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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Oct-2019
2-Oct-19 World View -- Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence

Web Log - October, 2019

2-Oct-19 World View -- Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence

Hong Kong violence may be reaching a boiling point

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence
Hong Kong violence may be reaching a boiling point

Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence

Riot police fire projectiles against protesters in Hong Kong on Tuesday (Sky News)

Riot police fire projectiles against protesters in Hong Kong on Tuesday (Sky News)

A protester in Hong Kong was shot by a policeman at point-blank range on Tuesday. He's in the hospital in critical condition. The police say he shot in self-defense.

This was the highlight of the worst day of violence since the pro-democracy protests began 17 weeks ago.

The violence in Hong Kong was a vivid contrast to Tuesday's activities in Beijing. Tuesday was the 70th anniversary of the founding of Communist China, and there were massive military parades and highly nationalistic speeches the entire day.

Hong Kong violence may be reaching a boiling point

Something that's been coming across for weeks in the TV coverage of the Hong Kong riots, much more than in the print coverage, is that they are becoming much more vitriolic and tribal. The police hate the protesters, and the protesters hate the police, especially after today's events, and there's no turning back.

I've been following a lot of anti-government protests for many years, and I've developed a feeling for which ones are more serious than others.

So, for example, the recent pro- and anti-Brexit protests in London were all just kids having fun. The same is true of just about any protest on the mall in Washington DC.

Even violence doesn't necessarily trigger the worst conflicts. I'm thinking of the various student protests in Iran. The thugs in Iran's security forces always go out and beat, rape, torture and jail innocent protesters, but once the period of protest end, there doesn't seem to be any residual violence.

Even the Hong Kong umbrella protests in 2014 did not seem to be a major problem. Everyone seemed to follow the unwritten rules of peaceful protests: The protesters are allowed to chant, block roads, occupy buildings, and even do a little bit of property damage. The police are allowed use physical force, water cannons, tear gas, and even mass arrests. At the end of the day, everybody has had fun, and can go home and brag about it.

But my view is that the Hong Kong protests are becoming increasingly vitriolic, on a trend line for a lot more violence. At the social media level, many mainland postings encourage violence against the protesters, and Hong Kong postings are contemptuous of mainlanders. Protesters and police have been describing each other in increasingly vitriolic and hate-filled terms.

And recall that in mid-July, pro-democracy protesters and ordinary civilians were violently attacked by unidentified men in white shirts, later identified as criminal members of "Triad" gangs. The attack was well-organized, and it is believed that the attacks were organized by Beijing security forces, who didn't want to be seen getting their own hands dirty. The Hong Kong police watched the attacks, but made no attempt to intervene, or to respond to injured civilians begging for help.

As I've written in the past, Hong Kong is on the fault line between northern and southern China. ( "22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China")

Southeast China was the starting point of the last two massive Chinese anti-government rebellions. Mao Zedong's Long March that led to the Communist revolution civil war (1934-49) started in the south. The massive Taiping Rebellion (1852-64), which was led by a Christian convert who believed he was the son of God and the younger brother of Jesus, began in the south and spread north.

The ethnic fault line between north and south is just as active today as it ever was, and China is overdue for a new north-south rebellion. That's why the increasing signs of hatred and vitriol between protesters and police in Hong Kong are significant.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials have been relatively restrained so far. They had hoped that the Hong Kong protests would fizzle before the October 1 anniversary celebration. They were restrained, with the result that the Hong Kong riots overshadowed the anniversary celebrations in Beijing to some extent.

What next? The Hong Kong anti-Beijing activists have hardened their positions, and they claim that they will continue their violent protests. The CCP officials are also hardening their positions. Their only hope is that the protests will fizzle in the months to come. But nobody believes that would end them permanently. The CCP officials know that at some point in the next few months they're going to have to send in the army to bash heads. (Paragraph corrected, 2-Oct)

Sources:

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (2-Oct-2019) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Oct-2019 2-Oct-19 World View -- Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence

Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence

Hong Kong violence may be reaching a boiling point

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Oct-2019
2-Oct-19 World View -- Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence