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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Nov-2019
25-Nov-19 World View -- Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray

Web Log - November, 2019

25-Nov-19 World View -- Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray

Taiwan's separatists boosted by Hong Kong election

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray
Hong Kong pro-democracy activists renew their 'Five Demands'
Taiwan's separatists boosted by Hong Kong election

Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray

Pro-democracy supporters celebrate huge gains in the district council elections (AP)

Pro-democracy supporters celebrate huge gains in the district council elections (AP)

In what is being described as a historic election, pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong's Pan Democracy party have won a massive victory in electing members for local district councils. The elections had a record turnout of 71%, while similar elections in 2015 had a turnout of just 47%. Many of those turning out this time were young first-time voters.

Votes are still being counted. At this time (Sunday evening ET = Monday morning in Hong Kong), the pro-democracy parties have won 201 seats, while pro-CCP parties have won only 28 seats, with 12 seats for independents, out of a total of 452 seats. The other 221 seats have not yet been determined at this time.

Roughly speaking, it appears that pro-democracy parties will control 3/4 of the seats, whereas prior to this election they controlled roughly 1/4 of the seats. So this is a "historic" reversal at this level of government.

There have been some "stunning upsets," with well-established pro-CCP candidates Junius Ho and Michael Tien already losing their seats. These people have been harshly critical of the pro-democracy demonstrations, and have threatened jailing and violence of protesters, even peaceful ones.

In one sense it's only a symbolic victory. The district councils only control such things as parks and taxicabs. They are not as powerful as the city's Legislative Council, which controls the citywide government.

The difference is that anyone is permitted to run for the district council positions, while the only candidates that can run for the Legislative Council must first be approved by the CCP in Beijing. So the local councils are far more democratic, but the Legislative Council is anti-democratic, but far more powerful.

The huge victory follows five months of pro-democracy street protests, mostly peaceful but sometimes becoming violent. The pro-CCP camp had referred to a "silent majority" of voters who who would vote for their candidates, to show their rejection of the violence of the street protesters. But actually, violence worked both ways in this election. Some voted for the pro-CCP candidates because of the street protest violence, but there was also plenty of violence on the other side -- attacks on the peaceful protesters by police and by white-shirt "triad thugs."

Hong Kong pro-democracy activists renew their 'Five Demands'

These historic upsets are going to "put wind in the sails" of the pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and the pro-separatists in Taiwan.

In Hong Kong, pro-democracy activists are now demanding that Carrie Lam finally respond to the five demands that the protesters announced months ago.

The first demand was the withdrawal of the "extradition bill," which would have permitted the CCP to abduct and arrest people in Hong Kong and bring them to the mainland for prosecution. Carrie Lam finally withdrew the bill, but only after several months of equivocation.

During that period, the activists expanded what they wanted to a list of five demands. The five demands are for the withdrawal of the bill, an agreement not to call the clashes of June 12 a riot, amnesty for those arrested on that day, a commission inquiry into allegations of excessive use of force by the police and a push for genuine universal suffrage.

It was thought that the CCP would never agree to any of these demands (except the first), but now activists are saying that the climate must change because of the overwhelming pro-democracy victory in Hong Kong, which refutes the CCP claim of a "silent majority" supporting CCP. The activists claim that this victory forces Carrie Lam to open negotiations on the remaining four demands.

The CCP could do a lot to defuse the situation in Hong Kong by permitting Carrie Lam to open those negotiations with the pro-democracy activists. But that would be the smart thing to do, and as I've written many times, the CCP always one incredibly stupid thing after another. We'll see, but my expectation is that the CCP will do something stupid that will make things worse.

Taiwan's separatists boosted by Hong Kong election

Pro-separatists activists in Taiwan are taking note of the historic election in Hong Kong, and are hoping that they'll affect Taiwan's presidential race in January.

The CCP considers Taiwan to be part of China, and any move to declare Taiwan a separation nation would be an act of secession that would trigger a Chinese military invasion.

Taiwan's current president is Tsai Ing-wen, from the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Tsai is known to favor complete independence for Taiwan, although she always uses weasel words in talking about it, so as not to trigger a Chinese invasion. However, Tsai has spoken openly of her support for the protesters in Hong Kong, much to the displeasure of the CCP.

Tsai's opponent is Han Kuo-yu, who is the candidate of the Kuomintang (KMT) party, which favors merging Taiwan with China.

The CCP has been wooing Taiwan for years by saying that Taiwan could have a "one country, two systems" just like Hong Kong, and wouldn't that be wonderful? Tsai’s latest campaign advertisement makes the assurance that “Taiwan will not become Hong Kong”, while calling on voters to reject the “one country, two systems” model.

Thus, Sunday's elections in Hong Kong are thought to favor Tsai's re-election. The reasoning is that voters will see the overwhelming rejection of the pro-CCP candidates as supporting Tsai in Taiwan.

The CCP in Beijing is already close to full-scale panic over what's happening in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Sunday's vote will prove to the CCP that their worst fears and anxieties are coming true, and it may cause them to panic.

As I keep pointing out, the CCP has a record of doing one incredibly stupid thing after another. I don't know what the CCP will do about the situation in Hong Kong or Taiwan, but I can say with certainty that whatever they do, it will make the situation worse.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (25-Nov-2019) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Nov-2019 25-Nov-19 World View -- Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray

Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray

Hong Kong pro-democracy activists renew their 'Five Demands'

Taiwan's separatists boosted by Hong Kong election

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Nov-2019
25-Nov-19 World View -- Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray