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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Sep-2019
11-Sep-19 World View -- Donald Trump fires John Bolton over Afghanistan 'Peace Negotiations'

Web Log - September, 2019

11-Sep-19 World View -- Donald Trump fires John Bolton over Afghanistan 'Peace Negotiations'

End of relationship with Breitbart

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Donald Trump fires John Bolton over Afghanistan 'Peace Negotiations'
Donald Trump with Steve Bannon and John Bolton
The Afghan 'peace negotiations'
End of relationship with Breitbart

Donald Trump fires John Bolton over Afghanistan 'Peace Negotiations'

John Bolton

John Bolton

President Donald Trump fired National Security Advisor John Bolton on Tuesday, asking for his resignation on Monday evening, and receiving it on Tuesday morning.

There are reports that there was a very heated argument in the White House on Monday evening, principally between Trump and Bolton, over the collapse this weekend of the Afghanistan "peace negotiations" with the Taliban.

As readers know, I evaluate policies and actions based on Generational Dynamics principles. Left-wing and right-wing analyses are usually delusional and idiotic, and usually turn out to be wrong more often than right. I've written thousands of Generational Dynamics analyses in 15 years, and they've been almost 100% correct. Unfortunately for me, being right all the time when everyone else is wrong doesn't makes me popular, but only makes me universally hated and shunned, but that's the way the world is today. Maybe that's also why Bolton was fired.

So I've had mixed emotions about John Bolton. Bolton has the most realistic view of the world among the major figures in Washington, Republican or Democrat, and having someone with a realistic view of the world advising Trump is valuable. That doesn't mean that I would agree with all of Bolton's recommended policies, and in fact I don't. For example, Bolton's recommendations to force regime change in Iran is overreach, and is clearly in conflict with the Generational Dynamics view of Iran that I've been posting for years. But Bolton is still one of the few people in Washington who know what's going on in the world.

Donald Trump with Steve Bannon and John Bolton

My view of Trump has changed over time. During the election campaign in 2015-16, it was initially clear every time Trump opened his mouth that he had absolutely no clue what was going on in the world. But then something very surprising and unexpected occurred -- Trump hired Stephen K. Bannon as chairman of Donald Trump's campaign, and later as Trump's principal adviser in the White House.

This is something I never dreamed would happen. I had worked off and on with Bannon over a period of years, and he's an expert on both military history and Generational Dynamics analysis. I was comforted by the fact that Trump would be guided by one of the very few people in Washington who knew what was going on in the world.

Even after Bannon left the White House, I wrote numerous articles about how Trump's foreign policy actions were completely baffling to the mainstream media, but made perfect sense once you understand Generational Dynamics analyses, particularly China's plans for war.

Trump pursued extremely successful policies (though completely baffling to the mainstream media) with respect to North Korea, China, Russia, India, and others, and I've attributed this to his grasp of the Generational Dynamics view of the world, that Bannon educated him on, along with Bannon's knowledge of history and Trump's own "Art of the Deal" instincts that have been so successful.

The Afghan 'peace negotiations'

That brings us to Trump's Afghanistan policy. Here's the NBC News description of how John Bolton got fired:

"Most recently, the two had clashed over Trump's desire to have leaders of the Taliban visit Camp David in the days before the Sept. 11 anniversary to finalize peace talks. The idea was strongly opposed by Bolton, even as officials at the State Department argued it could move the parties closer to an agreement, officials said.
Bolton has been deeply skeptical of negotiations with the Taliban. U.S. negotiators have been working under the president’s demand that a drawdown occur before November 2020 when he’s up for re-election."

One has to be careful referencing NBC news, since NBC news frequently lies about White House news, in order to make Trump look bad. However, other reports seen to confirm this explanation, so it's probably safe to assume that it's true.

Reports indicate that there was a major disagreement in the aftermath of the collapse of the Afghan war "peace negotiations," and the cancellation of last weekend's "secret meeting" at Camp David with the Taliban and Afghanistan's president. Bolton was opposed to the meeting, while Trump was apparently looking for a photo op.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Afghan "peace talks" with the Taliban are completely farcical. The Taliban simply want to get the Americans to withdraw, so that they can go back to closing girls' schools and killing Hazaras. The Camp David photo op was harmless, but silly.

My concern with the situation is not that Trump may have wanted the meeting for domestic political purposes. My concern is that Bolton was fired for telling Trump what was actually going on, even though Bolton and Bannon and perhaps only one or two others are the only ones in Washington that have any clue what's going on in the world. So with Bolton fired, I'm not aware of anyone left in the White House who knows what's going on in the world, beyond any simplistic fatuous left-wing or right-wing ideological or political considerations.

Barack Obama never had any idea what was going on in the world, which was particularly apparent when he appointed that idiot John Kerry as Secretary of State. At the end of his term, Obama seemed to have no more knowledge of the world than he did at the beginning.

Originally, it appeared that it would be the same for Trump, until he hired Bannon as his principal advisor to educate him. Trump is still on the correct path with China and North Korea, but with Bolton gone, we may be returning to the same path as Obama, at least in Afghanistan.

So the main problem in firing Bolton is not that Trump fired someone who disagreed with him, but that Trump fired one of the very few people in Washington who know what's going on in the world.

As for the situation in Afghanistan, Generational Dynamics analysis makes it clear that there is no chance whatsoever for "peace" in Afghanistan. A meeting at Camp David is just a meeting, and has no relevance. But if all American troops withdraw, then the Taliban will take over completely, as they did until they were dislodged by the Americans in 2001. They would restore hardline jihadist policies, such as closing girls' schools, and they would beat, rape and torture the Hazaras and other ethnic enemies. They might even sponsor a new bin Laden. The Chinese, who have been developing relationships with the Taliban since 2017, would take over. Fair or not, like it or not, America will be blamed for all of it. I think Bolton understands that, but I don't know whether Trump does.

End of relationship with Breitbart

A number of people have asked me why I no longer cross-post articles on the Breitbart news web site. This is a summary of what happened.

Starting in 2010, I posted over 3,000 articles on the Breitbart web site. For a couple of years, they had almost no international coverage at all on Breitbart, except for my articles. From 2011 through 2018, I posted one or two articles every day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year, missing only about 15 days during that entire eight year period.

Frances Martel took over as editor of Breitbart international news coverage in 2014. She and her staff knew little of international events and issues, beyond the usual right-wing delusions, and so my daily articles served to educate both her and her reporters about what was actually going on in the world. (Both the left wing and the right wing are totally delusional these days.)

And yet Martel always made it clear to me that she would never pay me a penny for the articles I was writing for Breitbart, even though Breitbart was making money from the ads that ran with my articles.

So a few months ago, I cross-posted an article as usual, but this one announced my book, "War between China and Japan." Martel refused to post the article unless I paid her for an "ad buy."

That was insulting and humiliating enough, but there's more. Last year, when I posted the article announcing my Iran book, I estimate that it resulted in 10-20 additional sales, so it was worth about $50 to me, give or take. I would have expected the same result from the announcement of my China book.

I don't know how much this "ad buy" would have cost -- probably hundreds or thousands of dollars -- but it's pretty clear to me that running an ad on Breitbart is almost completely worthless. In fact, if you look at the ads that they do run, they're almost all garbage.

So I've written thousands of articles for Martel, she got ad revenue from the ads that ran alongside my articles, I educated her and her staff about international events, and she refused to pay me a penny. And then she insulted me further by demanding that I pay hundreds or thousands of dollars for a worthless "ad buy," after all I'd done for her, over a period of many years. I did a lot of work for Martel and Breitbart, and they made money from me, but refused to pay me a penny. I wasn't expecting to be treated as a hero, but Martel and Breitbart treated me as a piece of garbage, and I certainly deserved better than that. But with Gen-Xers in charge, that's the way the world is today.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2) Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99, https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1) Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (11-Sep-2019) Permanent Link
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