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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Aug-2020
14-Aug-20 World View -- Mideast leaders split on Israel-UAE 'historic' peace agreement

Web Log - August, 2020

14-Aug-20 World View -- Mideast leaders split on Israel-UAE 'historic' peace agreement

Palestinians infuriated by UAE-Israel peace agreement

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Mideast leaders split on Israel-UAE 'historic' peace agreement
Palestinians infuriated by UAE-Israel peace agreement
Text of the UAE-Israel peace agreement

Mideast leaders split on Israel-UAE 'historic' peace agreement

Egypt-Israel peace agreement handshake, on September 6, 1978, at Camp David. Left to right: Egypt's president Anwar Sadat, US president Jimmy Carter, Israel's prime minister Menachem Begin (CNN)

Egypt-Israel peace agreement handshake, on September 6, 1978, at Camp David. Left to right: Egypt's president Anwar Sadat, US president Jimmy Carter, Israel's prime minister Menachem Begin (CNN)

US President Donald Trump has mediated a peace agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) being described as "historic," since the agreement will lead to normalization of diplomatic relations between the two countries, for the first time. They will exchange embassies and ambassadors, and cooperate in numerous areas, including commerce, trade, security, anti-terrorism, and health.

Historically, this is the third agreement between Israel and an Arab country since Israel was created in 1948. In 1979, Egypt and Israel signed a peace agreement between the two countries, and in 1994, Jordan signed a peace agreement with Israel. Thus, the UAE becomes the third country to take this step.

According to Trump, both Israel and UAE were anxious to reach this agreement, because Israel and UAE are united in their opposition to Iran. Trump said that the agreement only became possible because the Trump administration backed out of the Iran nuclear deal, and because Trump then developed personal relations of friendship with several Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia.

A significant part of the new agreement is that Israel will suspend plans to annex a portion of the West Bank occupied by Israeli settlers. These plans to annex a portion of the West Bank have been extremely controversial since they were announced several months ago. This has infuriated Jewish settler organizations. David Elhayani, head of the Yesha Council of settlers, said: "He deceived us. He has deceived half a million residents of the area and hundreds of thousands of voters."

Trump is claiming that this agreement is an important step on the path to Mideast peace. This is political fantasy. The Palestinians are not part of this deal, and they will not be in favor of it.

Another country that won't be happy will be Qatar. Qatar is still under an air, sea and ground blockade by Sunni Arabia and UAE. The blockade began in 2016, and attempts at mediation by Trump have failed. However, the US has a large military naval base in Qatar, so that relationship is important.

Palestinians infuriated by UAE-Israel peace agreement

As long-time readers know, the first Generational Dynamics analysis that I posted was on May 1, 2003, when I predicted that President George Bush's "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" peace plan would fail, because the Jews and the Palestinians would be re-fighting the bloody 1948 war the followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Since then, there have been several smaller Mideast wars, with but there has been no sign of an acceptable peace agreement. Indeed, I have said any number of times that the so-called "two-state solution" is impossible.

So it's not surprising that Palestian leadership is denouncing this agreement, and accusing the UAE of betrayal of the Palestinians, and even of "stabbing them in the back." Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas's senior adviser said, "The Palestinian leadership rejects and denounces the UAE, Israeli and US trilateral, surprising, announcement."

A former deputy foreign minister of Iran tweeted:

"UAE's new approach for normalizing ties w/fake, criminal #Israel doesn't maintain peace & security, but serves ongoing Zionists' crimes. Abu Dhabi behavior has no justification, turning back on the Palestine cause. W/ that strategic mistake, #UAE will be engulfed in Zionism fire.
— H.amirabdollahian (@Amirabdolahian) August 13, 2020"

Other Mideast leaders reacted as expected.

Jordan, Egypt, Bahrain and European countries endorsed the agreement with varying levels of enthusiasm. At the very least, individual spokesmen hoped that it would advance the "peace process." Saudi Arabia has not commented on the agreement, but it's thought that the UAE would not have taken this step without the Saudi's tacit approval.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.

Text of the UAE-Israel peace agreement

The following is the text of the agreement announced on Thursday:

"Joint Statement of the United States, the State of Israel, and the United Arab Emirates
President Donald J. Trump, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, and Sheilch Mohammed Bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the United Arab Emirates spoke today and agreed to the full normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.
This historic diplomatic breakthrough will advance peace in the Middle East region and is a testament to the bold diplomacy and vision of the three leaders and the courage of the United Arab Emirates and Israel to chart a new path that will unlock the great potential in the region. All three countries face many common challenges and will mutually benefit from today's historic achievement.
Delegations from Israel and the United Arab Emirates will meet in the coming weeks to sign bilateral agreements regarding investment, tourism, direct flights, security, telecommunications, technology, energy, healthcare, culture, the environment, the establishment of reciprocal embassies, and other areas of mutual benefit. Opening direct ties between two of the Middle East's most dynamic societies and advanced economies will transform the region by spurring economic growth, enhancing technological innovation, and forging closer people-to-people relations.
As a result of this diplomatic breakthrough and at the request of President Trump with the support of the United Arab Emirates, Israel will suspend declaring sovereignty over areas outlined in the President's Vision for Peace and focus its efforts now on expanding ties with other countries in the Arab and Muslim world. The United States, Israel and the United Arab Emirates are confident that additional diplomatic breakthroughs with other nations are possible, and will work together to achieve this goal.
The United Arab Emirates and Israel will immediately expand and accelerate cooperation regarding the treatment of and the development of a vaccine for the coronavirus. Working together, these efforts will help save Muslim, Jewish, and Christian lives throughout the region.
This normalization of relations and peaceful diplomacy will bring together two of America's most reliable and capable regional partners. Israel and the United Arab Emirates will join with the United States to launch a Strategic Agenda for the Middle East to expand diplomatic, trade, and security cooperation. Along with the United States, Israel and the United Arab Emirates share a similar outlook regarding the threats and opportunities in the region, as well as a shared conimilment to promoting stability through diplomatic engagement, increased economic integration, and closer security coordination. Today's agreement will lead to better lives for the peoples of the United Arab Emirates, Israel, and the region.
The United States and Israel recall with gratitude the appearance of the United Arab Emirates at the White House reception held on January 28, 2020, at which President Trump presented his Vision for Peace, and express their appreciation for United Arab Emirates' related supportive statements. The parties will continue their efforts in this regard to achieve a just, comprehensive and enduring resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As set forth in the Vision for Peace, all Muslims who come in peace may visit and pray at the Al Aqsa Mosque, and Jerusalem's other holy sites should remain open for peaceful worshippers of all fifths.
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Crown Prince Sheilch Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan express their deep appreciation to President Trump for his dedication to peace in the region and to the pragmatic and unique approach he has taken to achieve it."

Sources:

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (14-Aug-2020) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Aug-2020 14-Aug-20 World View -- Mideast leaders split on Israel-UAE 'historic' peace agreement

Mideast leaders split on Israel-UAE 'historic' peace agreement

Palestinians infuriated by UAE-Israel peace agreement

Text of the UAE-Israel peace agreement

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Aug-2020
14-Aug-20 World View -- Mideast leaders split on Israel-UAE 'historic' peace agreement