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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Sep-2020
12-Sep-20 World View -- New 'historic' Israel-Bahrain peace agreement generates controversy

Web Log - September, 2020

12-Sep-20 World View -- New 'historic' Israel-Bahrain peace agreement generates controversy

Mideast peace continues to be a fantasy objective

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

New 'historic' Israel-Bahrain peace agreement generates controversy
Mideast peace continues to be a fantasy objective

New 'historic' Israel-Bahrain peace agreement generates controversy

Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas was not included in Friday's peace agreement (Reuters)

Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas was not included in Friday's peace agreement (Reuters)

US President Donald Trump has mediated another peace agreement, this time between Israel and Bahrain, following the peace agreement one month ago between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Once again, the agreement is being described as "historic."

Bahrain will participate in what will now be a three-way signing ceremony at the White House Tuesday with Israel and the United Arab Emirates. Trump explained the peace agreements happened because "Even great warriors get tired of fighting, and they’re tired of fighting." He suggested that this was just the next step on the road to peace deal for the entire Mideast. He said that other countries are considering signing peace agreements as well. He didn't name countries, but Morocco, Kuwait and Oman are considered possible candidates.

Those are all small kingdoms. It's not expected that Saudi Arabia would join the countries normalizing relations with Israel, even though Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) might consider doing so, since his father King Salman is opposed to any such recognition until the Palestinian issue is settled. However, it's believed that UAE and Bahrain normalized relations with Israel with the approval of MBS. MBS has supported the agreements by permitting Israeli planes to fly over Saudi air space for the first time.

Historically, this is the fourth peace agreement between Israel and an Arab country since Israel was created in 1948. In 1979, Egypt and Israel signed a peace agreement between the two countries, in 1994, Jordan signed a peace agreement with Israel, and a month ago, UAE signed a peace agreement. Thus Bahrain is the fourth country to take this step.

Mideast peace continues to be a fantasy objective

Long-time readers know that I've reported on and mocked numerous proposed peace agreements. Every president has a plan for Mideast peace based on a "two-state solution" -- Israel and Palestine, side-by-side in peace. Just think about that. On what planet could Israel and Palestine exist side-by-side in peace?

On May 1, 2003, I posted an article predicting that President George Bush's "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" peace plan would fail, because the Jews and the Palestinians would be re-fighting the bloody 1948 war the followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. (Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (1-May-2003)) The most recent was President Trump's "Deal of the Century" ( Trump announces fantasy 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan (29-Jan-2020)).

When you're trying to do a Generational Dynamics analysis of a situation, you have to analyze what the people want, not what the leaders want. Bahrain and UAE are countries far away from Israel, and people probably couldn't care less whether a peace deal is agreed or not. Generally speaking, they're more concerned about Iran than Israel.

But the Palestinian people of course do care. So the Palestinian Authority leaders on Friday strongly condemned Bahrain's decision as a "betrayal of Jerusalem, Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Palestinian issue." They said:

"[The Bahraini decision would] support the legalization of the cruel crimes of the Israeli occupation against our Palestinian people at a time when the occupation state is continuing to control the Palestinian lands and annex them by military force, is working toward Judaizing Jerusalem and controlling the Islamic and Christian holy sites and is committing crimes against the Palestinian people."

So now suppose that the Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, who is 84 years old, decided to sign a meaningful peace agreement with Israel. He would either be shot dead by his own advisers, or else beaten to death by Palestinian mobs. Remember that the average age in the West Bank and Gaza is about 20 years old, and 20 year old children will not care about a peace agreement that an 84 year old fossil signs.

So the point is that these "historic" agreements are just pieces of paper, signed by aging leaders, with no relevance to the vast majority of the population. The peace treaties are nice, but it's the young people in that majority that are going to determine what happens, and Generational Dynamics predicts that it will be war.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (12-Sep-2020) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Sep-2020 12-Sep-20 World View -- New 'historic' Israel-Bahrain peace agreement generates controversy

New 'historic' Israel-Bahrain peace agreement generates controversy

Mideast peace continues to be a fantasy objective

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Sep-2020
12-Sep-20 World View -- New 'historic' Israel-Bahrain peace agreement generates controversy