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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Jul-2020
26-Jul-20 World View -- Kremlin shocked by large anti-government protests in Russia's Far East

Web Log - July, 2020

26-Jul-20 World View -- Kremlin shocked by large anti-government protests in Russia's Far East

China's strategy continues to suffer geopolitical reverses

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Kremlin shocked by large anti-government protests in Russia's Far East
History of Khabarovsk and Vladivostok
China's strategy continues to suffer geopolitical reverses

Kremlin shocked by large anti-government protests in Russia's Far East

Map showing Khabarovsk and Vladivostok in Russia's Far East

Map showing Khabarovsk and Vladivostok in Russia's Far East

Russia's government in Moscow has been caught by surprise by large anti-government protests in Khabarovsk, eight time zones away in Russia's Far East.

Protests have been growing for several weeks, and on Saturday, tens of thousands of people in Khabarovsk took part in protest marches. Protests have also spread to other cities. They were protesting the arrest, on July 9, of Sergei Furgal, the democratically elected governor, who was "kidnapped" back to Moscow, over 6,000 km away. Furgal was arrested on charges that he was involved in three murders in the early 2000s. The protesters were demanding that if Furgal was going to be tried, then the trial must take place in Khabarovsk, not 6,000 km away in Moscow.

Furgal was unexpectedly elected governor of the Khabarovsk Region in September 2018, beating the candidate who had been hand-picked by Vladimir Putin. Furgal has remained a popular figure ever since, and in 2019, his Liberal Democratic party won a landslide victory. After Furgal's arrest, and before any trial, Furgal was fired as governor, and Putin replaced him with a federal politician Mikhail Degtyaryov as acting governor to the region. Degtyaryov is from the same party as Furgal, but presumably he will do as he's told by Putin.

Theoretically, Russia is a functioning democracy, but as a practical matter, the candidates selected by Putin always win, and are expected to do as they're told when in office. Furgal did not do as he was told, and his removal and replacement by Putin is seen not only as a necessary step to bring the Khabarovsk Region under control, but also as a warning to any other governor who might be thinking of straying from the official line.

Nonetheless, the size of the anti-government protests has been a shock to the Kremlin, with an estimated 30,000 protesters marching to the Khabarovsk capital building on Saturday.

At the march, demonstrators chanted slogans like "Disgrace!", "Fair trial in Khabarovsk!", “As long as we are united, we are invincible!” and “Freedom for Furgal!” Many demanded President Putin resign because local people had lost trust in him.

The new governor, Degtyaryov, has already offended people by refusing to meet with local citizens, saying that he won't meet with those who come "yelling under my windows."

Putin has always responded harshly to protests, but this one caught him by surprise. If the protests continue, we can expect violence by the security forces in the coming weeks.

History of Khabarovsk and Vladivostok

Khabarovsk is the capital city and largest city of the Khabarovsk Krai (administrative region), with a population of 600,000, including thousands of Chinese migrants that have crossed over the Amur River from China.

Many Chinese claim that Khabarovsk really belongs to China. They point to Hong Kong, which became a British colony in 1842 because of the Opium Wars and what the Chinese call an "unfair treaty." Hong Kong was handed back to China in 1997. Many in Chinese social media claim that Khabarovsk became part of Russia because of another "unfair treaty," the May 1858 Treaty of Aigun between Russia and China that settled the boundary between the two countries, when China was weakened by the Taiping Rebellion. The Chinese are claiming that Russia should hand Khabarovsk back to China, just as Hong Kong was handed back to China. However, the region demanded by China also contains Vladivostok, which is the location of Russia's Pacific military fleet, so there is little chance that Russia would agree to any such thing without a major war. Still, China and Russia fought a border war in the 1960s, so there may be a new war at some point.

However, it won't be soon. Russia and China currently have a "marriage of convenience," where they pretend to love each other. They need each other's support because they're both criminal outlaws, with China illegally annexing the South China Sea and Russia illegally annexing eastern Ukraine and Crimea.

China's strategy continues to suffer geopolitical reverses

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) itself has been suffering numerous serious reverses lately. The Trump administration's closing of China's Houston consulate is a major blow to the Chinese military's espionage program. China is receiving worldwide condemnation for many of its policies that were previously ignored, or even supported by the credulous Western mainstream press -- purposely seeding hundreds of countries with the Wuhan Coronavirus, causing worldwide economic devastation, arresting, torturing and enslaving millions of Muslim Uighurs, imposing dictatorial policies on Hong Kong through its new security law.

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is running into problems because China's infrastructure agreements with numerous countries, especially in Africa, imposed huge debt requirements, thanks to China's "debt trap diplomacy," and now because the Wuhan Coronavirus has shut down many economies, many countries can no longer make the debt repayments.

What many people don't realize is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has no strategy. They're planning to annex part of India, annex part of Vietnam, annex Russia's Far East, launch a war of revenge against Japan, and annex Taiwan. But what's the strategy? Even if China wins all those wars (and it will probably lose all of them), then those gains will disappear within two generations.

At the end of World War II, the Soviet Union had won control of numerous countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. By 1991, Russia had lost control of all of those countries. The same would happen with China. So what's China strategy after it wins all those wars? If there is one, I'm not aware of it.

The CCP thugs today are paranoid and desperate, and highly emotional. What do we do now? Attack Taiwan? Attack India? Sign up another BRI country? They don't know what to do next, so they might do anything. Sooner or later that will lead to war.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Jul-2020 26-Jul-20 World View -- Kremlin shocked by large anti-government protests in Russia's Far East

Kremlin shocked by large anti-government protests in Russia's Far East

History of Khabarovsk and Vladivostok

China's strategy continues to suffer geopolitical reverses

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Jul-2020
26-Jul-20 World View -- Kremlin shocked by large anti-government protests in Russia's Far East