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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Jun-2020
13-Jun-20 World View -- China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh

Web Log - June, 2020

13-Jun-20 World View -- China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh

Significance of the Ladakh border confrontation

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh
Significance of the Ladakh border confrontation

China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh

Chinese soldiers mobilized to the northwest plateau near Ladakh in images shown on state television (SCMP, Weibo)

Chinese soldiers mobilized to the northwest plateau near Ladakh in images shown on state television (SCMP, Weibo)

China has occupied more than sixty square kilometres of Indian territory in eastern Ladakh, according to a senior Indian Army source.

China has mobilized thousands of paratroopers, armoured vehicles and equipment in a military drill on a plateau near Ladakh, the border region disputed by India and China. According to state media reports, they could be deployed "within hours" to the Ladakh region.

According to India's media, China's army has been carrying out manoeuvres to occupy Indian territory and build concrete defenses on it. China now has at least two group armies, three air force bases, and one rocket force base in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), with over 200,000 soldiers conducting combat training.

These steps signal a dramatic escalation in border tensions by China's military. In response, India has been reinforcing its forces on the India-China border.

So far, not a shot has been fired on either side, since that would amount to a declaration of full-scale war, but there have been clashes anyway. Seventy Indian troops were injured in fist-fighting and stone-throwing as they tried to stop the advance.

India must now prepare for a two-front war, with the Pakistan military on one side and China's army in the east. Pakistan and China have been doing combined combat training since 2011.

Indian army sources say that similar Chinese army troop movements are occurring in multiple locations in all three sectors -- western, middle and eastern -- of the 3,488-km boundary that India shares with China. While the current faceoff has been restricted to eastern Ladakh, which is in the western sector, armies on both sides have augmented their military strength even in the middle and eastern sectors.

Divisional commanders on both the Chinese and India side met on Wednesday to discuss moving troops back. Nothing was resolved, although negotiations are expected to continue in the near future.

The United Nations is calling for restraint. UN officials undoubtedly believe that a border war would be "unacceptable," and they would not hesitate to take firm action by calling a committee meeting or a press conference. Russia would blame the United States.

Significance of the Ladakh border confrontation

As I've written a number of times in the past, I do not expect WW III to begin with some major attack, such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or Japan or a missile attack on the United States. Those acts would come later. Major wars begin with small events. In a generational Crisis era, when public levels of nationalism and xenophobia are very high, a small event can be a match that lights an explosive fire.

World War II did not begin with the bombing of Pearl Harbor, nor did it begin with the invasion of Poland.

As I've described in the past, World War II began in 1937 with the Marco Polo Bridge incident. The Marco Polo Bridge is about 15 km south of Beijing in China, and was so named because Marco Polo praised the bridge in the 13th century. In 1937, both Japan and China were deep into generational Crisis eras, and the Japanese and Chinese people really hated each other. On July 7, a small group of Japanese soldiers, stationed near the bridge, took a roll call and found one soldier missing. The Japanese accused Chinese soldiers, also stationed near the bridge in the city of Wanping, of abducting the Japanese soldier. A brief clash was won by the Japanese. There were negotiations, and the situation was settled quickly. (The "abducted" soldier had merely gotten lost in the woods.)

So the two sides negotiated a settlement, but both sides then brought in reinforcements. Within a month there was full-scale war, leading to the Japanese "Rape of Nanking" shortly thereafter.

What's remarkable about the Ladach border situation is its similarity to the Marco Polo Bridge incident that triggered World War II. In particular, both the Indian and Chinese populations are in highly nationalistic and xenophobic moods, and this is the kind of mood that leads to a "shoot first, look later" situation. All it would take is one gunshot to trigger an escalation situation. And there are similar potential border confrontations all along the 3,488-km boundary that separates China from India.

This doesn't mean that the Ladakh border incident will lead to full scale war. In fact, confrontations like the one going on in Ladach are not uncommon, and they're settled quickly.

But this particular confrontation is raising international concern because positions on both sides appear to be hardening. China is occupying Indian land, and will not back off. In the border confrontation in May 2018, China did back off, possibly because the confrontation was taking place on Bhutan's Doklam Plateau, and Bhutan asked India to prevent a China takeover. It was speculated at the time that China backed off because China was not ready for a full-scale war with India, and wanted to wait until it WAS ready for a full-scale war.

What's remarkable about these border situations, alternating between negotiations and reinforcements, is their similarity to the incident that triggered World War II. With nationalism and xenophobia growing on both sides of this enormous border, with troop buildups at several locations along this border, it's quite possible that one of the India-China border confrontations will be the trigger that spirals into a major war.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/

Sources:

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Jun-2020 13-Jun-20 World View -- China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh

China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh

Significance of the Ladakh border confrontation

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Jun-2020
13-Jun-20 World View -- China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh