	Generational Dynamics
	Modern Generational Theory

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY STUDIES \| COMMENT \| FORUM \|
\| DOWNLOADS \| FOURTH TURNING ARCHIVE \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Nov-2021
8-Nov-21 World View -- Pro- and Anti-Iran violence grows in Iraq as PM survives assassination attempt

Web Log - November, 2021

8-Nov-21 World View -- Pro- and Anti-Iran violence grows in Iraq as PM survives assassination attempt

Consequences of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88)

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Iraq's PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi escapes assassination from drone attacks
Consequences of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88)
Growing anti-Iran riots
Muqtada al-Sadr and the Sadrists

Iraq's PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi escapes assassination from drone attacks

Riots in Baghdad on Friday

Riots in Baghdad on Friday

Iraq's prime minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi escaped an assassination attempt early Sunday morning, when three explosives-laden drones attacked his residence. The army shot down two of the drones, but a third reached its target and exploded, wounding six guards. Al-Kadhimi was unharmed. The residence is in Baghdad's heavily fortified "Green Zone."

The drone attack follows widespread riots and protests on Friday, where Iran-backed militias were protesting the results of the October 10 parliamentary elections. The Iran-backed Fatah Alliance won only 17 seats, down from 48 seats in the previous parliament.

Because of the Iran-backed protests, many people assume that the drone attacks were engineered by the pro-Iran militias, especially because Iran has used drone attacks to attack American bases along the border with Syria. However, the militias deny responsibility, and claim that the drone attacks were staged. So nobody has claimed responsibility for the failed drone attacks.

Consequences of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88)

Iraq had two generational crisis wars during the last century, the 1920 Iraqi Revolution and the 1980s Iran-Iraq war. In both of those wars, the Iraqi Sunnis and Shias united behind the war effort against the enemy -- the British colonists in 1920 and the Iranians in the 1980s. The Iran-Iraq war (1980-88) was one of the longest and bloodiest wars of the 20th century. Chemical weapons and large-scale missile attacks were used. There were millions of casualties and refugees in both countries. ("Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (1-Apr-2007)")

Today, Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, so there is no chance of a renewal of the Iran-Iraq war. But the horrors of the war are still well-remembered, and it's still the objective of Iran to obtain political control of Iraq. Not surprisingly, these attempts have triggered anti-Iran protests in Iraq.

Iran gained a great deal of popular support in Iraq in 2016-2018, when Iran trained and funded Shia militias called the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMFs), which played a major role in expelling ISIS from the country. So it was during the 2018 parliamentary elections that the Iran-backed Fatah Alliance gained 48 seats.

Growing anti-Iran riots

However, there were already widespread anti-Iran riots in September 2018 in Basra, which is in southern Iraq, adjacent to Iran. Protesters attacked or set fire to Iran-linked buildings and the Iranian consulate. They also attacked almost every office belonging to the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces. (See "9-Sep-18 World View -- Riots in Iraq's Basra evoke fault lines of 1980s Iran-Iraq war")

In October 2019, there were widespread anti-Iran political protests, this time in Baghdad, with protesters calling for political reforms, and end to corruption, and an end to sectarian system of government that guarantees government control to groups depending on religious sect. There was also a call to end foreign intervention, with a particular focus on Iran.

So by the time of last month's parliamentary elections, the pro-Iranian militias had lost almost all of the good will they had gained from fighting ISIS, and the pro-Iranian Fatah political alliance lost two-thirds of the seats it had previously held.

So the protests on Friday were quite different from the protests in October 2019. The latter protests had been led by students who were protesting corruption and Iranian influence. Friday's protests led by Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) militias, claiming that last month's parliamentary elections were rigged.

Muqtada al-Sadr and the Sadrists

The biggest winner in last month's parliamentary elections appears to be the Sadrists, the political party of Muqtada al-Sadr, who got 73 seats. Those with a long memory will recall that al-Sadr is a highly respected Shia cleric who opposed American intervention in Iraq during the 2000s. Today he strongly opposes all foreign intervention, including intervention by the US, Iran and Turkey.

With or without the drone attack, there's a feeling that Friday's violent protests represent a turning point in Iraq. According to one analyst, Muqtada al-Sadr had been using the time since the October 10 election to negotiate with other political groups in order to form a governing coalition, and Friday's violent protests have forced those negotiations to end.

There is a growing conflict between the Sunnis and the Sadrists on one side, and the pro-Iranian Fatah alliance on the other side. In the meantime, the Iranians are attempting to pressure the Iraqi government to demand with the withdrawal of American forces, just as the Americans had to withdraw from Afghanistan. This conflict will continue during the next few months, but it seems unlikely that America will be forced to withdraw from Iraq, as long as the Americans are seen as a countervailing force to Iran, especially in view of the disastrous results of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Sources:

Related Articles:

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (8-Nov-2021) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages