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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Oct-2020

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11-Oct-20 World View -- Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan

11-Oct-20 World View -- Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan's objectives

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan
• Azerbaijan's objectives

Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Topographical map of the Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh (Al-Jazeera)

A temporary truce between Armenia and Azerbaijan was mostly successful on Saturday, although each side accused the other of violating the ceasefire.

The ceasefire was mediated by Russia, which applied heavy pressure to both sides to accept the agreement. It's being described as a humanitarian ceasefire, to permit the two sides to exchange prisoners, and for the Red Cross to remove dead bodies. Also, it will give both sides time to reload and resupply their weapons in preparation for the next round of fighting.

The two countries are fighting over control of the Nagorno-Karabakh ("highland Karabakh") province and seven adjacent regions within Azerbaijan territory that are populated and governed by Armenians. The two countries used to be member states of the Soviet Union, which collapsed in 1991. A major war was fought between the two countries, and it ended in stalemate in 1994, under pressure from Russia.

There have been occasional outbursts of fighting since then, but the fighting that began on September 27 of this year is the worst so far since 1994.

Armenia says that its objective is that Nagorno-Karabakh should be recognized internationally as an independent state, Artsakh. That isn't going to happen.

Azerbaijan's objectives

Azerbaijan says that its objective is to gain full control of the enclave, as it is Azerbaijan territory. According to a number of tv analysts, Azerbaijan officials feel that this objective is within its grasp. Several of the areas adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh have already been captured by the Azeri army.

In 1994, when Russia mediated a ceasefire, Armenia was much more militarily powerful than Azerbaijan, and was able to take over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the situations are reversed today, and Azerbaijan is more powerful militarily, according to these analysts. Furthermore, the international community is supportive of Azerbaijan since Nagorno-Karabakh is officially Azeri territory.

Turkey is supporting its Turkic brother Azerbaijan, and has promised to provide military aid if necessary. Furthermore, Turkey has little concern about good relations with Armenia, having been accused of genocide against the Armenian people in 1915.

Russia is close to its Eastern Orthodox Christian sister Armenia, and has a military base in Armenia, but wants to maintain good relations with both countries. Russia is applying maximum pressure to both sides to keep the ceasefire going, but it seems unlikely that the ceasefire will continue much longer.

One analyst suggested that there's "horse-trading" going on. For example, Russia may convince Armenia to give up Nagorno-Karabakh in return for Turkey pulling its forces out of Syria. That's an interesting idea -- then the Azeris could massacre the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh in revenge for the massacre of Azeris by Armenians in the 1990s, and Syria's president Bashar al-Assad could continue with its genocide and ethnic cleansing of Sunni Arabs in Syria's Idlib province. That would be an explosive development, so I do not believe that this particular version of "horse-trading" is likely. (Paragraph corrected, 11-Oct)

Meanwhile, there are other things going on in the world. I'm working every spare minute to finish up my book on Vietnam. Kyrgyzstan's government has collapsed, and people are rioting, because of alleged election fraud. China is stepping up warplane flights threatening Taiwan, is demanding that US ships stop entering international waters in the South China Sea illegally claimed by China, and is arresting anyone in Hong Kong who dares to criticize Beijing. The United States is locked into an election campaign circus, and Americans are generally completely oblivious to anything going on in the world. And many countries are trying to avoid more lockdowns, as cases of Wuhan Coronavirus have been surging in many countries, especially in Europe. And that's the way it is.

Sources:

• Nagorno-Karabakh: Armenia and Azerbaijan shaky ceasefire in force (BBC, 10-Oct-2020)
• Armenia, Azerbaijan accuse each other of violating ceasefire (Al-Jazeera, 10-Oct-2020)
• Fresh Azerbaijani shelling shatters peace after fragile ceasefire agreed (Guardian, London, 10-Oct-2020)
• Live Updates: Two Blasts Heard in Nagorno-Karabakh Capital Despite Ceasefire Agreement (Sputnik News, Moscow, 10-Oct-2020)
• Armenia, Azerbaijan Trade Accusations Over Karabakh Ceasefire (Moscow Times, 10-Oct-2020)

Related Articles:

• Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh (28-Sep-2020)
• Military clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh (17-Jul-2020)
• Concerns grow that Azerbaijan plans Armenia invasion from Nakhchivan enclave (11-Jul-2018)
• Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region (03-Apr-2016)
• Azerbaijan becomes the hub of the Caspian Trade Corridor, part of the new Silk Road (21-Jan-2016)
• Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency (07-Dec-2015)
• Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (11-Oct-2020) Permanent Link
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