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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Dec-2019
19-Dec-19 World View -- Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border

Web Log - December, 2019

19-Dec-19 World View -- Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border

The complex ménage à trois relationship - Syria, Russia, Turkey - under stress

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border
The complex ménage à trois relationship - Syria, Russia, Turkey - under stress
Assad threatens Turkey

Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border

Map of Syria showing areas of control by Syria, Turkey and Kurds (New Humanitarian)

Map of Syria showing areas of control by Syria, Turkey and Kurds (New Humanitarian)

The United Nations is condemning the escalated bombing by Syrian and Russian warplanes of civilian targets in Syria's northwest province, Idlib.

The bombing has substantially intensified since the beginning of November. Bashar al-Assad's warplanes are specially targeting hospitals, schools, residential neighborhoods and marketplaces in order to kill as many women and children as possible, whom he considers to be cockroaches to be exterminated. Al-Assad is using barrel bombs, which are large barrels filled with explosives, metal, and sometimes chlorine gas, ammonia and phosphorous.

According to Turkey's media, about 110,000 civilians have been forced to leave their homes, as 12,000 of them are headed for Turkey's border, presumably with the intention of crossing.

The numbers are staggering. A million Syrian refugees have come to Europe, mostly by crossing through Turkey. Turkey itself hosts 3.7 million Syrians who fled al-Assad's violence in the past. Idlib is home to 2.4 million residents, but they've been augmented by 1.1 million additional Syrians who arrived in Idlib to escape al-Assad's violence in earlier target sites like Aleppo, Ghouta and Daraa. Of the 3.5 million civilians in Idlib, it's estimated that about 70,000 of them are members of al-Qaeda linked al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) later renamed Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or JFS, and then renamed again to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

For two years, al-Assad has repeatedly said that he considers all 3.5 million residents of Idlib to be terrorists, and that he plans to take control of Idlib, presumably exterminating many or all of those 3.5 million "terrorists." This would create a huge humanitarian crisis, with hundreds of thousands more refugees pouring across the border into Turkey. Many of them would then go on to attempt to cross into Europe.

With the sharp escalation in bombing of Idlib by Syrian and Russian warplanes since the beginning of November, it appears that a full scale assault is likely to begin soon.

The complex ménage à trois relationship - Syria, Russia, Turkey - under stress

Syria's Idlib province has been out of the news for several months now, since the world has been focused on the REALLY important stuff like Brexit and impeachment.

But Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and his Russian puppetmaster Vladimir Putin have been using the time and their respective warplanes for increasing attacks on civilians in Idlib province, including missile attacks on markets, hospitals and schools.

A full-scale attack on Idlib has been expected for a couple of years, but apparently al-Assad has been held back by Russia as part of the complex ménage à trois relationship connecting Syria, Russia and Turkey.

Since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, the objective of Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad is the genocide and ethnic cleansing of all his Sunni Arab political enemies. His father Hafez al-Assad, fought an extremely vicious and bloody ethnic civil war with that ethnic group in the 1980s, and now al-Assad wants to finish the job with his own "final solution." (See "1-Dec-18 World View -- Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria")

So al-Assad's objective in Idlib is to do the same kinds of things that he's previously done in in other regions like Aleppo, Ghouta and Daraa, where he used barrel bombs on hospitals, schools, marketplaces and residential neighborhoods, along with chlorine gas and Sarin gas, in order to clean out and exterminate the three million Sunni Arabs in Idlib, whom he considers worse than cockroaches.

Russia's objective is to keep control of its two military bases in Syria -- the Tartus naval base and Hmeimim airbase. Russia lost all its Mediterranean military bases in the 1990s when the Soviet Union collapsed, and now Russia desperately want to keep these two in Syria. Russia's president Vladimir Putin obtained control of these two military bases in 2015 in return for saving al-Assad from defeat in 2015, when his army was close to collapse.

Russia also wants to remain friendly with Turkey, because Putin wants to pull Turkey away from Europe and Nato. So Putin has held al-Assad back from an all-out attack on Idlib, because that would send millions of refugees across the border into Turkey.

Turkey's objective is to prevent a humanitarian disaster in Idlib that would send those millions of refugees across the border. Turkey is already hosting 3.6 million refugees that fled al-Assad's previous violence in other regions. Furthermore, in eastern Syria, Turkey is well on its way to setting up a buffer zone in northern Syria along the border with Turkey. Turkey would like to expel all Kurds from that buffer zone, and replace them with some two million Syrian refugees that Turkey is currently hosting.

Assad threatens Turkey

So now, getting back to al-Assad, he has frequently stated the intention of exterminating what he views are three million cockroaches in Idlib province, and doesn't care about any humanitarian disaster.

In August, al-Assad visited the Syrian army troops in Idlib, and accused Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan of being a thief, backed by his American master, who steals wheat, petroleum, factories and land from Syria. He again made clear his intention of winning "the Battle of Idlib":

"What Syria has gone through during these nine years can be likened to the chapters of a play prepared and directed and executed by one side, but in each chapter it would have a different main character or actor, and the main actor of the current stage is Erdogan, who was the most successful in being a pawn in the hands of his American master and in being a thief who steals wheat, petroleum, and factories, and now he is trying to steal land. ...
The Idlib front is very important, particularly since it was an advanced outpost for them, while the battle was in the east, which aimed at scattering the army, which is why we have always said that the conclusion of the battle in Idlib is the basis for ending chaos and terrorism across Syria."

This suggests that al-Assad's planned assault on Idlib could end up being a conflict between Syria and Turkey.

Vladimir Putin, the third member of the ménage à trois, will have to figure out how to prevent a war from breaking out if Russia is to maintain its influence with both.

Sources:

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (19-Dec-2019) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Dec-2019 19-Dec-19 World View -- Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border

Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border

The complex ménage à trois relationship - Syria, Russia, Turkey - under stress

Assad threatens Turkey

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Dec-2019
19-Dec-19 World View -- Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border