluting the Muslim population.

There were large anti-India protests in Pakistan's capital city Islamabad, with 8,000 demonstrators in the streets. One young man was quoted: "Yes, we are angry here. We don't want to fight. The last option is to fight ... but if we have to, we will get Kashmir by the sword, by ammunition and guns." Some Pakistani officials were calling for military action against India.

Pakistan's close ally China said that it will "continue to support Pakistan in safeguarding its legitimate rights and interests."

Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan defused some of the anger by saying that instead of military action, they will use diplomatic action. Pakistan has downgraded diplomatic ties with India and suspended trade, and will bring the issue to the UN Security Council.

Sources:

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (10-Aug-2019) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Aug-2019 10-Aug-19 World View -- Pakistan-India relations downgraded as Kashmir is locked down

Kashmir locked down and isolated, as India changes its status

Modi says revoking Article 370 will benefit Kashmir and all of India

Pakistan furious at the revocation of Article 370

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Aug-2019
10-Aug-19 World View -- Pakistan-India relations downgraded as Kashmir is locked down