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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Jun-2020
19-Jun-20 World View -- Nationwide protests in India demand revenge against China

Web Log - June, 2020

19-Jun-20 World View -- Nationwide protests in India demand revenge against China

Brief list of Chinese Communist Party crises

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Nationwide protests in India demand revenge against China
What happened in Ladakh on Monday evening?
The core principle of Generational Dynamics
Brief list of Chinese Communist Party crises

Nationwide protests in India demand revenge against China

This is the kind of crude weapon, made with iron rods studded with nails, used by Chinese soldiers on Monday to kill Indian soldiers, according to India.

This is the kind of crude weapon, made with iron rods studded with nails, used by Chinese soldiers on Monday to kill Indian soldiers, according to India.

Anti-China protests have erupted in cities across India by people demanding retaliation for the killing of 20 Indian soldiers on Monday in the growing Ladakh border confrontation that we described last weekend. ( "13-Jun-20 World View -- China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh")

The protesters are burning the Chinese flag and calling for boycotts of China-made products.

However, the calls for revenge grew even louder on Thursday, when a photo emerged of a weapon used by Chinese soldiers to kill Indian soldiers. The weapon, pictured at the beginning of this article, is made with iron rods studded with nails, and is being called "barbarous" by some Indian officials.

Former leader of the opposition, Rahul Gandhi, also demanded fiercer retaliation from the government.

"It is now clear that China has committed an unforgivable war crime. The Chinese have used bayonets, nail studded iron rods, wooden clubs wrapped with barbed wire ... to mount a surprise attack on our unarmed soldiers."

Some MPs are demanding that Indian army forces invade the Chinese-controlled territory Aksai Chin, a disputed region on the Chinese side of the border. According to Jamyang Tsering Namgyal, the MP for the Ladakh region:

"We want a one-time solution. Not just the people of Ladakh but people of the country too want a one-time solution. After the sacrifice of our soldiers, I am starting to think the time has come to take Aksai Chin back."

What happened in Ladakh on Monday evening?

Several days have passed, but there's very little confirmed information about what took place.

Here's what we do know:

20 Indian soldiers were killed.
There's no information on the number of soldiers injured.
There's no statement on how the clashes started.
There's no statement on how the clashes escalated.
The Indian army says that China also suffered casualties, but China has not confirmed any casualties. According to some reports, about 40 Chinese soldiers were killed.
No guns were fired by either side. Both sides are honoring a decades-old agreement that everyone be unarmed. Firing a gun would be a declaration of war.
The Indian Army says that no soldiers were captured. However, early Friday morning there were reports that the Chinese released 10 captured Indian soldiers.

In the absence of statements by either the Indian or Chinese side giving details of what happened, unauthorized reports are beginning to appears, and they are highly explosive. Here's one from India's News18:

"Furious hand-to-hand fighting raged across the Galwan river valley for over eight hours on Monday night, as People’s Liberation Army assault teams armed with iron rods as well as batons wrapped in barbed wire hunted down and slaughtered troops of the 16 Bihar Regiment, a senior government official ... has told News18.
The savage combat, with few parallels in the history of modern armies, is confirmed to have claimed the lives of at least 23 Indian soldiers, including 16 Bihar’s commanding officer, Colonel Santosh Babu, many because of protracted exposure to sub-zero temperatures the Indian Army said late on Tuesday.
“Even unarmed men who fled into the hillsides were hunted down and killed,” one officer said. “The dead include men who jumped into the Galwan river in a desperate effort to escape.”
Government sources say at least another two dozen soldiers are battling life-threatening injuries, and over 110 have needed treatment. “The toll will likely go up,” a military officer with knowledge of the issue said."

In the absence of official statements, it's impossible to determine the veracity of this narrative, but it almost doesn't matter, because this situation is rapidly growing out of control.

The core principle of Generational Dynamics

Indian and Chinese officials claim that they're conducting ongoing negotiations to bring the crisis to an end and pull troops back on both sides.

In dozens of articles in the last few years, I've stated and restated the core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people.

We're seeing that applied in this case. According to reports, Chinese army teams hunted down, attacked and killed Indian soldiers, using barbarous weapons like the one shown at the beginning of this article. On the Indian side, we see increasing demands for retaliation and revenge.

Recall what happened in 1937 in the Marco Polo Bridge incident that I described in my article last weekend. The Japanese and Chinese negotiated a settlement, but both sides brought in reinforcements. Within a month, they were at full scale war, leading soon after to the Rape of Nanking.

That's not to say India and China will be at war within a month, but it does say that they're following a familiar pattern that leads to full-scale war. If both the Chinese and Indian armies are pulled back immediately, then a war can be avoided, but I see little desire on either side to do so, or to do anything but escalate.

It's worth noting that the India government has ordered the armed forces to make emergency procurements to stock up its war reserves in case of war in Ladakh. These preparations even include the deployment of navy military assets near the Malacca Strait, which would be a focal point for any future India-China war.

Brief list of Chinese Communist Party crises

The following is a reference list of the major crises currently being faced by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and dictator Xi Jinping:

Dozens of countries are blaming China for purposely spreading the Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) to other countries, so that China wouldn't have to deal with it alone. Attempts by China to blame the United States have backfired. This is a much bigger problem than you might think, since it attacks the competency of Xi Jinping.
And now, China is facing a major new outbreak of Covid-19 in Beijing, after having declared the city to be free of the virus.
North Korea's government appears to be increasingly chaotic, and an unstable North Korean government is a big problem for the CCP.
The India-China border crisis in Ladakh is growing.
Hong Kong pro-democracy protesters are starting up again, after being quiet because of Covid-19. The new proposed security bill is provoking unrest in Hong Kong, and a great deal of international concern.
Taiwan pro-independence activists are becoming emboldened by the situation in Hong Kong.
China is receiving increased international condemnation for the Uighur concentration camps in Xinjiang province.
One issue that's seldom talked about is that many African countries have huge debt obligations to the Chinese, thanks to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Debt Trap Diplomacy, and because of the Covid-19 crises, many countries are missing their debt payments. These countries are pressuring China to forgive or postpone much of the debt. Laughably, the Chinese are asking the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international organizations to bail out these African countries, so that they can make their payments to China.

So those who think that America and the West have a lot of problems are absolutely correct, but they do not have nearly as many problems as China, which has been turning into an international pariah.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (19-Jun-2020) Permanent Link
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