	Generational Dynamics
	Modern Generational Theory

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY STUDIES \| COMMENT \| FORUM \|
\| DOWNLOADS \| FOURTH TURNING ARCHIVE \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Jan-2020
11-Jan-20 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party expected to win Saturday presidential elections

Web Log - January, 2020

11-Jan-20 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party expected to win Saturday presidential elections

Hong Kong chaos boosts Tsai Ing-wen and DPP in Taiwan

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Taiwan's pro-independence party expected to win Saturday presidential elections
Hong Kong chaos boosts Tsai Ing-wen and DPP in Taiwan

Taiwan's pro-independence party expected to win Saturday presidential elections

The Lennon Ship on the campus of Taipei National University of the Arts, built by students from Hong Kong in support of Tsai Ing-wen (SCMP)

The Lennon Ship on the campus of Taipei National University of the Arts, built by students from Hong Kong in support of Tsai Ing-wen (SCMP)

Taiwan's presidential election occurs on Saturday. The voting has already begun at the time I'm writing this article (Friday evening ET), and the voting may be over by the time you read this.

The election results are almost certain to be very bad news for the leaders of Chinese Communist Party (CCP). It is almost certain that the current president Tsai Ing-wen will be reelected. Tsai is leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which favors independence of Taiwan from China.

China has repeatedly threatened military action to invade Taiwan and annex it to China. Indeed, my book "War Between China and Japan - why the US must be prepared" contains a detailed historical analysis of China's current plans to invade Japan to get vengeance for World War II, and to invade Taiwan to annex it.

In 2005, China passed an "Anti-Secession Law" that stated that China will take military action in response to anything that even hints at independence:

"Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful re-unification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity."

Passage of this law in China in 2005 provoked massive riots and anti-China demonstrations in Taiwan.

Tsai's chief opponent is Han Kuo-yu of the opposition Kuomintang Party, which is the modern day descendant of the Nationalist Party formed by Chiang Kai-shek in the 1920s. Mao Zedong's Communist Revolution civil war (1934-49), split northern China from Southern China. Chiang lost militarily to Mao, and many people in southern China fled to Hong Kong, which was then a British colony, and from there to Formosa and Taiwan. Chiang's Kuomintang party maintained iron rule in Taiwan until the 1990s, when the Taiwan independence movement led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) began to rise, especially after the Taiwanese people watched the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in horror. Tsai has one more opponent, James Soong Chu-yu, chairman of the smaller People First Party.

Hong Kong chaos boosts Tsai Ing-wen and DPP in Taiwan

The victory by Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP in January 2016 was considered historic because it was a large, decisive victory, and so was a major setback for the CCP.

However, the DPP lost badly in local elections in 2018, and might well be on her way to losing the current presidential election, if it were not for the chaos in Hong Kong from pro-democracy protests that began in June of last year.

Hong Kong was a British colony prior to 1997, and Taiwan was a Japanese colony prior to the end of World War II, but Hong Kong and Taiwan see themselves as very close. [DELETED: They both favor the Cantonese dialect of the Chinese language over the Mandarin dialect favored by the CCP.] And they both favor freedom and democracy, which the CCP considers to be a Western plot to overthrow the CCP. They're still in shock from 1991 when a pro-democracy movement in the Soviet Union caused the Russian Communist Party to collapse. (Paragraph corrected: Most Taiwanese people speak the Mandarin and Taiwanese dialects. 11-Jan)

The CCP has been trying to convince the people of Taiwan to adopt the supposedly wonderful "one country, two systems" formula used in Hong Kong. The argument appeared to be winning until last year, when it became clear that the CCP was violating the agreement in Hong Kong, with acts that led to the massive street protests. It became clear to the Taiwan people that "one country, two systems" would just lead to putting the island in control of the brutal, violent CCP dictatorship.

A number of analysts have been suggesting that things have calmed down in Hong Kong because of the approaching Taiwan election, since the pro-democracy students in Hong Kong are supporting the re-election of Tsai Ing-wen. This follows a historic victory by pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong in November. ( "25-Nov-19 World View -- Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray")

If this is true, then it means that Saturday's election in Taiwan, if the DPP wins as expected, has the potential to be extremely significant. Two major pro-democracy elections at nearly the same time in Hong Kong and Taiwan may throw the CCP thugs into a panic. This could be even worse if, once the Taiwan election is over, Hong Kong returns to extreme chaos again in the weeks to come.

The CCP leaders in Beijing are hoping that if they remain calm, then the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong will fizzle, and the pro-independence movement in Taiwan will die. As I've said many times, the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong cannot end, because all young people in Hong Kong know that if they marry and bring children into the world, then the children will be under the control of the brutal, violent CCP dictatorship in 2047. The same would happen in Taiwan.

If the Taiwan election goes as expected, then the CCP leaders in Beijing are going to be looking ahead to a long 12 months in 2020 where the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong and the pro-independence movement in Taiwan will grow. This isn't going to change, no matter how much the CCP thugs pretend to be "nice."

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/

Sources:

Related Articles:

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (11-Jan-2020) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Jan-2020 11-Jan-20 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party expected to win Saturday presidential elections

Taiwan's pro-independence party expected to win Saturday presidential elections

Hong Kong chaos boosts Tsai Ing-wen and DPP in Taiwan

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Jan-2020
11-Jan-20 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party expected to win Saturday presidential elections