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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Sep-2020
6-Sep-20 World View -- India scores tactical victory in Ladakh border conflict, causing fury in China

Web Log - September, 2020

6-Sep-20 World View -- India scores tactical victory in Ladakh border conflict, causing fury in China

Comments by Chinese analysts in the media

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

India scores tactical victory in Ladakh border conflict, causing fury in China
Comments by Chinese analysts in the media

India scores tactical victory in Ladakh border conflict, causing fury in China

Chinese cartoon blaming China-India conflict on incitement by the US (Global Times)

Chinese cartoon blaming China-India conflict on incitement by the US (Global Times)

Readers may recall that in June hostilities broke out between Chinese and Indian troops in Ladakh's Galwan Valley, along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the unmarked boundary between the two countries. On June 15, Chinese forces ambushed Indian forces in Ladakh's Galwan Valley, using barbaric weapons consisting of bayonets, poles studded with steel nails, and wooden clubs wrapped with barbed wire, killing 20 unarmed Indian soldiers. ( "25-Jun-20 World View -- Both India and China reinforce armies in Ladakh, as China makes new claim")

Now, almost three months later, there are still many unanswered questions about what happened on June 15, since neither side has issued a statement providing a full narrative. The Indians have said that 20 Indian soldiers were killed, but the Chinese have not even revealed how many Chinese soldiers were killed, leading to some speculation. Various reports indicate that 40-45 Chinese soldiers were killed, even though the Chinese were armed and the Indians were unarmed. Furthermore, according to some unconfirmed reports, the reason that the Chinese needed weapons and lost anyway is because Indian soldiers are taller and stronger than the Chinese soldiers, and so India soldiers defeat Chinese soldiers in hand to hand combat. If any of this is true, then it would be huge embarrassment for the Chinese military to admit it, and could lead to popular unrest and a desire for revenge in China, and so they won't even admit how many soldiers were killed.

The Chinese and Indian military have been having peace talks, most recently at the ministerial level on Friday on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) defense ministers’ meeting, with the meeting lasting over two hours. The peace talks have not gone well, and they belie what's actually happening on the ground.

What's happening on the ground is that Indians apparently scored a major tactical victory two days ago. Both China and India have been building up troops. But India last week executed a stealth night-time operation to claim strategic outposts. Thousands of soldiers climbed up mountain peaks for about six hours during the night to claim the vantage points along the south bank of Pangong Tso, a glacial lake under dispute. According to the Indians, this tactical move gives them the high ground and a clear view of enemy troop movements in disputed territory.

According to Chinese state media: "India bears full responsibility for the current China-India border tensions and China's military is fully determined, capable and confident to safeguard China's sovereignty and territorial integrity."

Hu Zhiyong, a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, expects the Indians to have to give up without a fight:

"By the end of September, winter will have arrived in the Ladakh region where temperatures could fall to minus 25 degrees, and India has deployed about 40,000 troops in the region. This is far beyond its logistics capability, and if the tension remained unresolved, the Indian military could see non-combat casualties."

The conflict has spilled over into the economic area. India has limited Chinese investments, is tightening scrutiny on vasas, is blocking Huawei Technologies Co. out of 5G networks, and is banning numerous Chinese mobile phone apps.

Some analysts are calling the current India-China relations in Ladakh the most dangerous in decades. Both sides are massing troops, and if it's really true that the Indian troops cannot tolerate the low winter temperatures, then they'll have to either strike or retreat. The winter months may bring a turning point.

Comments by Chinese analysts in the media

The Chinese communists have not admitted either their plans or intentions in their mass military buildup in Ladakh. However, Antara Ghosal Singh, a Chinese strategy expert at the Delhi Policy Group, has done an analysis of commentary by the Chinese strategic community on the situation. They all blame the Indians for the hostilities, and give various reasons for they think that the Indians are doing this. The following are some of the main points:

The Indians want leverage in future negotiations over the South China Sea.

India is signalling that if a conflict occurs on the border, then it may resort to retaliation against China at sea by targeting China's oil and gas transport vessels, "thereby, urging the Chinese government to take proper countermeasures to deal with the disturbances at the sea."

India is working at the behest of the United States, particularly since there may be a US-China military showdown before the US elections.

More specifically, India and the Americans have reached a behind-the-scenes deal that the latter will build up pressure on China's eastern and southern fronts, India will activate the western front, so as to force China to take action under unfavorable terms, forced to fight on both sides.

Since the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic began, "India has decided to stand with the United States in the great power competition."

Many in China are fuming over India's tactical victory, and for its "audacity" to wave a Tibetan "Snow Mountan Lion Flag" at the confrontation site, the video of which went viral in the Chinese social media. Chinese social media space has been buzzing with calls for an "appropriate counterattack."

Sources:

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (6-Sep-2020) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Sep-2020 6-Sep-20 World View -- India scores tactical victory in Ladakh border conflict, causing fury in China

India scores tactical victory in Ladakh border conflict, causing fury in China

Comments by Chinese analysts in the media

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Sep-2020
6-Sep-20 World View -- India scores tactical victory in Ladakh border conflict, causing fury in China