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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Mar-2020
2-Mar-20 World View -- Coronavirus updates -- infections spread across the world

Web Log - March, 2020

2-Mar-20 World View -- Coronavirus updates -- infections spread across the world

Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) observations

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Coronavirus updates -- infections spread across the world
Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) observations

Coronavirus updates -- infections spread across the world

Medical staff with the coffin containing the body of Assunta Pastore, 87, who died at the Garden hotel in Laigueglia, north-west Italy, on Sunday. (AP)

Medical staff with the coffin containing the body of Assunta Pastore, 87, who died at the Garden hotel in Laigueglia, north-west Italy, on Sunday. (AP)

On Sunday, the United States, Australia and Thailand reported first deaths from coronavirus, while the Italy death toll rose to 34, and Dominican Republic reported its first case.

Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) observations

It's now the first week of March, and the shape of the coronavirus crisis is becoming clearer. I've read or listened to literally hundreds of reports, and these are my personal conclusions:

Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) shows no signs of stopping.

China claims that it's stopped in China, but no one knows what will happen when the draconian restrictions are lifted that are currently keeping tens of millions of people quarantined and isolated.

Many people are hoping that the warm summer weather will stop spread of the virus, but Singapore, which is on the equator and has warm summer weather, just had several new confirmed cases in the last couple of days. And even if the summer weather slowed the spread of the virus, history shows that it would return in full force in the fall.

Sooner or later, everyone in the world will be exposed to Covid-19. 80% of the cases will be mild. Another 10% will be serious, but curable. The other 10% will be extremely serious, and will lead to some deaths. Most of the deaths will occur among the elderly, or people with a history of smoking.

Infection does not provide protection from reinfection. Reinfected patients have a high death rate.

When someone dies of coronavirus, it usually means that there is a cluster of undiagnosed cases behind it.

Coronavirus is an economic disaster for China. China is overdue for a massive anti-government rebellion, the first since Mao's Communist Revolution civil war, and coronavirus could be the trigger.

Businesses will be looking for ways to repair their broken supply chains as quickly as possible, by seeking alternate suppliers.

Most companies will be at least partially back in business by summer, looking for ways -- robotics, working at home, hazmat suits, etc. -- to get things going again.

Each country will use containment as its first strategy -- tracking and testing travelers and others who might be infected, identifying others by means of contact tracing, and requiring those who fail the test to be isolated and quarantined in the homes or hotel rooms.

When the containment strategy fails, each country will move to a mitigation and risk reduction strategy -- close public gatherings, encourage or force large populations of people to stay at home, shut down all mass travel -- air, bus and train. In Japan, for example, a closely scrutinized decision will be about the Tokyo Olympics which, if canceled, would have devastating consequences for Japan's economy.

The objective of both the containment and mitigation strategies is to buy as much time as possible until a vaccine can be deployed.

Lots of companies are working on vaccines, and something may be available for test purposes in a few weeks. However, it will be at least a year before a vaccine can be widely deployed.

Wall Street stocks are in the biggest bubble in history, and the same is true of stock exchanges in many other countries. It is 100% certain that this bubble will burst at some point, leading to a global panic and financial crisis. It's possible that the Coronavirus crisis will be the trigger.

All in all, it will take about a year for the world to return to "normal," but that will be a "new normal," living side-by-side with Coronavirus. However, WW III and a global financial crisis are likely to begin within a year. By 2021, the world will be a very different place.

General advice from the experts: Wash your hands, cough into your sleeve, and don't touch your face.

Source:

Coronavirus latest updates (Guardian, 1-Mar-2020)

Related Article:

Planning for Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) (21-Feb-2020)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (2-Mar-2020) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Mar-2020 2-Mar-20 World View -- Coronavirus updates -- infections spread across the world

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Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) observations

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2-Mar-20 World View -- Coronavirus updates -- infections spread across the world