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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Feb-2020
11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey

Web Log - February, 2020

11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey

Russia will finally be forced to choose sides -- between al-Assad and Turkey

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey
Russia will finally be forced to choose sides -- between al-Assad and Turkey

Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey

Turkish soldiers gather in Idlib, Syria (AFP)

Turkish soldiers gather in Idlib, Syria (AFP)

Turkey and Syria appear close to war, as the forces of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad have begun targeting and killing Turkish soldiers in Turkey's "observation posts" in Idlib province. ( "9-Feb-20 World View -- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib")

According to a statement by Turkey's defense ministry, five Turkish soldiers were killed and five more wounded by "the regime's intense artillery fire [that] targeted our elements sent as reinforcement to the region with an aim to prevent clashes in Idlib, ensure our border security and stop migration and human tragedy."

Turkey said it carried out sweeping retaliation, hitting 115 Syrian targets with strikes that killed dozens of Syrian troops, three Syrian tanks, two artillery unites, and a military helicopter.

Turkey has established 12 observation posts, as I described in my last article. Those observations posts were under a September 18, 2018, agreement in Astana, Kazakhstan, between Turkey's president Tayyip Recep Erdogan and Russia's president Vladimir Putin. Bashar al-Assad was not party to the agreement.

Russia's job would be to hold back al-Assad from attacking civilians in Idlib. Turkey's job would be to separate out the "terrorists" from the civilians, so that al-Assad could kill the "terrorists" without harming the civilians. The problem is that al-Assad considers all of the Sunni Arabs in Idlib to be "terrorists," cockroaches to be exterminated by any means as quickly as possible.

According to Turkish media, al-Assad began attacking Turkish forces in the observation posts early last year, with attacks reported on April 29, May 4, May 12, May 31, June 8, June 27 and August 19. Erdogan threatened retaliation each time, but took no action. Now the Turks are retaliating.

Russia will finally be forced to choose sides -- between al-Assad and Turkey

Bashar al-Assad is a sociopathic monster and war criminal who wants to complete the work begun by his father, Hafez al-Assad, in exterminating the Sunni Arabs in Syria and replacing as many of them as possible with Alawites and Shia Muslims.

Al-Assad's horrors have been well documented. In 2014, an al-Assad defector supplied 55,000 photos of about 11,000 men whom al-Assad had tortured using electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation, and beating on prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale. Al-Assad was so pleased and proud of this torture that he made sure each act was photographed. ( "22-Jan-14 World View -- Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria")

Throughout my lifetime, I've heard people describe the Holocaust and say, "Never again!" But al-Assad is a man who gets obvious pleasure from gouging out people's eyes or pulling out their fingernails, or sending missiles into school dormitories to kill children, or dropping barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons on civilian neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill large groups of people. He considers all Sunni Muslims to be cockroaches to be exterminated. Bashar al-Assad is the greatest genocidal monster in today's world, comparable to Hitler, Pol Pot, Mao Zedong and Stalin from the last century. There is no mass weapon of destruction, nor any gruesome form of torture, that he won't use to satisfy his psychopathy.

So there's no chance at all that al-Assad will agree to any "political solutions." He will not stop until he's satisfied that his father's enemies have been completely exterminated. And there are already about a million displaced people in Idlib crowded along the border with Turkey.

The situation is intolerable for Turkey. Erdogan cannot simply "observe" as al-Assad slaughters many Sunni Arab men, women and children -- not to mention that many of them are ethnic Turkmens. And Turkey cannot tolerate millions more Syrian refugees, in addition to the 3.6 million Syrian refugees that Turkey is already hosting.

Al-Assad expects Russia to continue supporting him, as he slaughters the civilians in Idlib. He knows that Putin couldn't care less how many of them get slaughtered. All Putin cares about is keeping control of his two military bases in Syria that he was given in return for supporting al-Assad -- the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase.

Erdogan expects Russia to support him -- because that's what Putin agreed to in their meetings in Astana and Sochi. Turkish media points out that there are many agreements between Turkey and Russia such as the S-400 deal and TurkStream and other bilateral and military cooperation deals. All of those deals would be in jeopardy if Russia sides with al-Assad, and doing so might even lead to war between Turkey and Russia. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars")

I'm aware of only one possible "compromise" solution that's being discussed. Turkey would take control of 20-30 mile wide strip of land in northern Idlib along the border with Turkey. This would be a "safe zone" or "buffer zone," where perhaps millions of displaced Sunni Arabs would live, under the protection of Turkey.

Any such buffer zone would be intolerable to al-Assad, and so this "compromise" would work only if Putin forced it on him.

But unless something major changes Turkey will soon be at war with Syria, and possibly with Russia.

Sources:

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (11-Feb-2020) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Feb-2020 11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey

Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey

Russia will finally be forced to choose sides -- between al-Assad and Turkey

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Feb-2020
11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey