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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Nov-2021
9-Nov-21 World View -- Crisis grows on Poland-Belarus border over weaponized migrants

Web Log - November, 2021

9-Nov-21 World View -- Crisis grows on Poland-Belarus border over weaponized migrants

Lukashenko's revenge following Ryanair plane forced landing

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Crisis grows on Poland-Belarus border over weaponized migrants
Lukashenko's revenge following Ryanair plane forced landing
Tensions grow on the border as Polish and Belarus forces face off

Crisis grows on Poland-Belarus border over weaponized migrants

Hundreds of migrants are trapped in a Belarus forest along the border with Poland (AFP)

Hundreds of migrants are trapped in a Belarus forest along the border with Poland (AFP)

There is a growing possibility of military clashes across the border between Poland and Belarus, as Belarus attempts to push thousands of migrants into Poland. The policy is in revenge for sanctions imposed after Belarus illegally forced a passenger plan to land, in order to jail a reporter on the flight.

Hundreds of migrants from the Middle East, Africa and Asia are trapped in Belarus on the border with Poland, with thousands more migrants on the way to the border. Poland has installed a barbed-wire border fence to prevent the migrants from crossing, but the migrants are using wire cutters and shovels, supplied by the Belarus military, to cut the wire or dig up the fence.

The Belarus military is standing behind the migrants, shooting their guns into the air, threatening any migrants who attempt to turn back from the border. Poland's military is standing on the other side of the barbed-wire fence, blocking any attempts by the migrants to cut the barbed wire and cross into Poland.

Poland has deployed more than 12,000 soldiers to the border and a volunteer Territorial Defense force was put on alert, according to Poland's defense ministry.

The European Union is describing the Belarus policy as "weaponizing migrants." Belarus has extended this policy from Poland to Lithuania and Latvia.

Lukashenko's revenge following Ryanair plane forced landing

The reason that these thousands of migrants are in Belarus is because they were solicited on the orders of dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Belarus has been soliciting migrants from the Middle East, Africa and Asia to travel to Belarus, and has provided free air travel for them to do so. The migrants are promised an opportunity to cross the border into Poland or Germany.

The current crisis began on May 23, when a Ryanair passenger plane with 126 passengers crossing Belarus air space was ordered by Belarus air traffic controllers to land in the Belarus capital city Minsk, supposedly because of a "potential security threat on board." The demand was backed up by a Belarus fighter jet.

When the plane landed in Minsk, Belarus security forces boarded the plane and arrested a Belarus journalist, Raman Pratasevich, and his girlfriend Sofia Sapega. Pratasevich had been a vocal critic of Lukashenko, including accusations of rigged elections. After his arrest, Pratasevich was paraded in staged events.

In June, the EU, US and UK imposed coordinated sanctions on Belarus. The EU has banned flights from Balavia and other Belarus airlines from its airports and airspace. The EU is also planning to sanction airlines that are cooperating with Belarus in flying migrants from the Mideast and Africa to Belarus.

Already, Poland's defense ministry has thanked Iraq for having Belarus close its consulates in Baghdad and Irbil that were giving tourist visas to migrants.

These sanctions have infuriated Lukashenko. He has retaliated and taken revenge by launching his program of weaponizing migrants -- transporting them from the Middle Ease and Africa, and then trying to push them into Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Tensions grow on the border as Polish and Belarus forces face off

Video from the border is showing a tense military standoff. Polish border guards have used teargas to push back people who tried to cut through the barbed wire. Gunshots were thought to come from Belarus border guards, shot in the air to frighten migrants and prevent them from moving away from the border.

Hundreds of migrants have set up a tent city on the Belarus side of the border in a forested area, where they are essentially trapped.

As more thousands of migrants are headed to the same area, it seems certain that there will be some kind of military confrontation on the border. There is the possibility that lives will be lost, or that a gunfight will break out between the border guards on the two sides. And with Russia supporting Belarus, it's possible that a clash could spread.

Sources:

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (9-Nov-2021) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Nov-2021 9-Nov-21 World View -- Crisis grows on Poland-Belarus border over weaponized migrants

Crisis grows on Poland-Belarus border over weaponized migrants

Lukashenko's revenge following Ryanair plane forced landing

Tensions grow on the border as Polish and Belarus forces face off

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Nov-2021
9-Nov-21 World View -- Crisis grows on Poland-Belarus border over weaponized migrants