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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Jan-2022
19-Jan-22 World View -- Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones

Web Log - January, 2022

19-Jan-22 World View -- Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones

Iran's support for the Houthis

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones
Iran's support for the Houthis
The purpose of the Houthi attack on the UAE

Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones

Site of Saudi-led air strike in Sanaa on 18-Jan (Reuters)

Site of Saudi-led air strike in Sanaa on 18-Jan (Reuters)

The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen on Monday evening attacked targets in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), including airports in Dubai and in an oil refinery in Musaffah, as well as "a number of important and sensitive Emirati sites and facilities," with five missiles and a number of drones. Three people were killed.

Early on Tuesday, warplanes from Saudi Arabia, UAE's coalition partner, attacked Houthi camps and strongholds in Sanaa, Yemen's capital city, including he home of a high-ranking Houthi military official, including his wife and son. About 20 people were killed, according to the Houthis.

The Yemen war began in 2015, when Houthi rebels from northwest Yemen took control of the capital city Sanaa, and seized the international airport. In response, warplanes from a mostly Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia bombed Houthi rebel targets.

The war escalated substantially in November 2017, when the Houthis launched a ballistic missile, undoubtedly supplied by Iran, that reached the King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about 800 km from the Yemen border. The Saudis reacted with its own escalation, a blockade of all of Yemen's land, sea and air ports.

The Houthis increased their missile attacks on Saudi cities, and then in June 2018, Saudi Arabia and UAE launched a 'catastrophic' assault on the highly strategic Port Hodeidah in Yemen. The objective was to cut off supplies of Iranian weapons to the Houthis, as well as a source of income.

The battle over Port Hodeidah continued for years, until November 2021, when the Houthis scored a complete takeover of the port, marking an important turning point in the war. Tuesday's Houthi attack on the UAE targets with drones and missiles marks another turning point.

Iran's support for the Houthis

Since the Yemen war began in 2015, it's been seen as largely a proxy war between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia. In the wars between Sunnis and Shias the following the death of the prophet Mohammed, one Shia sect was known as the Saydis or "fivers," because of their allegiance to the fifth Imam descendant. Most Shias, including the Persians, had allegiance to the twelth Imam descendant, and so they are sometimes called "twelvers." The Zaydis have become today's Houthis. Despite this theological dispute, the fivers and the twelvers identify with each other as not-Sunni Shias, and so the Iranians are supporting the Houthis in Yemen in a proxy war against the Arab Sunnis. (See my book "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy," for the history of Islam and the Sunni-Shia split.)

Iran is denying that they've had anything to do with Tuesday's attack by the Houthis on the UAE. However, this claim has little credibility since the Houthis have no ability to develop and manufacture the drones and missiles that were used in the attack.

It seems likely that the Houthis' recent takeover of Port Hodeidah has enabled the Houthi attack, because Iran can use the port to smuggle drones and missiles and other weapons to the Houthis. Two weeks ago, a UN group announced that it would be investigating whether the port has been militarized

According to Hans Grundberg, the UN envoy to Yemen:

"The accusations of the militarization of the ports of Hodeidah are worrying and the threats of attacking them are equally disturbing given that these ports are a lifeline for many Yemenis. [The UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement was] closely monitoring the situation in the ports and has requested as part of its mandate to undertake an inspection."

Well, we can hardly wait until the UN report comes out. These UN committees always produce useful results, don't they.

The purpose of the Houthi attack on the UAE

What is the purpose of the Houthi attack on UAE targets? Here are some possibilities:

The Houthis are drunk on their success with the takeover of the Hodeidah Port, and they may think that with Iran's backing they can defeat the Saudis and Emiratis, just as the Japanese thought they could defeat the Americans in 1941.

Iran has been holding "peace talks" separately with Saudi Arabia and UAE, and the Houthis may wish to sabotage those talks.

Iran may wish to send a message that it wants America and the West to end the sanctions on Iran.

Each one of these objectives is likely to backfire.

Houthi Yemeni military expert Brigadier-General Abdul Ghani Al-Zubaidi was interviewd on Monday by Russia Today TV, and said the following:

"We sent a message [with the Abu Dhabi drone strike], and the UAE should take this message seriously. The UAE is not like Saudi Arabia, which is bigger in size, and which can perhaps, take the hit and absorb the shock. The UAE is a country made of cardboard and glass. ...
The second thing is that we hope to receive Iranian weapons, and to have Iranian experts with us. [Our enemies] have Zionist experts, as well as American and French experts, They have gathered all of the world's vagabonds in their command center and in the battlefield. ...
We have the power, the will, and the determination to strike in the UAE and in Saudi Arabia. If it turns out that the Americans attacked in Yemen, or if they declare that they did, we will target the American interests wherever they may be. Wherever they may be!"

Right now, there's a bit of a lull, as both the UAE and the Houthis decide what to do next. If this is as much of a turning point as it seems, then we should see some additional military reactions soon.

As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018 Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00 Complete Table of Contents
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (19-Jan-2022) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Jan-2022 19-Jan-22 World View -- Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones

Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones

Iran's support for the Houthis

The purpose of the Houthi attack on the UAE

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Jan-2022
19-Jan-22 World View -- Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones