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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jul-2021
24-Jul-21 World View -- China and Japan significantly escalate military tensions over Taiwan

Web Log - July, 2021

24-Jul-21 World View -- China and Japan significantly escalate military tensions over Taiwan

Japan says 'F--k you China, bring it on'

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

China and Japan significantly escalate military tensions over Taiwan
China's military threatens the 'Japan Exception Theory'
Chinese warplanes practice blokading Taiwan
Japan says 'F--k you China, bring it on'
Nuclear weapons in Japan
International love affairs and hatreds

China and Japan significantly escalate military tensions over Taiwan

Japan's Ministry of Defense removes Taiwan from China in map (Taiwan News)

Japan's Ministry of Defense removes Taiwan from China in map (Taiwan News)

The mutual hatred that the people of China and Japan feel for each other has always been bubbling below the surface, but in the last month or so, it has become far more public and open at the military and government levels.

The flash point is Taiwan. China has repeatedly declared the intention to invade Taiwan and annex it to China. Japan has said that China's annexation of Taiwan would be a security risk to Japan, and so Japan will join with Taiwan in a war with China. I discussed all of this in my article last month. ( "28-Jun-21 World View -- Japan's plans for defending Taiwan from an attack by China")

What's changed in the last month is that each side, China and Japan, has published something that indicates a harsh "fuck you" attitude toward the other side. In years past, Japan and China pretended to be nice to each other, but those days apparently are ending.

China's military threatens the 'Japan Exception Theory'

On July 12, the Chinese Communist military uploaded a video to a Chinese Military channel, "Military strategies." The video was taken down after two days, after it had been re-posted, with English subtitles, by Chinese-born human rights activist and author Jennifer Zeng.

Here are some of the main points of the Chinese military video as described by Jennifer Zeng:

If Japan tries to defend Taiwan by deploying even one soldier, one plane, or one ship, then China will attack Japan with full force.

China will adopt a "Japan Exception" policy with regard to use of nuclear weapons. China once promised that it wouldn’t use nuclear weapons first, or use it against non-nuclear countries. It's not surprising that China is abandoning this promise, since China lies about everything. So now Japan can be an exception.

China will attack Japan with nuclear weapons not just once, but repeatedly, and "continuously," until Japan declares unconditional surrender "for the second time."

The psychological argument is that because Japan is the only country in the world to have suffered a nuclear attack, unleashing nuclear weapons upon Japan "will yield twice the result with half the effort."

After victory, China will break up Japan's four main islands into independent countries under the "supervision" of China and Russia, which will both establish military garrisons there. Okinawa will be broken off from Japan and either be managed by China or made into an independent country.

There's so much of the above that's entirely delusional that it's hard to know what to start. The most obvious is that the continuous nuclear bombing will not cause Japan to declare unconditional surrender "for the second time." The Japanese will be infuriated and will fight to the last bullet.

The video implies the following Chinese delusional military strategy: The Chinese strategy would be a quick victory in Taiwan combined with a nuclear victory over Japan, to be executed before the United States could respond. When the dust cleared, there would be a new reality, with Taiwan part of China, and Japan colonized/controlled by China.

This is entirely delusional, but being delusional has never stopped the Chinese Communists till now.

There is a never-ending debate whether nuclear weapons will be used in the next war. But Jennifer Zeng's article explains why China MUST use nuclear weapons at the beginning of the war. In conventional warfare, Taiwan+Japan could defeat the Chinese. The Chinese know this, and the Japanese know this. That's why the Chinese are developing the "Japan Exception Theory," which means that Japan is the exception to the "promise" that China will not be the first to use nuclear weapons. Japan does not currently have nuclear weapons, so there will presumably be no danger of nuclear retaliation from Japan.

Chinese warplanes practice blokading Taiwan

The Japan Exception Theory is just words, but China has also done a lot militarily in the last few weeks to increase its preparation for war with Taiwan.

The Chinese Communists have sent warplanes into Taiwan's airspace dozens of times in 2020, and hundreds of times so far in 2021. The media describes this as "sending a message," but how long will the increasingly nationalist Chinese public be satisfied with just "sending a message"?

In March, the Chinese military showed an aggressive new tactic: planning for a blockade. Ten Chinese warplanes invaded Taiwanese airspace to the island's south and west, while another two Chinese planes cut through its southern airspace to skirt Taiwan's eastern airspace. A Taiwanese official said that the move was designed to practice cutting Taiwan off from Japanese and American intervention if China carries through on its threats to invade Taiwan.

It's not known what a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would look like, and it's not clear that China has the capability to successfully invade Taiwan.

However a full blockade of Taiwan could be a much simpler strategy. The idea is that if Taiwan were cut off from the world, it could quickly run out of both military and non-military necessities, but once it did it would be forced to surrender. Once again, that's entirely delusional, but a blockade could be part of a larger strategy to weaken and isolate Taiwan first, in preparation for the actual invasion.

Once again, you have to step back here and look at the larger picture. What the hell is going on here? China has been "sending messages" for years, decades even. Now we have the Chinese military talking about a Japanese exception to allow a nuclear attack, and Chinese warplanes practicing for a blockade to prevent Japan or the US from defending Taiwan. We also know that the Chinese Communists have explicitly warned that they would invade Taiwan, and those warnings have become increasingly shrill.

As I've written many times, a war could start at any time, and it wouldn't even require an affirmative decision to do so. World War I was started by a twelve year old boy who decided to assassinate a Serbian archduke. World War II was started by a Japanese garrison near Beijing when a Japanese soldier needed to pee and got lost in the woods. The Japanese accused the Chinese of abducting the soldier, and they were at full-scale war within a month, with the Rape of Nanking occurring two months later.

Japan says 'F--k you China, bring it on'

Look closely at the pair of maps at the beginning of this article. They are the "Defense of Japan" white papers published, respectively, in 2020 and 2021. Both of these are maps of China, with the red arrow pointing to the island of Taiwan.

In 2020, Taiwan was shown in red, indicating that Taiwan is part of China. In 2021, Taiwan is shown in grey, meaning that Taiwan is NOT part of China.

I'm referring to this as a "Fuck you China, bring it on" message. There are no words that could be more insulting and more infuriating to the Chinese Communists than what is essentially a declaration by Japan's Ministry of Defense (MOD) that Taiwan is an independent country.

In the context of the current increasing belligerent actions by the Chinese, and their declaration of the "Japan Exception Theory," Japan is saying that they're not intimidated.

The "Defense of Japan" white paper, this year for the first time, makes clear that Japan is concerned about a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan:

"Stabilizing the situation surrounding Taiwan is important for Japan’s security and the stability of the international community. Therefore, it is necessary that we pay close attention to the situation with a sense of crisis more than ever before."

What is significant about this statement is that Taiwan was never even mentioned in previous white papers.

Nuclear weapons in Japan

Japan adopted a pacifist constitution after World War II, and later signed the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which bans it from developing nuclear weapons, more than 40 years ago.

However, Japan has been able to build nuclear weapons since it launched a plutonium breeader reactor and uranium enrichment plant in the 1980s. Since then, Japan has pursued a nuclear fuel recycling program that separates plutonium from the waste from its nuclear power plants.

Today, Japan has 45.5 tons of separated plutonium — 8.9 tons at home, and 36.6 tons in Britain and France. The amount is enough to make about 6,000 atomic bombs. And Japan continues to produce more plutonium.

Analysts estimate that it would require about six months for Japan to develop an atomic weapon.

In fact, I would speculate further. I could well believe that the Japanese have manufactured the nuclear weapons, perhaps with technical help from the Americans or the Indians, but haven't yet inserted the plutonium. That way, they can claim that they still have no nuclear weapons, but they might be able to complete the manufacture within a few days, when the time comes.

I don't have any evidence of that. I'm just saying that it wouldn't surprise me.

International love affairs and hatreds

Americans fought and won a war with the Nazis, and now, 75 years later, Americans like the Germans, are friends with the Germans, and Germany is an ally.

Americans fought and won a war with the Imperial Japanese, and now, 75 years later, Americans like the Japanese, are friends with the Japanese, and Japan is a very important ally.

Americans fought and won a war in support of the Chinese, and saved the Chinese from the Japanese. Since then, Americans always loved the Chinese, although attitudes changed with the Tiananmen Square massacre, the torture and enslavement of two million Muslim Uighurs, the smashing of democracy in Hong Kong, and the repeated threats and obvious plans to wage war to annex Taiwan.

Americans like the Chinese people, and have no desire for a war with them, but Americans are increasingly scared to death by hateful belligerence of the Chinese Communist Party. The Chinese people like the American people, and have no desire for a war with them, but the Chinese Communists have decided that there must be a war because the United States military will defend Taiwan and Japan from a Chinese invasion.

The Chinese and the Japanese fought a war with each other, and now, 75 years later, each side has a deep, vitriolic hatred of the other. The Japanese performed unspeakable atrocities on the Chinese during World War II. The Chinese are craving revenge like nothing else. Given the chance, they will inflict the same kinds of enormous atrocities on the Japanese, and they'll be satisfied with nothing less than the destruction of the Japanese culture.

That's why the last actions by Japan's Ministry of Defense are interesting, which is why I describe them as "F--k you China, bring it on." There are no signs that the Japanese fear a war with the Chinese. It's possible that they fear war with China less than we do. The Japanese have a very powerful conventional armed forces, and they may have nuclear weapons, and they may believe that they can defeat the Chinese, in alliance with Taiwan. So I get the feeling that the Japanese would like another go at China, and are looking forward to it.

It's ironic that the crucible of the war between China and Japan will likely be an invasion of little old Taiwan. Taiwan was a colony of Japan in the early 1900s, and apparently consider that relationship to have been good enough for Taiwan to be on the side of Japan in fighting their common enemy, China.

But what about Korea? Which side will they be on?

Throughout Korea's history, they were either a colony of Japan or a vassal state of China. I'm not sure which is worse. So which side would Korea choose to fight against -- Japan or Korea? I get the feeling that they would rather be like Switzerland, and try to stay neutral as long as possible.

But of course it's much more complicated than that, because Korea isn't Korea any more. Korea is now South Korea, apparently aligned with the United States, and North Korea, apparently aligned with China. Each Korea wants the country to be reunited, but under its own government. So it seems likely that there will be a war between North and South Korea, while Japan is fighting China.

So what will happen to all those nuclear weapons that the North Koreans have been manufacturing? With they be launched toward America, toward Japan, toward China or toward South Korea? That's a very interesting question, and I think that the answer is far from obvious.

So I really don't know what the Koreans will do. Perhaps some of the Koreans who read my articles could write to me and enlighten me, or post their opinions anonymously in the Generational Dynamics forum.

There are people in the Generational Dynamics forum who criticize me for making imperfect predictions. "What good are your forecasts, Xenakis, if you can't tell the date when the war will break out?"

That's funny. All I can tell you today, with 100% certainty, is that China and Japan are headed for a full-scale war over Taiwan. I can't give you an exact date, but I can tell you that China is rapidly making preparations, Japan is rapidly making preparations, and Taiwan is rapidly making preparations. But I can keep track of events and hope for clarity.

China-Japan Book

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (24-Jul-2021) Permanent Link
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