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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-May-2021
11-May-21 World View -- Violence escalates between Israelis and Palestinians in Jerusalem and Gaza

Web Log - May, 2021

11-May-21 World View -- Violence escalates between Israelis and Palestinians in Jerusalem and Gaza

Israeli police storm Al-Aqsa Mosque after violent Palestinian protests

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Hamas fires dozens of rockets at Jerusalem in response to clashes
Israeli police storm Al-Aqsa Mosque after violent Palestinian protests

Hamas fires dozens of rockets at Jerusalem in response to clashes

Violence in Jerusalem on May 6 (Reuters)

Violence in Jerusalem on May 6 (Reuters)

The war between Hamas militants in Gaza and Israeli's military was renewed on Monday, when militants fired dozes of rockets into Israel, and Israel's military responded with missile strikes, killing 20 people in Gaza, including nine children, according to Gaza officials.

This was the worst such violence that has occurred in year, since the 2014 summer war. Hamas militants have fired rockets into southern Israel at intervals for years, but this was a major escalation because the rockets targeted Jerusalem. Explosions could be heard in Jerusalem, and one of the rockets damaged a home on the outskirts of Jerusalem. Israel struck many of the rockets down, using their "Iron Dome" anti-missile system, and others exploded harmlessly in open areas.

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the rocket attacks had "crossed a red line":

"Israel will respond very forcefully. We will not tolerate attacks on our territory, our capital, our citizens and our soldiers. Whoever strikes us will pay a heavy price."

Hamas launched the rocket attacks after a 6 pm deadline passed for an ultimatum that demanded that Israeli police withdraw from the Al-Aqsa mosque in East Jerusalem. Hamas also demanded the release of all detained Palestinians, and the removal of Jewish settlers from an East Jerusalem neighbourhood.

Hamas said that Israel was waging a "religious war against Palestinian worshipers" in Jerusalem.

"What is happening in the Al-Aqsa Mosque at the time of storming and assaulting worshipers is proof of the brutality of the Zionist occupation.
[Israel is responsible for its] incursion into the Al-Aqsa Mosque. The occupation will pay a heavy price."

So both sides are promising "a heavy price."

Terminology:

Neutral: West Bank, Jerusalem, East Jerusalem
Pro-Palestinian: Occupied West Bank, Occupied East Jerusalem, Al-Aqsa Mosque Compound
Pro-Israeli: Judea and Samaria, Temple Mount Compound.

Israeli police storm Al-Aqsa Mosque after violent Palestinian protests

Map of holy sites in Jerusalem's Old City (BBC)

Map of holy sites in Jerusalem's Old City (BBC)

Hamas militias set the 6 pm deadline and launched the rockets as a reaction to a situation of escalating violence is occurring for weeks in Jerusalem. Typically, these situations worsen for a while, then begin to settle down and fizzle. But we know that one day one of these situations will escalate into a full war, but we don't know which one. So far, this situation is triggering a larger war, to include Hamas.

The epicenter of violence in the last few weeks is the Al-Aqsa mosque compound, which is Islam's third-holiest site, behind Mecca and Medina. It is also a major holy site for Jews, who refer to it as the Temple Mount. So it's not surprising that it's a major flash point for Palestinian worshippers and Israeli nationalists.

On Monday, Palestinians hurled rocks, other heavy objects and firecrackers at Israeli policemen. Israeli police stormed the mosque, firing stun grenades and rubber bullets inside the mosque. Hundreds of Palestinians were wounded, and dozens were hospitalized.

This kind of violence has been going on daily since the start of Ramadan on April 13. This is the worst violence in years between Israeli police and Palestinians in East Jerusalem. In April, Israeli police blocked off access to a part of the Old City, giving Covid restrictions as the reason. Then a TikTok video went viral apparently showing an Israeli being abused by an Arab. That's when right-wing extremist Jewish settlers held a large demonstration, chanting "Death to Arabs." Palestinians heard about this, and a crowd responded by throwing firecrackers and setting garbage bins on fire. (See 24-Apr-2021 World View: Violence grows between Palestinians and far-right Jews in East Jerusalem)

Clashese between Palestinians and settlers have occurred almost daily since then. The violence has spiked in recent days as Jewish settlers are asking the Israeli courts to evict Palestinians from their homes, so that the Israeli settlers can take their place. The settlers claim that the land occupied by the Palestinian homes belonged to their Jewish ancestors prior to the 1948 creation of Israel.

These are the last days of Ramadan but, more significantly, Monday is Israel's "Jerusalem Day," which celebrates Israel's capture of East Jerusalem during the 1967 Middle East war.

Israel's government took two steps to try to defuse the violence. First, a court hearing scheduled for Monday was postponed a month. The court hearing would have finalized the decision to evict Palestinians from homes. These threatened evictions would have severely escalated the clashes between Palestinians and settlers.

The other step was to cancel a scheduled march by Israeli right-wing nationalists and settlers, in celebration of Jerusalem Day. The parade would have marched through the Muslim Quarter of Jerusalem's Old City, which the Palestinians said would be highly provocative. These two steps reduced some of the violence, although they've apparently infuriated the Israeli nationalists. Nationalist Israelis demonstrated against the moves.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the Israelis and Palestinians will be re-fighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. However, this new situation so far shows signs that it's more likely to fizzle, rather than expand into a larger regional war. The US State Department is pressuring Israel to back off, and the United Nations, Egypt and Qatar are mediating between Israel and Hamas to halt the fighting.

However, the violence is expected to continue for at least several weeks and months. The court hearing to evict Palestinians from their homes has not been canceled, but has been postponed for a month, so we can't expect the clashes between Palestinians and Israelis around the Al-Aqsa Mosque to end for at least that period of time. That will lead to more demands by the Hamas militants for at least that period of time. Perhaps the worst that will happen will be like the 2014 summer war between Hamas and Israel that last 67 days.

Sources:

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (11-May-2021) Permanent Link
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Hamas fires dozens of rockets at Jerusalem in response to clashes

Israeli police storm Al-Aqsa Mosque after violent Palestinian protests

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