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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Sep-2019
15-Sep-19 World View -- Mideast tensions grow over Saudi drone attack and missile attacks on Idlib, Syria

Web Log - September, 2019

15-Sep-19 World View -- Mideast tensions grow over Saudi drone attack and missile attacks on Idlib, Syria

Syria regime increases bombing of hospitals in Idlib

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Saudi oil processing facilities targeted by large drone attack
Syria regime increases bombing of hospitals in Idlib

Saudi oil processing facilities targeted by large drone attack

Saudi oil process facility after drone attack (WSJ)

Saudi oil process facility after drone attack (WSJ)

Events in Saudi Arabia and Syria are increasing the probability that a larger war could be triggered.

Reports are that over a dozen explosive drones attacked two oil processing facilities in Saudi Arabia. This is the world's largest oil processing facility. About half of Saudi's oil production will be affected. The closure will reportedly impact nearly five million barrels of crude production a day, roughly 5% of the world's daily oil production. Saudi Arabia also supplies half of China's imported oil.

Saudi officials are saying that the damage can be repaired by Monday. Whether the Saudis are successful at this will affect the oil and stock markets on Monday.

The Houthis, the Iran-backed ethnic group in Yemen fighting against the Yemen government backed by Saudi Arabia, claimed credit for drone attacks.

However, there was a delay of several hours before the Houthis claimed credit, and some analysts are saying that this makes it unlikely that the Houthis were responsible.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed doubt that the Houthis were responsible, and laid the blame on Iran in a tweet:

"Tehran is behind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Arabia while Rouhani and Zarif pretend to engage in diplomacy. Amid all the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply. There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen. ...
We call on all nations to publicly and unequivocally condemn Iran’s attacks. The United States will work with our partners and allies to ensure that energy markets remain well supplied and Iran is held accountable for its aggression 3:59 PM · Sep 14, 2019·T"

It's possible that the drones were launched from Yemen, Iran or Iraq. Whether the Houthis are directly responsible or not, most analysts believe that Iran is behind the attack, especially after several recent Iranian attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

The concerns are that the drone attacks will trigger increased violence, including the following possibilities:

Heavier Saudi bombing of Houthis in Yemen.
Saudi bombing of Iranian targets in retaliation.
US missiles targeting Iran's oil facilities in retaliation.

Syria regime increases bombing of hospitals in Idlib

As we reported two weeks ago, civilians in Idlib province in Syria, where airstrikes by Syria and Russia have been increasing dramatically in recent weeks, are attacking border posts on Turkey's border in order to enter Turkey as refugees. Turkey, which already hosts almost four million Syrian refugees, has firmly closed the border to refugees from Idlib.

Reports indicate that Syrian and Russian airstrikes are specially targeting hospitals and schools, committing war crimes. Ironically, the Syrians and Russians know the coordinates of these hospitals and schools because the coordinates are being supplied by the United Nations so that the Syrians and Russians will AVOID targeting hospitals and schools. So they're using the coordinates in the opposite of the way intended. Syria's Bashar al-Assad and Russia's Vladimir Putin are two of the sleaziest leaders in the world today.

Idlib has about 3 million people, including about 70,000 anti-Assad rebels, some of whom are linked to al-Qaeda. Bashar al-Assad continues all 3 million of them to be "terrorists," to be exterminated like cockroaches. He's said as much several times, and there's no reason to disbelieve him.

More and more, the civilians in Idlib are turning against Turkey, whom they see as "traitors" and "collaborators" with the genocide being performed by Russia and al-Assad.

The worst protests on Turkey's borders are occurring in regions controlled by al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front), with the purpose of forcing Turkey to open its borders to Idlib refugees.

For the past year, the world has been watching and waiting for Bashar al-Assad to open up a full assault on Idlib as he has previously in other regions like Aleppo, Ghouta and Daraa, where he used barrel bombs on hospitals, schools, marketplaces and residential neighborhoods, along with chlorine gas and Sarin gas. Apparently he's been holding back from a full assault, possibly because of international pressure, but there's an increasing feeling that he's losing patience, and is anxious to get on with the genocide.

The Generational Dynamics prediction is that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Jews vs Arabs, Sunnis vs Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. The exact scenario can't be predicted, but either the drone attack or the Idlib genocide could be the spark that starts the war.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1) Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (15-Sep-2019) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Sep-2019 15-Sep-19 World View -- Mideast tensions grow over Saudi drone attack and missile attacks on Idlib, Syria

Saudi oil processing facilities targeted by large drone attack

Syria regime increases bombing of hospitals in Idlib

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Sep-2019
15-Sep-19 World View -- Mideast tensions grow over Saudi drone attack and missile attacks on Idlib, Syria