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Syria war in Idlib close to explosion
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
Two elderly Iranian nationals died of coronavirus in a Qoms hospital on Wednesday. They had not recently traveled outside of the Qoms area.
This is significant because it means that they must have been infected communally as much as two weeks ago, which indicates that there must be a cluster of cases in Qoms.
This is the kind of outbreak we expect to see increasingly frequently. Iran has a close relationship with China, as do many African countries, and many individuals travel between China and these countries.
A coronavirus outbreak in Iran could quickly spread to Iraq and Syria.
The situation in Idlib, which I've been reporting on almost every day, is about to explode. On Wednesday, Erdogan gave a speech threatening both al-Assad and Putin. In the meantime, al-Assad's army is pushing a million people, mostly women and children, towards to the border with Turkey. It won't be long before coronavirus starts spreading among those million people.
And then either Turkey and Syria will be at war, or else Turkey will open the border and allow those million refugees with coronavirus to flow into Europe.
There are hard deadlines and hard positions here. It seems unlikely that anyone will back down, and so this situation is expected to explode by March 1.
Sources:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(20-Feb-2020)
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