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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Nov-2021
2-Nov-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma civil war gathers steam as ASEAN watches

Web Log - November, 2021

2-Nov-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma civil war gathers steam as ASEAN watches

Myanmar's ethnic rebel militias fight junta's 'clearance operations'

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Myanmar's ethnic rebel militias fight junta's 'clearance operations'
ASEAN takes on increased regional role after snubbing Myanmar

Myanmar's ethnic rebel militias fight junta's 'clearance operations'

ASEAN meeting on zoom, with Myanmar disinvited (The Irrawaddy)

ASEAN meeting on zoom, with Myanmar disinvited (The Irrawaddy)

When Myanmar's Buddhist army conducted genocidal "clearance operations" against the Muslim Rohingyas in southern Myanmar in 2016-2018, they met little resistance. In fact, the Rohingyas were like sheep being led to slaughter. The Buddhists burned down entire villages, tortured, beat and killed males, raped females, and shot down civilians who tried to flee. Except for an occasional terrorist act, the Rohingyas did nothing to fight back, but instead fled across the border into Bangladesh, where hundreds of thousands of them still live in refugee camps.

As we described two weeks ago, the Myanmar junta has been massing troops in northwest Myanmar in Chin State, and has been talking about "clearance operations." Analysts at the United Nations see this as a sign that the junta is planning to do the same thing to the Chin people as they did to the Rohingyas. (See "24-Oct-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter")

The junta military, known as the Tatmadaw, have already begun "clearance operations" in earnest. Over the weekend, the military shelled a town in Chin State and burned down more than 160 buildings, including businesses and churches. The humanitarian aid agency Save the Children said its offices were in one of the buildings that was “deliberately set ablaze.”

So they're repeating what they did to the Rohingyas in the past. Another thing they're repeating is to claim that the villagers set the fires and burned down their own homes and villages. Nobody was stupid enough to believe their claim that the Rohingyas burned down their own villages, and nobody is stupid enough to believe those claims now.

However, we're seeing a big difference between the Rohingyas versus the Chin and other anti-junta rebels. While the Rohingyas simply fled or died like sheep, the anti-junta rebels are fighting back.

According to one report, the Tatmadaw in June attacked the town of Pale in northwest Myanmar with the usual tactics, where soldiers looted homes, raped women and set a village on fire. But instead of simply fleeing, the villagers formed a militia of some 2,000 fighters, mostly farmers, and counterattacked, killing 400 troops, according to their claims, which are probably exaggerated.

However, the point is that since the junta took power on February 1 in a coup, some 250 rebel groups have emerged, ranging from small urban underground cells to militias comprising thousands, according to reports. These rebels have not previously fought in wars, but their grandparents did, in the bloody Burma crisis civil war from 1948 to 1958. It's this historical memory that makes these rebels willing to fight, where the Rohingyas were not.

As I've explained in the past, Myanmar entered a new generational Crisis era in 2016, 58 years after the end of the last crisis war. (See "24-Jun-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma army fights new militia in Mandalay as civil war spreads")

Since 2016, the Tatmadaw have become increasingly violent and belligerent within their own country. They committed genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas, and now they're turning to other ethnic groups within Myanmar. This will not end quickly. This is turning into a repeat of the ten-year Burmese crisis civil war that ran between 1948-1958, and involved multiple ethnic groups. History is now repeating itself.

ASEAN takes on increased regional role after snubbing Myanmar

ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Nations) has ten members: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, and they've always followed a strict policy of not criticizing the government of any of the others, even when the member governments committed atrocities.

ASEAN held three days of summit meetings last week at which the biggest news was that Myanmar's military junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, was not invited to participate. This was a shocking move by the organization, which has previously made a point of not criticizing the internal actions of its member states.

ASEAN members felt the need to take a stand in order to maintain relevance as a regional organization. There are several developments that seemed to make ASEAN increasingly marginalized.

In 2012, ASEAN failed to issue a joint statement -- for the first time ever -- over disagreements on how to deal with China's claims to the disputed South China Sea. At that time, ASEAN's rotating chairmanship was held by Cambodia, whose leader is Hun Sen, who is a close ally of China. With Cambodia's help, China attempted to get ASEAN to endorse, or at least not object to, China's claims, but the Philippines objected, and so ASEAN took no position at all. ASEAN received a great deal of international criticism for failing to take a stand on China's illegal claims. (See "21-Nov-12 World View -- China is forced to back down diplomatically at an ASEAN meeting")

More recently, ASEAN's role as a regional power bloc has been challenged by other alliances led by the United States. One is the so-called Quad, a bloc formed by Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, to counter the influence of China. The most recent is the ANKUS agreement (Australia, UK, and US), where the US and UK will help Australia build a nuclear-powered submarine fleet. (This has triggered a major international diplomatic disagreement, since Australia had previously agreed to purchase diesel-powered submarines from France, and the ANKUS agreement was formed without notifying France.)

Few people doubt that Myanmar is headed for a major civil war, with the danger that it will spill over into its neighbors, especially Thailand, India and China. As the civil war overwhelms the region, it remains to be seen whether ASEAN can be relevant.

Sources:

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (2-Nov-2021) Permanent Link
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Myanmar's ethnic rebel militias fight junta's 'clearance operations'

ASEAN takes on increased regional role after snubbing Myanmar

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