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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Apr-2021
2-Apr-21 World View -- Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion

Web Log - April, 2021

2-Apr-21 World View -- Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion

Russia fires back at reports of a potential invasion of Ukraine

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion
Russia fires back at reports of a potential invasion of Ukraine

Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion

A trainload of tanks in southwestern Russia headed in the direction of the border with Ukraine earlier this week

A trainload of tanks in southwestern Russia headed in the direction of the border with Ukraine earlier this week

The US armed forces European Command has raised its threat watch assessement to its highest level -- "potential imminent crisis" -- because of growing reports of trains loaded with large amounts of Russian military hardware, including aircraft, tanks and other heavy armored vehicles, as well as heavy artillery and ground troops, headed toward the border with Ukraine.

In 2014, Russia troops invaded Ukraine in support of Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. The purpose was to break off the entire eastern portion of Ukraine and annex it to the Russian Federation.

That didn't happen, but Russia also invaded Ukraine's Crimea peninsula and annexed it and made it part of the Russian federation. It's been assumed that Russia has wanted to complete the job of annexing eastern Ukraine, and there are concerns the Russians plan to do exactly that right now.

Russia may have decided to strike now because of the new Biden administration in Washington. Last Thursday press conference by Biden was undoubtedly analyzed closely by the Kremlin, and it was clear that Biden has no idea what's going on. In addition, the world can see that the Biden administration has completely lost control of its southern border. The Kremlin analysts may have decided that it would take a long time for the Biden administration to do anything, if the Biden administration did anything, and that therefore they can invade Ukraine with impunity. (See "28-Mar-21 World View -- North Korea's ballistic missiles stoke the Denuclearization Delusion".)

Russia fires back at reports of a potential invasion of Ukraine

Russia's mealy-mouthed spokesman Dmitry Peskov issued a statement saying that there's nothing to see here:

"Russian Federation is moving its troops within its territory, at its own discretion. Nobody should be concerned about it. It poses no threat to anyone."

At this point, it's worthwhile to make a list of previous Russian lies related to the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine:

Russia always denied that there were Russian army troops in Ukraine, and when it was proven there were, the Russians claimed that they were just "volunteers." That also turned out to be disinformation, as 80% of Russia's army is a volunteer army. America has an all-volunteer army. So saying that Russian troops in Ukraine are "volunteers" is like saying that America's troops in Afghanistan are "volunteers."

Russia lied about invading east Ukraine when it had Russian troops in east Ukraine.

In July 2014, the Russians in eastern Ukraine shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 passenger plane with a Russian Buk 9M38 missile that was transported by a Volvo truck from Russia, as was confirmed in 2015 by a Dutch report following a lengthy investigation. Russia made one moronic claim after another, everything from the claim that MH17 fell out of the sky by itself to a claim that the US shot down MH17 to embarrass Putin.

Russia lied about invading Crimea, and then invaded Crimea.

Putin said Russia had no intention of annexing Crimea, but then annexed Crimea a few days later and gave medals to the military officers who had invaded Crimea. Later, in a televised interview, Putin bragged that he had ordered the invasion and annexation of Crimea weeks before it occurred, and then lied about it.

According to US estimates, Russia has about 32,700 military personnel in Crimea, some 28,000 personnel in "separatist" units in areas of eastern Ukraine known collectively as the Donbass who have been fighting the government in Kiev since 2015.

A member of the Generational Dynamics forum, Navigator, an expert on military history, says:

"You do not move this kind of stuff [tanks and armored vehicles] around unless you mean to use it. Russia wants the traditional Ukraine back. This is up to the line of Odessa/Vinnetsa. They will probably allow Ukraine to remain in what was once the Austro-Hungarian province of Galicia, centered around the city of Lvov. Given Europe's current state, plus a weak US administration, they know they will be able to get away with this.
My bet is that Putin will go all in after Ukraine. After that he will take a breather to get ready for the Baltics. Going after the Baltics will require a NATO response. But my guess is that they will appear so weak due to an almost non-existent response to the Ukrainian campaign that the threat of this will not dissuade him. He could also have intel that the Chinese will be going after Taiwan at the same time he will be prepared to go into the Baltics. This is my guess."

So now more Russian troops ("volunteers?") are headed for the border with Ukraine, and Peskov says, "Nobody should be concerned about it."

However, the Pentagon is concerned about it, as evidenced by the rise in the threat watch assessement to its highest level -- "potential imminent crisis."

According to Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby: "We obviously don’t want to see any more violations of Ukrainian territory. We’ve been very clear about the threats that we see from Russia across domains ... we’re taking them very seriously."

Sources:

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (2-Apr-2021) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Apr-2021 2-Apr-21 World View -- Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion

Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion

Russia fires back at reports of a potential invasion of Ukraine

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Apr-2021
2-Apr-21 World View -- Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion