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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Apr-2022
10-Apr-22 World View -- Ukraine war causes chaos in Asia -- Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Philippines

Web Log - April, 2022

10-Apr-22 World View -- Ukraine war causes chaos in Asia -- Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Philippines

Ukraine war causes global food and fuel prices to spike

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Ukraine war causes global food and fuel prices to spike
Anti-government protests raging across Sri Lanka
Pakistan constitutional crisis puts the government in chaos
Philippines facing new election as Duterte sucks up to China

Ukraine war causes global food and fuel prices to spike

Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan ousted by no-confidence vote on Saturday

Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan ousted by no-confidence vote on Saturday

In 2011, sharp increases in global food prices led protests that started in Tunisia and spread like wildfire across the entire Mideast in something called the "Arab Awakening." There were coups in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, and wars in Yemen and Syria are continuing to this day.

With global food and fuel prices spiking, unrest is growing in several Asian nations, and there is the prospect of a new wildfire spreading across Asia.

Ukraine has been the largest wheat exporter in the world, with countries in Asia, the Mideast and Africa largely dependent on Ukraine's exports through the Black Sea. But now Russia has shut down ports in the Black Sea, with the result that there are massive stockpiles of wheat in Ukraine that can't be exported. Russia's port blockade is creating global shortages of wheat, corn and cooking oils, resulting in food shortages and high food prices.

Fertilizer and fuel prices have also been spiking globally. This is also caused by Russia's attack on Ukraine, but is also caused by President Biden's fanatical attack on the the American fossil fuel industry.

Anti-government protests raging across Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka is in the midst of its worst economic crisis in decades, with shortages of food and fuel, and steep price rises. There are daily power custs, and people hae to queue for hours to get cooking gas and diesel.

This has led to days of sometimes violent anti-government protest, with demands that president Gotabaya Rajapaksa step down.

Watching the street protests on al-Jazeera, I saw many protesters carrying signs with slogans. Two of the most amusing slogans that I noticed were the following:

"U Divided us for a seat. Today V R uniting to throw U out of the seat."
"No need sex. The government f-cks me daily."

Sri Lanka has become the poster child for China's "debt trap diplomacy," typically signing deals with the following terms:

China loans the country a large amount of money at a high interest rate to build an infrastructure project that will benefit China. The money loaned is too large to ever hope to pay it back, and a default leads to China's full control of the infrastructure project, and other country assets.

China creates an enclave of Chinese citizens in the country to do the work for the infrastructure project, shutting out the local workforce. Their salaries are paid out of the loan money.

China purchases all services and supplies for the project from Chinese entities, so the local businesses do not benefit from the project.

China pays off the government leaders with bribes to keep them quiet, and to guarantee that the terms of the contract will remain secret.

The result is that country has to repay the loan twice, once to purchase goods and services from China and to pay the Chinese workers' salaries, and again to repay the loan to Beijing, with interest.

In 2008, Rajapaksa signed the agreement with China to build the Hambantota seaport. This was China's first major "debt trap" deal, putting Sri Lanka into so much debt that it had to hand control of the seaport over to China. Furthermore, China not only has control of the Hambantota seaport, but it also has control of a large enclave of Chinese workers and their families who are employees of the seaport. The seaport project has been a disaster for Sri Lanka.

Today, Sri Lanka is still in so much debt that it will never be paid back. This debt crisis is on top of the spike in food and fuel prices, and is triggering large anti-government riots that could spiral.

Pakistan constitutional crisis puts the government in chaos

Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan was ousted from power, after losing a no-confidence vote in parliament on Saturday. A new prime minister will be chosen next week.

Khan had created a constitutional crisis a week ago when he tried to prevent the no-confidence vote from occurring by dissolving parliament and calling for new elections. However, Pakistan's Supreme Court declared this to be illegal, and said that the no-confidence vote had to go ahead. So it did go ahead, and Khan lost.

However, it's far from clear that Khan will go quietly. He claims that he will not recognize an opposition government.

He also claims, without evidence, that there was a US-led conspiracy to remove him. It's pretty standard behavior for any politician around the world to blame their problems on the United States, and Khan is no exception.

Many people fear that Khan will refuse to step down, but will assume dictatorial power to prevent the opposition party and prime minister from taking power. This could lead to violence or even a new civil war. It's been 75 since since the 1947 Partition War between Hindus and Muslims that followed the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan, so, like much of the world, Pakistan is overdue for a new generational Crisis war. The spike in food and fuel price is hitting Karachi and the interior very hard, and that might be the trigger.

Philippines facing new election as Duterte sucks up to China

Chinese coast guard vessels and warships have been harassing Philippines fishing and research vessels in Philippine waters adjacent to the South China Sea. This harassment activity has been going on for years, as China has illegally annexed and militarized the South China Sea, including waters historically part of the Philippines, Vietnam, and other countries. When I did my research for my book "World View: War between China and Japan," I found that China has absolutely no historical claim to the South China Sea, and this is consistent the finding of the UN court in the Hague that China's claim to the South China Sea is illegal. China's claims are simply a hoax.

Ever since Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte came to power in 2016, he has sucked up to China.

In fact, in 2018, Duterte recounted a conversation with Xi Jinping that made the threat of war explicit. Xi said that if the Philippines drills for oil and gas in its own territorial waters, then China will go to war. Duterte concluded:

"Are they willing to fight? Because if they are willing to fight, we are. But why would I do that? It will result in a massacre and it will just destroy everything."

So Duterte appeased China and gave in to all of China's demands.

In a phone call on Friday between Duterte and Xi Jinping, Duterte continued his policy of appeasing China, while Xi promised to invest more money in the Philippines. However, Duterte's term as president will end in June, and a new president may or may not continue the policy of appeasing China.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 Complete Table of Contents
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/

Sources

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (10-Apr-2022) Permanent Link
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