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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Jul-2020
8-Jul-20 World View -- Learning to live with Wuhan Coronavirus

Web Log - July, 2020

8-Jul-20 World View -- Learning to live with Wuhan Coronavirus

The Chinese Communist Party and Wuhan Coronavirus

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Learning to live with Wuhan Coronavirus
Should you wear a face mask?
The Chinese Communist Party and Wuhan Coronavirus

Learning to live with Wuhan Coronavirus

Cartoon from 2004: "BIRD FLU - The panic is spreading! -- Better safe than sorry!"

Cartoon from 2004: "BIRD FLU - The panic is spreading! -- Better safe than sorry!"

The following are some personal thoughts.

The administration is now saying that we have to learn to live with coronavirus.

The good news is that once you get sick from Wuhan Coronavirus, then doctors are a lot more able to treat you and possibly even cure you. Furthermore, there are many therapeutics being successfully developed for treating the illness. So the death rate for infected people has been coming down.

On the other hand, I haven't heard anyone credibly claim that a vaccine will be available until well into 2021, if then. And even if one becomes available, how will it be administered? Will the developing country (US, UK, China, etc.) restrict it to its own citizens until they're all protected? That will create huge international outrage, including violent riots. There are 330 million Americans. How long would it take to provide a vaccine to all of them? There are almost 8 billion people in the world. Same question.

In the US, there's been a big resurgence of infections in some southern states -- California, Arizona, Texas, Florida. One reason given for this is that there's been a kind of reversal from the north. In March, people stayed indoors in the north to stay warm, and went outside in the south. Today, people go outdoors in the north, but stay indoors in the south to get air conditioning. The reasoning is that the virus spreads most rapidly among a group of people indoors in an enclosed area, so it spread rapidly in the north in March, and in the south today.

It had been hoped (and expected) that the coronavirus would act like the seasonal flu and slow down (or stop) during the warm summer months. That seems to have been a false hope. The coronavirus seems much more virulent than the seasonal flu.

All the experts seem to expect a "second wave" in the fall, as happened in the fall 1918 with the Spanish Flu pandemic. Perhaps, by that time, some of these therapeutics will be successful enough so that most people can recover.

Every state and every country seems to be handling the pandemic in its own way, but it always seems to end the same way. Israel started out with a quick lockdown and strict controls, and thought that they had conquered it, but now there's a big resurgence again. The same is true in South Africa.

It's now winter in South America, and infections are growing exponentially in almost every country. In fact, infections are growing exponentially across Africa. That's going to cause a major political explosion.

Should you wear a face mask?

Confusion over face masks continues. In February, Dr. Anthony Fauci was saying that face masks were not necessary for anyone but medical workers. The explanation now given for that advice is because there were not enough face masks available for the general public, beyond medical workers.

Since then the advice has changed to make face masks optional or required, depending on the jurisdiction. Sometimes "social distancing" is enough so that you don't need a mask, according to some experts, but you always need a mask according to others. Also, do people have to be one meter apart or two meters apart for social distancing? It seems to vary.

Why do we wear face masks? "You wear a mask to protect me, and I wear a mask to protect you," goes the standard explanation. This means that if you're social distancing, then you don't have to worry about a mask. But in the last couple of days, that advice has been changing. It seems that the virus is spread not in large droplets that fall to the ground quickly (as had been previously stated), but rather in a fine mist that stays in the air for a long time. That means that if you don't want to be infected, then you always have to wear a face mask, and you have to inhale through your mask, even if you're socially distancing.

If you get the virus and you survive, can you get it again? The experts say they don't know. Apparently you have immunity for a few weeks or months, but we don't have experience to judge whether the immunity lasts longer than that. So if you've had the virus already, you might get it again in the fall.

So only about 3% of the world's population have become infected so far, according to one estimate, including those that show no symptoms. That means that 97% of the world still has no immunity at all.

It's pretty random. Anyone could get infected just by touching the wrong thing or breathing the wrong air or being at the wrong place at the wrong time. Which means that, sooner or later, perhaps 5 billion, 6 billion or 7 billion more people have yet to be infected. I'm one of those who believe that, sooner or later, everyone will be infected.

Personally, I know that I'm in multiple risk groups -- old, overweight, high blood pressure -- so if I live long enough to get infected, I won't live much longer after that. Young people, the experts say, are far more likely to survive, though lately there have been statistics challenging that claim. However, experience in other countries shows that children in school are almost completely safe.

The Chinese Communist Party and Wuhan Coronavirus

As regular readers know, I follow the news about China constantly, and I've written a book, "War Between China and Japan" which describes how China is preparing to launch a war of revenge against Japan, a war of annexation against Taiwan, and a war with America because we will be defending Japan and Taiwan.

It's been increasingly clear since Xi Jinping came to power that China is becoming more and more belligerent and hostile every day. With regard to the situation in Hong Kong, it's been clear (again) that China feels free to violate any international law, but still demands that everyone else obey international law. The Chinese Communist Party considers themselves to be the Master Race, and everyone else to be barbarians and vassals, and the only purpose of international law is to provide a means for the Chinese to control the barbarians.

This has been really clear in the last few days as the CCP has imposed a harsh National Security law on Hong Kong, completely ignoring international law and their own commitment in the 1984 handover agreement with the UK. The same is true of their arrest, torture and enslavement of millions of Uighurs, and their illegal annexation of the South China Sea. The CCP attitude is that they're superior to everyone else, and not bound even by their own commitments.

The CCP thugs don't have a strategy. They are increasingly paranoid and desperate, and lash out in all directions at once. They're absolutely furious that they're being blamed (correctly) for having unleashed the Wuhan Coronavirus on the world, lied about it, purposely spread it to hundreds of countries, and purposely purchased all available PPE (face masks, gowns, goggles, etc.) around the world so that those materials wouldn't be available to anyone but the Chinese. The CCP have managed to piss off almost every country in the world, even countries that are forced to support them.

On Tuesday, FBI director Christopher Wray gave a press conference on the enormous threat to the United States from the Chinese Communist Party:

"The greatest long-term threat to our nation’s information and intellectual property, and to our economic vitality, is the counterintelligence and economic espionage threat from China. It’s a threat to our economic security—and by extension, to our national security.
And at this very moment, China is working to compromise American health care organizations, pharmaceutical companies, and academic institutions conducting essential COVID-19 research."

As Wray suggests, the CCP are desperate to be the first to develop therapeutics and a vaccine for Wuhan Coronavirus to use as leverage against America and the West. He says that the Chinese want to "compromise American ... institutions conducting essential COVID-19 research." He doesn't say whether the Chinese simply want to steal the intellectual property, or to hack into company services and somehow destroy them - probably both.

Meanwhile, the hostility towards China has grown substantially in the last year in the West. The mutual xenophobia between China and Western nations grows almost every day. This will not end well.

Sources:

The Threat Posed by the Chinese Government and the Chinese Communist Party to the Economic and National Security of the United States (FBI, 7-Jul-2020)

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (8-Jul-2020) Permanent Link
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