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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Jan-2020
1-Jan-20 World View -- US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters

Web Log - January, 2020

1-Jan-20 World View -- US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters

The link to the 1979 attack on US embassy in Tehran

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters
Mainstream media reactions
The link to the 1979 attack on US embassy in Tehran

US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters

Three of the five militia leaders who attended the protest at the U.S. Embassy, from left to right: Hadi Al-Amiri, Qais al-Khazali, and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis (Memri)

Three of the five militia leaders who attended the protest at the U.S. Embassy, from left to right: Hadi Al-Amiri, Qais al-Khazali, and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis (Memri)

Happy New Year everyone!

A detachment of 100 Marines are deploying from Kuwait to Iraq to reinforce security at the US Embassy in Baghdad. Hundreds more American soldiers are planned for deployment. The Baghdad embassy is the largest US embassy in the world.

On Tuesday, hundreds of pro-Iranian Iraqis, led by Qais al-Khazali, stormed the embassy. There was some property destruction, and some fires were set, but the embassy was not evacuated.

The US ambassador to Iraq, Matthew Tueller, was away on a trip, but said that he is immediately returning to the embassy. According to one analyst, Behnam Ben Taleblu, "It's important for him to come back because it would be a show of force that America is not going to flinch in the face of this pressure."

The attack on the US embassy was led by Qais al-Khazali, founder of the Iran-backed Shia terrorist group Asaib Ahl al Haq militia, responsible for hostage-taking and the killing of U.S. soldiers. However, al-Khazali's terrorists have also won seats in Iraq's parliament, under pressure from Iran.

The attack was a response to US airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah terrorists that have been attacking American bases with artillery, and on Friday killed an American contractor. (See yesterday's article, "31-Dec-19 World View -- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah provoke international fury")

According to al-Khazali: "Americans are unwanted in Iraq. They are a source of evil, and we want them to leave."

For months, there have been massive anti-Iran protests in Iraq, threatening to completely distabilize the Iraqi government which is mostly dominated by Iran. Leaders of these protests on Tuesday made it clear that they do not agree with al-Khazali, and that their protests had absolutely nothing to do with and had no relation to the attacks on the US Embassy.

Mainstream media reactions

As usual, reporters with the mainstream media stumbled over themselves in a rush to make one idiotic statement after another.

The NY Times was heavily criticized after it called the US embassy attackers "mourners" in an idiotic tweet: "Hundreds of Iraqi mourners tried to storm the United States Embassy in Baghdad, shouting 'Down, down USA!,' in response to deadly American airstrikes this week that killed 25 fighters."

Chris Murphy is a 46-year-old Democrat on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee. Two months ago I heard him on giving a speech on al-Jazeera that was so idiotic that I wrote an article on the Generational Dynamics forum 23-Oct-2019 World View: The stupidest person in Congress - Chris Murphy. The occasion was a speech where Murphy blamed the deep historic split in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between Saudi Arabia and Qatar on Donald Trump. The concept is so idiotic that al-Jazeera just played the sound byte without saying a word about it.

Now Chris Murphy is blaming the attack on the US embassy in Tehran on Donald Trump: "Trump has rendered America impotent in the Middle East. No one fears us, no one listens to us."

It's not surprising that a NY Times reporter would say something so dumb as to call the Shia terrorists "mourners." Most of these reporters are kids out of college where they majored in women's studies or sociology, following years of declining SAT scores, and most of them probably couldn't find Iraq on a map.

But I'm singling Chris Murphy out because he says unbelievably stupid things even though he's been on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee for six years, and should know better. He's supposed to be an expert. He's supposed to be making American foreign policy. But he's an idiot. This goes we'll beyond ignorance into sheer stupidity.

In 2006, the Congressional Quarterly and the London Times conducted a survey of Mideast experts (Democrats and Republicans), and found that they couldn't answer simple questions like whether al-Qaeda was a Sunni or Shia organization. (As I recall, most thought they were Shia.) You know, I really do despair that the country is being run by total idiots. And the "experts" in China are also idiots. But this is why we're headed for World War III.

There's a larger picture here. There are a lot of people, Republicans and Democrats, like Murphy, who believe that if any event occurs anywhere in the world, then it occurred because either the President of the United States did something or didn't do something.

What Generational Dynamics says, and what has been proven over and over again, is that major events in the world have absolutely nothing to do with the US president except as a target of convenient political blame.

There are deep-seated hatreds in the Mideast going back millennia, and they keep bubbling to the surface every few decades in the form of a war. In particular, despite what Murphy says, the split in the GCC had nothing to do with the president, and the attack on the embassy is based on Iran-Iraq animosity unrelated to America, and closely related to the extremely bloody and vicious Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s.

The link to the 1979 attack on US embassy in Tehran

In yesterday's article, I wrote that it seemed likely that the attacks by Kataib Hezbollah on American bases were done purposely to bait the United States, and force a response. Since the US has no choice but to respond to a military attack on its base, especially when an American is killed, the attack achieved that purpose.

Despite all the mainstream media nonsense, Iran is deeply in trouble. In recent months, there have been thousands of anti-government protesters in Iran, and thousands of anti-Iran protesters in Iraq. This is increasingly a threat to Iran's control of Iraq's government, and even a threat to the Islamic regime inside Iran itself.

As I've said many times over the years, the standard playbook in Iran is to repeat the Iranian Hostage Crisis that took place in the context of Iran's civil war in 1979. At that time, Iranian terrorists stormed the American embassy in Tehran, making the terrorist leadership of Iran into international heroes.

The people in the leadership in 1979 were young and fun-loving, willing to slit somebody's throat on a bet. Today those leaders are very old geezers, still willing to split anyone's throat, but now desperate to hold onto power. And like a person who tries to relive the most exciting erotic experience of his childhood, the old geezers in Iran are trying to trying to relive their fun-loving attack on the US embassy in Tehran in 1979.

One of the terrorist leaders of Tuesday's attack, Abu Alaa Al-Walai, leader of Kata'ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada, tweeted the following:

"The popular mobilization forces, more accurately the mobilized people, surrounded today the embassy of evil in Baghdad and will soon surround the camps and headquarters of the U.S. killers that are spread all over the Iraqi lands. ...
[The demonstrators will go further to surround] the embassies of [America's] tails and submissive countries, [including Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain].
The siege of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran back in 1979 extends to today's siege of the embassy in Baghdad, 2019. It summarizes the history: Allah will bring victory to those who support Him."

Notice two things about this statement. The obvious one is linking Tuesday's embassy attack to the 1979 embassy attack.

But also notice the reference to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain. These are the members of the GCC opposing Qatar, and they're also heavily involved in opposing the Iran-supported Houthis in the Yemen War. So Tuesday's attack on the US embassy touches on many deep divisions among the Mideast countries.

So now, based on multiple analyst descriptions, we can put together a more complete narrative of Tuesday's attack on the US embassy:

Iran is in deep trouble because of massive anti-government protests in Iran, and anti-Iran protests in Iraq.
In order to control the public narrative, Iran's Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ordered Kataib Hezbollah (KH) to attack American bases, which it has done dozens or hundreds of times in the last few months.
Finally KH struck gold -- and killed an American on Friday, forcing an American response.
American airstrikes killed 27 KH terrorists, along with weapons stores.
Iran ordered Qais al-Khazali to mobilize his terrorists and attack the US embassy in Baghdad.
The plan was successful to this extent: The media is now talking about the embassy attack, rather than the massive anti-Iran protests.

Iran and Iraq are still in a generational Awakening era, and the most likely scenario now is that these anti-embassy attacks will fizzle fairly quickly.

Once again, Happy New Year everyone! However, the decade doesn't begin until 1/1/2021, so don't celebrate that yet.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (1-Jan-2020) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Jan-2020 1-Jan-20 World View -- US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters

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Mainstream media reactions

The link to the 1979 attack on US embassy in Tehran

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Jan-2020
1-Jan-20 World View -- US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters